We are now running at 23 months* of consecutive sub 1% Chance of Recession as predicted by the New York Fed.
And, like last month, I have kept up my new expanded metrics. For 35 consecutive months, my four leading indicators of Recession risk have been zero. Not one of ’em has signaled a recession. For the first time in just under 3 years, I have hit a signal; 2 out of 4 running months with a rising chance of recession.


















