August 11, 2010: Chance of Recession in the Next 12 Months — 00.313%

We are now running at 23 months* of consecutive sub 1% Chance of Recession as predicted by the New York Fed.

And, like last month, I have kept up my new expanded metrics.  For 35 consecutive months, my four leading indicators of Recession risk have been zero.  Not one of ’em has signaled a recession.  For the first time in just under 3 years, I have hit a signal; 2 out of 4 running months with a rising chance of recession.

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Diversity in Wake County Public Schools

Wake County Schools is huge, massive.  It ranks in the top 50 districts in the country and may be in the top 45 this year.  Compounding the challenge is the fact that the district encompasses the entire county; it’s large in terms of population and in terms of geography.

When faced with such a challenge, it’s the savvy manager that will set aside all preconceived notions of “how” and investigate all potential tools in the tool box.

And so it is that WCPSS embraced the “Diversity” policy.

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Time To Move On

Even if you’re against gay marriage, the time has come to move on.

No one wants to run on this, and they shouldn’t.  It’s a loser.

So this just makes us look dumb:

RALEIGH, N.C. — A national group touring the country to show support for traditional marriage is holding a rally in North Carolina.

The event is one of more than 20 stops on the organization’s summer bus tour.

But there is hope:

North Carolina is the only Southeastern state that hasn’t approved a state constitutional amendment restricting marriage to between one man and one woman.

Carolina may be resisting the dark side.

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Trade Debt: Is It Bad

I am a new comer to politics.  And economics.  While it’s true that I’ve always resonated with Republicans and Conservatives, I’ve never really been all that serious about it.

This has been true all the way through Bush vs. Gore; I just really didn’t care.

I guess marriage, home ownership and parenthood will do that to ya huh?

With that said, I’ve never really understood the trade deficit.  Am guessing many others don’t either.

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What We Sow We Reap

To be sure, the amount of oil spilled into the Gulf is immense.  To say that the well leaked is a disservice; it veritably gushed.  Gushed to the tune of 62,000 barrels a day slowing to 53,000 a day as the oil in the reservoir diminished the internal pressure.

That is a lot of oil.  A whole HELL of a lot of oil.

And we covered it.  Boy did we cover it.

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When the Church Says It’s Okay…

I think we’re seeing a sweeping change in how we view our gay and lesbian neighbors and friends.  Finally.

We’re seeing more and more calls for acceptance.  We’re seeing main stream acceptance in the work place and in the government.

And finally, we’re seeing laws changed to recognize the civil rights of all people.

And even the churches are coming around.

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Senate Race 2010: VIII

I have updated the races here

Without going into details, I have the Republicans picking up 7 seats and holding 48 seats.  To be sure I have my bias.

So, to see how people who actually “put their money where their mouth is” I went to Intrade.

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Hurricane Season: Update

In April I posted the National Hurricane Center’s 2010 predictions:

So, 15 named storms, 4 major himmicane’s and a 45% the US gets hit.

Then, in July I posted an update:

By the end of August, to stay on pace, we would need to see 5 or 6 named storms with 2 of them developing into severe hurricanes.

And now the Hurricane Center has revised their predictions:

The updated forecast calls for 14 to 20 named tropical storms, down from a range of 14 to 23. The hurricane season started June 1 and ends Nov. 30, but the peak period for hurricanes runs from August through October.

Eight to 12 storms could become hurricanes, and four to six of those hurricanes could become major storms, blowing winds of 111 mph or more, forecasters said.

Not much of a change at all.  However, that means we are on pace to see 11-17 named storms, 6-10 of which will become hurricanes and 4-6 of those becoming major storms before the season is over.

We’ll see.

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This is What Public Education Gets You

We continue to pour more and more money into public education and we get worse and worse results.

If this were a business, it would go out of business.

At some point, we are going to have to stop and make a decision between ideology and results.

Dollars per Year — UP

Graduation Rate — DOWN

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Evil Internet Companies?

I’m not so sure; in fact, I tend not to think so.

After all, the net works much like any other service/product.  Companies wanna profit from it.  And the best way to profit is to make it as good and fast and available as possible.

However, not everyone agrees with me.

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