![](http://tarheelred.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/2019.05.25.Probability-of-US-Recession.jpg)
Probability of US Recession
Back in the day when Mark Perry was running Carpe Diem at his private location, I would follow his recession data. A fun leading indicator is the nugget he uses: The treasury spread data found at the NY Fed site.
Prepare yourself. Winter is coming.