Category Archives: Politics: National

August 11, 2010: Chance of Recession in the Next 12 Months — 00.313%

We are now running at 23 months* of consecutive sub 1% Chance of Recession as predicted by the New York Fed.

And, like last month, I have kept up my new expanded metrics.  For 35 consecutive months, my four leading indicators of Recession risk have been zero.  Not one of ’em has signaled a recession.  For the first time in just under 3 years, I have hit a signal; 2 out of 4 running months with a rising chance of recession.

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Trade Debt: Is It Bad

I am a new comer to politics.  And economics.  While it’s true that I’ve always resonated with Republicans and Conservatives, I’ve never really been all that serious about it.

This has been true all the way through Bush vs. Gore; I just really didn’t care.

I guess marriage, home ownership and parenthood will do that to ya huh?

With that said, I’ve never really understood the trade deficit.  Am guessing many others don’t either.

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What We Sow We Reap

To be sure, the amount of oil spilled into the Gulf is immense.  To say that the well leaked is a disservice; it veritably gushed.  Gushed to the tune of 62,000 barrels a day slowing to 53,000 a day as the oil in the reservoir diminished the internal pressure.

That is a lot of oil.  A whole HELL of a lot of oil.

And we covered it.  Boy did we cover it.

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Senate Race 2010: VIII

I have updated the races here

Without going into details, I have the Republicans picking up 7 seats and holding 48 seats.  To be sure I have my bias.

So, to see how people who actually “put their money where their mouth is” I went to Intrade.

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Evil Internet Companies?

I’m not so sure; in fact, I tend not to think so.

After all, the net works much like any other service/product.  Companies wanna profit from it.  And the best way to profit is to make it as good and fast and available as possible.

However, not everyone agrees with me.

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Unemployment: I’m Surprised at the Surprise

Someone has to say it.  It desperately needs to be said.

Does ANYONE know the meaning of “unexpectedly?”

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Liberty Dances

Everywhere Liberty is forced into hiding.

From the Left and, in California, from the Right.

Today, she has loosened the bonds restricting her a little more.

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How to Positively Affect Health Care Costs

Just this afternoon I experienced a classic fundamental of economics:  Consumption.

I had lunch at a pizza buffet.  All the pizza and soda I could consume for the low low price of eight dollars American.  of course I had to render to Caesar, so it REALLY was about $8.50, but I digress.

At some point I pushed away from the table satisfied; I was fat dumb and happy.  Full.

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Minimum Wage Characteristics

Interesting Characteristics of the Minimum Wage earner:  2009

  • 19% of teens who work and are paid by the hour make the minimum wage or less.
  • The % of the population over 25 and paid by the hour making minimum wage or less?  3.  3% of wage earners over 25 make minimum wage.
  • School Pays:
    • No High School Diploma:  10% of wage earners make the minimum wage
    • High School Diploma:  4% make the minimum wage
    • College Degree:  3% make the minimum wage
  • Married?  3% of people who are or have been married make the minimum wage
  • 13% of the population making the minimum wage works in the service industry.

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Tragedy of the Commons

Some time ago {okay OKAY!  It was this morning!} I was arguing with Liberals.  We were talking about what a government can do, should do and then, what they WILL do.  In our examples, we specifically were speaking about the “common good” as it relates to non-National Defense.*

For example, can/should/will the government regulate medical doctors?  How about florists?

Another example, can/should/will the government regulate the workplace safety?

And even another.  Can/should/will the government regulate food quality in our grocery stores?  How about stereo component quality?

As you can imagine, a very clear divergence of opinions evolved.

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