Category Archives: Senate

She Calls Herself Fiscally Responsible

Again with politicians making up language that fits their needs.

I once had an English teacher in high school.  We were reading “The Merchant of Venice”.  In the story, Shylock loses his estate due to a quirk of law.  On one of our tests, the English teachers asks the True or False question:

Shylock lost half of his estate due to his legal dealings with Antonio.

I answered, “False”.  After all, he lost the whole of the estate.

She marked it wrong, saying that if he lost ALL of his estate, certainly he lost half of it as well.

Words have meanings.

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They Know This Healthcare Law is Crap

It really started a long time ago.  While the Democrats controlled the Senate with a bone crushing majority, they knew, they KNEW that they had to have 60 to pass Obamacare.

So, they id what they had to do, scheduled vote after vote and passed the thing in the dead of night on Christmas Eve.  The bill wasn’t perfect, but they could send it to the House, tweak it, and get it through later.

But then Scott Brown won.  So the only option left open was for the House to pass the Senate Bill as was.  And they couldn’t do it.

Only they did.

But they knew then that what they had done was crap.

They knew it then.

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Senate Race 2010: XII

Very little has changed:

State Status Democrat Republican Incumbent Front Runner Spread
CT Ret. Dem Blumenthal McMahon Democrat Democrat 12.5
DE Ret. Dem Coons O’Donnell Democrat Democrat 17.2
IL Ret. Dem Giannoulias Kirk Democrat Republican 2.8
IN Ret. Dem Ellsworth Coats Democrat Republican 19.3
ND Ret. Dem Heitkamp Hoeven Democrat Republican 47

As you can see, there are still 3 Republican wins.

And the races with retiring Republicans is the same as well, all Republican wins.

The situation where the Democrat is facing the end of the term is also the same, only with a bit more clarity:

State Status Democrat Republican Incumbent Front Runner Spread
AR Term Dem Lincoln Boozman Democrat Republican 16.7
CA Term Dem Boxer Fiorina Democrat Democrat 6.4
CO Term Dem Bennet Buck Democrat Republican 1.6
HI Term Dem

Democrat Democrat
MD Term Dem

Democrat Democrat
NV Term Dem Reid Angle Democrat Republican 1.8
NY Term Dem Gillibrand Blakeman Democrat Democrat 22.4
NY Term Dem

Democrat Democrat
OR Term Dem Wyden Huffman Democrat Democrat 18
PA Term Dem Sestak Toomey Democrat Republican 3.2
VE Term Dem

Democrat Democrat
WA Term Dem Murray Rossi Democrat Democrat 2.2
WI Term Dem Feingold Johnson Democrat Republican 6

Still, the Republicans walk with 5.

And, where Republicans are facing the end of the term, again, no Democrat wins.

I still see an 8 seat swing for the Republicans.

Dems – 51 Republicans 49.

However, the smart money doesn’t agree with me:

You make the call.  Either way, a good day at the office for the Republicans.

Ya Get Some Right and Ya Get Some Wrong

It takes a lot of work and time and patience to get it right.  And even WITH all that investment in discipline, the most accomplished master is going to have a moment or two when he looks at his creation and….

Tosses it back.  Does it over.  Learns from his blemish.

Political movements are no different.

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Senate Race 2010: XI

Time for some status.  All the big primaries are over and we know who is running against who.

First, the Retiring Democrats:

State Status Democrat Republican Incumbent Front Runner Spread
CT Ret. Dem Blumenthal McMahon Democrat Democrat 7.5
DE Ret. Dem Coons O’Donnell Democrat Democrat 15
IL Ret. Dem Giannoulias Kirk Democrat Republican 1
IN Ret. Dem Ellsworth Coats Democrat Republican 16
ND Ret. Dem Heitkamp Hoeven Democrat Republican 27

I think we lost Delaware.  And that’s okay.  We weren’t going to take the Senate and this sent a message to the Republican establishment; Come big or Stay Home.

From my count, we moved from taking 4 to only taking 3.

The next group is the retiring Republicans.  The only news of note is that Florida is steadily moving away from I-Crist to R-Rubio.  One for the good guys:

State Status Democrat Republican Incumbent Front Runner Spread
FL Ret. Rep Crist Rubio Republican Republican 10
KS Ret. Rep Republican Republican
KY Ret. Rep Conway Paul Republican Republican 7
MO Ret. Rep Carnahan Blunt Republican Republican 5.5
NH Ret. Rep Hodes Ayotte Republican Republican 6.4
OH Ret. Rep Fisher Portman Republican Republican 13.3

We lose 0.

The biggie.  This is the one that counts; Term Limited Democrats.  In my mind, we move from taking 4 to taking 5.  Ohio went our way.

State Status Democrat Republican Incumbent Front Runner Spread
AR Term Dem Lincoln Boozman Democrat Republican 25
CA Term Dem Boxer Fiorina Democrat Democrat 5.5
CO Term Dem Bennet Buck Democrat Republican 2.4
HI Term Dem Democrat Democrat
MD Term Dem Democrat Democrat
NV Term Dem Reid Angle Democrat Democrat 0.5
NY Term Dem Gillibrand Blakeman Democrat Democrat 6
NY Term Dem Democrat Democrat
OR Term Dem Wyden Huffman Democrat Democrat 16
PA Term Dem Sestak Toomey Democrat Republican 6.8
VE Term Dem Democrat Democrat
WA Term Dem Murray Rossi Democrat Democrat 6.2
WI Term Dem Feingold Johnson Democrat Republican 8

Now, I admit, I AM ASSUMING that we win one of the three:  New York, California or Nevada.  BIG assumption.  But that’s 5 to the good.

And the Term Limited Republicans?  The news is so good I’m not even going to post it!  We lose 0.  Not even close.

That means I have the Republicans picking up 8 in the Senate.  That moves us from 59-41 to 51-49.

The Tea Party Effect

Alaska.

Delaware.

Kentucky

Watch it folks; the wave of populism is spreading and it isn’t just taking Liberal Democrats.

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Senate Race 2010: X

Labor day-Gone.

Full on campaign season-Here.

And this is what the folks who are bettin’ are sayin’:

The money says that there is a better than 50% chance the Republicans will have 49 seats after this fall’s election.

In less than 2 years since “Yes We Can”, Obama has found himself with “Change it Back”.

Senate Race 2010: IX

I have been tracking the whole Brett Favre thing; especially in Vegas and then on Intrade.  And while I was there this morning I stopped by the Midterm Senate race page and saw this:

The Number of seats expected to be held by the Republicans that clears 50% has gone up 1 from 47 to 48.  The market is clearing at 48 seats!

Excellent news on a Wednesday morning.  Almost as good as seeing the chances of Brett Favre playing again at 96%.

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Senate Race 2010: VIII

I have updated the races here

Without going into details, I have the Republicans picking up 7 seats and holding 48 seats.  To be sure I have my bias.

So, to see how people who actually “put their money where their mouth is” I went to Intrade.

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Senate Race 2010: VII

Been awhile. As predicted, the races are gelling, firming up.  There are run a ways and there are tight races.  In some cases the candidates have swapped front-runner position. Here is the rundown:

State Circumstance Democrat Republican Incumbent Front Runner Spread
CT Retiring Dem Blumenthal McMahon Democrat Democrat 16.3
DE Retiring Dem Coons Castle Democrat Republican 11
IL Retiring Dem Giannoulias Kirk Democrat Democrat 1.7
IN Retiring Dem Ellsworth Coats Democrat Republican 21
ND Retiring Dem Heitkamp Hoeven Democrat Republican 27

This is an interesting group.  And only because we are seeing a much tighter race in Illinois than folks anticipated.  The reason?  This is Barack Obama’s seat; the Dems can NOT afford to lose this one.  They are pouring it on.  My prediction?  They lose it.

+4 to the Republicans

State Circumstance Democrat Republican Incumbent Front Runner
FL Retiring Rep Crist Rubio Republican Independent
KS Retiring Rep Republican Republican
KY Retiring Rep Conway Paul Republican Republican
MO Retiring Rep Carnahan Blunt Republican Republican
NH Retiring Rep Hodes Republican Republican Republican
OH Retiring Rep Fisher Portman Republican Democrat

This one has stayed stable.  Ohio remains a wild card but so does Florida.  I stay with my original prediction that the Dems take a seat/

-1 to the Republicans.

State Circumstance Democrat Republican Incumbent Front Runner Spread
AR Term Dem Lincoln Boozman Democrat Republican 25
CA Term Dem Boxer Fiorina Democrat Democrat 4.4
CO Term Dem Bennet Norton Democrat Republican 6
HI Term Dem Democrat Democrat
MD Term Dem Democrat Democrat
NV Term Dem Reid Angle Democrat Democrat 1.6
NY Term Dem Gillibrand Blakeman Democrat Democrat 17.7
NY Term Dem Democrat Democrat
OR Term Dem Wyden Huffman Democrat Democrat 17
PA Term Dem Sestak Toomey Democrat Republican 2
VE Term Dem Democrat Democrat
WA Term Dem Murray Rossi Democrat Democrat 2
WI Term Dem Feingold Johnson Democrat Republican 2

And then this group; crazy!   Washington and Wisconsin are in the mix.  And Nevada is back in play.  I no longer think the Dems will split Colorado and Pennsylvania; the Republicans will take ’em both.  Nevada back in play with Wisconsin and Washington?  Repubs get one of ’em.

Republicans +4

And the termed Repubs?  No chance for the Democrats to steal one.

Final score?  Republicans +7.  52-48.

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