Been awhile. As predicted, the races are gelling, firming up. There are run a ways and there are tight races. In some cases the candidates have swapped front-runner position. Here is the rundown:
| State | Circumstance | Democrat | Republican | Incumbent | Front Runner | Spread |
| CT | Retiring Dem | Blumenthal | McMahon | Democrat | Democrat | 16.3 |
| DE | Retiring Dem | Coons | Castle | Democrat | Republican | 11 |
| IL | Retiring Dem | Giannoulias | Kirk | Democrat | Democrat | 1.7 |
| IN | Retiring Dem | Ellsworth | Coats | Democrat | Republican | 21 |
| ND | Retiring Dem | Heitkamp | Hoeven | Democrat | Republican | 27 |
This is an interesting group. And only because we are seeing a much tighter race in Illinois than folks anticipated. The reason? This is Barack Obama’s seat; the Dems can NOT afford to lose this one. They are pouring it on. My prediction? They lose it.
+4 to the Republicans
| State | Circumstance | Democrat | Republican | Incumbent | Front Runner |
| FL | Retiring Rep | Crist | Rubio | Republican | Independent |
| KS | Retiring Rep | Republican | Republican | ||
| KY | Retiring Rep | Conway | Paul | Republican | Republican |
| MO | Retiring Rep | Carnahan | Blunt | Republican | Republican |
| NH | Retiring Rep | Hodes | Republican | Republican | Republican |
| OH | Retiring Rep | Fisher | Portman | Republican | Democrat |
This one has stayed stable. Ohio remains a wild card but so does Florida. I stay with my original prediction that the Dems take a seat/
-1 to the Republicans.
| State | Circumstance | Democrat | Republican | Incumbent | Front Runner | Spread |
| AR | Term Dem | Lincoln | Boozman | Democrat | Republican | 25 |
| CA | Term Dem | Boxer | Fiorina | Democrat | Democrat | 4.4 |
| CO | Term Dem | Bennet | Norton | Democrat | Republican | 6 |
| HI | Term Dem | Democrat | Democrat | |||
| MD | Term Dem | Democrat | Democrat | |||
| NV | Term Dem | Reid | Angle | Democrat | Democrat | 1.6 |
| NY | Term Dem | Gillibrand | Blakeman | Democrat | Democrat | 17.7 |
| NY | Term Dem | Democrat | Democrat | |||
| OR | Term Dem | Wyden | Huffman | Democrat | Democrat | 17 |
| PA | Term Dem | Sestak | Toomey | Democrat | Republican | 2 |
| VE | Term Dem | Democrat | Democrat | |||
| WA | Term Dem | Murray | Rossi | Democrat | Democrat | 2 |
| WI | Term Dem | Feingold | Johnson | Democrat | Republican | 2 |
And then this group; crazy! Washington and Wisconsin are in the mix. And Nevada is back in play. I no longer think the Dems will split Colorado and Pennsylvania; the Republicans will take ’em both. Nevada back in play with Wisconsin and Washington? Repubs get one of ’em.
Republicans +4
And the termed Repubs? No chance for the Democrats to steal one.
Final score? Republicans +7. 52-48.
