So, alright. I’m guilty.
I listen to the Right. Except for my morning commute, where I listen to Brad and Britt, I get my radio and TV from the Right. My news, I get from more main stream sources; Economist, Reuters, CNBC, Wall Street Journal and NY Times.
But when I watch or listen, it’s from the Right.
So I started watching Maddow.
Posted in Elections 2010, Liberty, National
Tagged Conservative, Democrat, Liberal, Rachel Maddow, Republican
I suspect the media is much like everyone else; you get on board a winner.
For example, a study found that while it may appear that money wins elections, it’s really a winner that wins money.
But they dispute the commonly held assumption that the spending causes the win. Instead they point out that anticipated win – or possible win – will often attract the campaign money. When candidates obtain large amounts of money it is usually because they are seen to be the best candidate or the one mostly likely to win. Based on Levitt’s study of campaign spending by the same candidates against the same competitors over decades of US congressional elections, it was found that ‘the amount of money spent by the candidates hardly matters at all. A winning candidate can cut his spending in half and lose only 1% of the vote. Meanwhile, a losing candidate who doubles his spending can expect to shift the vote in his favor by only that same 1%’. The Freakonomics authors conclude that campaign spending has a very small impact on election outcomes, regardless of who does the spending.
To expect the media top act any better is, well, perhaps unfair.
But jeez…
Posted in Elections 2010, National
Tagged Abuse of Power, California, Democrat, House of Representatives, Leftist, Main Stream Media, Politics
I have been tracking the whole Brett Favre thing; especially in Vegas and then on Intrade. And while I was there this morning I stopped by the Midterm Senate race page and saw this:
The Number of seats expected to be held by the Republicans that clears 50% has gone up 1 from 47 to 48. The market is clearing at 48 seats!
Excellent news on a Wednesday morning. Almost as good as seeing the chances of Brett Favre playing again at 96%.
Posted in Elections 2010, Fun, Politics: National, Senate
Tagged Brett Favre, Minnesota Vikings, Politics, Senate
I have updated the races here. 
Without going into details, I have the Republicans picking up 7 seats and holding 48 seats. To be sure I have my bias.
So, to see how people who actually “put their money where their mouth is” I went to Intrade.
Posted in Elections 2010, Politics: National, Senate
Tagged Democrat, Politics, Republican
Been awhile. As predicted, the races are gelling, firming up. There are run a ways and there are tight races. In some cases the candidates have swapped front-runner position. Here is the rundown:
| State | Circumstance | Democrat | Republican | Incumbent | Front Runner | Spread |
| CT | Retiring Dem | Blumenthal | McMahon | Democrat | Democrat | 16.3 |
| DE | Retiring Dem | Coons | Castle | Democrat | Republican | 11 |
| IL | Retiring Dem | Giannoulias | Kirk | Democrat | Democrat | 1.7 |
| IN | Retiring Dem | Ellsworth | Coats | Democrat | Republican | 21 |
| ND | Retiring Dem | Heitkamp | Hoeven | Democrat | Republican | 27 |
This is an interesting group. And only because we are seeing a much tighter race in Illinois than folks anticipated. The reason? This is Barack Obama’s seat; the Dems can NOT afford to lose this one. They are pouring it on. My prediction? They lose it.
+4 to the Republicans
| State | Circumstance | Democrat | Republican | Incumbent | Front Runner |
| FL | Retiring Rep | Crist | Rubio | Republican | Independent |
| KS | Retiring Rep | Republican | Republican | ||
| KY | Retiring Rep | Conway | Paul | Republican | Republican |
| MO | Retiring Rep | Carnahan | Blunt | Republican | Republican |
| NH | Retiring Rep | Hodes | Republican | Republican | Republican |
| OH | Retiring Rep | Fisher | Portman | Republican | Democrat |
This one has stayed stable. Ohio remains a wild card but so does Florida. I stay with my original prediction that the Dems take a seat/
-1 to the Republicans.
| State | Circumstance | Democrat | Republican | Incumbent | Front Runner | Spread |
| AR | Term Dem | Lincoln | Boozman | Democrat | Republican | 25 |
| CA | Term Dem | Boxer | Fiorina | Democrat | Democrat | 4.4 |
| CO | Term Dem | Bennet | Norton | Democrat | Republican | 6 |
| HI | Term Dem | Democrat | Democrat | |||
| MD | Term Dem | Democrat | Democrat | |||
| NV | Term Dem | Reid | Angle | Democrat | Democrat | 1.6 |
| NY | Term Dem | Gillibrand | Blakeman | Democrat | Democrat | 17.7 |
| NY | Term Dem | Democrat | Democrat | |||
| OR | Term Dem | Wyden | Huffman | Democrat | Democrat | 17 |
| PA | Term Dem | Sestak | Toomey | Democrat | Republican | 2 |
| VE | Term Dem | Democrat | Democrat | |||
| WA | Term Dem | Murray | Rossi | Democrat | Democrat | 2 |
| WI | Term Dem | Feingold | Johnson | Democrat | Republican | 2 |
And then this group; crazy! Washington and Wisconsin are in the mix. And Nevada is back in play. I no longer think the Dems will split Colorado and Pennsylvania; the Republicans will take ’em both. Nevada back in play with Wisconsin and Washington? Repubs get one of ’em.
Republicans +4
And the termed Repubs? No chance for the Democrats to steal one.
Final score? Republicans +7. 52-48.
Almost every state has completed it’s primary. The contestants are well understood. Some folks are calling for a switch in both chambers. While I’m not following the House elections, I just don’t see it in the Senate.
Posted in Elections 2010, Politics: National, Senate
I, for one, am happy that BP put aside $20 billion into an escrow account. I’m afraid that they’ll file for bankruptcy and we’ll lose any ability to get them to pay for anything.
Michelle Bachmann isn’t so happy with that turn of events:
The president just called for creating a fund that would be administered by outsiders, which would be more of a redistribution-of-wealth fund.
Posted in Diplomacy, Elections 2010, House of Representatives
Tagged Abuse of Power, BP, Michelle Bachmann, Minnesota
Leftists. Gotta love ’em.
Take the question of having to identify yourself to the government.
On one hand they say it’s a matter of individual privacy. On the other, they say it’s their right.