I have updated the races here.
Without going into details, I have the Republicans picking up 7 seats and holding 48 seats. To be sure I have my bias.
So, to see how people who actually “put their money where their mouth is” I went to Intrade.
They have multiple contracts on the number of seats the Republicans will hold after the election. The markets are saying that there is better than a 90% chance that Republicans will take either 1, 2, 3 or 4. That is, each of those contracts is trading at better than 90%.
The biggest drop, and where the trading is less than 50%, is when you go from the Republicans taking 6 seats and them taking 7.
Here is the comparison:
The market is saying that the Republicans will take 6 seats, not 7.
I can live with that.