Category Archives: Politics: National

Debt Super Committee

So, the bi-partisian debt committee Has admitted to failure; they are unable to reach an agreement on the gap they were to address. A couple of things:

1. There is no one that seriously thinks we have a revenue problem. If they say that they are died in the wool Statists or they are lying.

2. The committee was never really considering realm cuts to spending. They were talking about cutting the amount they were gonna increase spending. Never, ever, was the idea to spend less next year than this year.

3. Failure to reach an agreement isn’t the end of the world; we still get 1 trillion in cuts.

4. Republicans running around claiming they can’t cut the Pentagon’s budget are acting like Democrats.

5. With that said, defense spending IS called for in the constitution. Food stamps and section 8 are not.

Wealth And Distribution: II

A week and a half ago I posted about the distribution of wealth in a controlled population of people that were EXACTLY like one another.  Exactly.  They contributed to 401ks the same, they saved for houses the same, they worked at the same wages and got raises the same.  The result, after just 15 years of life?

…the poorest third of people control less than 20% of the net wealth while the richest 14% control more than 20% of the net wealth.

6/15th’s of the poorest control less money than the top 2/15ths.

I have expanded my model to include home ownership.  Again, this is done with the assumption that ALL people do the EXACT same thing in the same way.  They buy a house at the same time, in the same housing market and the home they buy is worth the same.

Here’s what we get:

Again, the money shot:

Total
Worth
$20,150.00
$41,065.00
$62,768.00
$85,282.81
$108,633.07
$132,996.30
$155,049.73
$178,141.44
$202,303.53
$227,569.27
$253,973.07
$281,551.59
$310,340.71
$340,378.62
$371,702.83
$414,013.44
$455,546.94
$498,681.75
$543,467.99
$589,958.54
$638,156.14
$687,997.39
$739,532.90
$792,816.28
$847,903.24
$904,848.64
$963,712.56
$1,024,553.38
$1,087,433.82
$1,152,418.08

The control of wealth explodes after year 15.  That’s when my peeps buy a house.  What was a net worth growing by about 30k a year now grows much quicker; near 40 or 50k a year.  And this is just by buying a home.

So, after 30 years, where is the wealth?

The total wealth is $14,112,947 with a quintile at $2,822,589.

The lowest quintile.  That group of people that control the bottom 20% of the wealth in this equal society, defined equal society, compromises fully HALF the people in that society.  The bottom HALF of our population controls just 20% of the wealth.    The top 3/30, or 1/10th or 10% control 20% of the wealth as well.  In fact, the top 3% controls as much wealth as the bottom 33%.

And we’re just 30 years into the life of the exactly average 18 year old.  We’re just at 48 years of age.  We haven’t even begun to take into account poor choices or good choices.  This model is assuming that all kids make the exact same choices with their money, career and finances.

And we STILL have “wealth distribution” issues.

California Facing Revenue Shortfall

It’s an old adage but I think it’s important to point out how often people tend to overlook it:

If you tax it, you’ll get less of it.

Politicians forget this all the time.

A case can be made that raising income tax rates at the state level won’t force people, en mass, to move.  Or, that if you reduce state income tax rates, people will move in.  I agree with this; people fundamentally chase jobs, not tax rates.  This is for people however, not corporations.

When you tax corporations at a rate that is so high that businesses begin to move to avoid those taxes, people will move too.  Further, the higher the “income” chain you go, the more able that individual is free to move.

Own your own internet widget company and live in CA.  Pay too much in taxes?  Move to Nevada, or Texas.  Are ya a gazzilionaire and just live off dividends?  Pay too much taxes?  Move to Florida.

The point is, the higher the income stream, the greater the desire to tax it.  And the greater the ability to avoid it.  These people did not amass great wealth because they are careless or foolish.  And they certainly didn’t amass that wealth in order to have it stolen from them.

They’ll move.  And when they do, the revenue expected from them will be less:

LOS ANGELES — California’s budget problems show no signs of abating.

A report released by state budget analysts on Wednesday forecasts a sharp decline in revenue for this fiscal year, which could set off more than $2 billion in new cuts in state spending in January, including a seven-day reduction in the school year for public school students.

The report by the Legislative Analyst’s Office projected that the state would fall $3.7 billion short of the $88.5 billion in revenues and transfers that was anticipated in the 2011-12 state budget approved in June. Under the terms of that budget, automatic reductions — known as trigger cuts, and specified in some detail in the budget — go into effect if revenues fall $1 billion or more short of projections.

California is a state blessed by weather and geography.  And people are fleeing the place.

Obamacare: Supreme Court

It’s looking like the Supreme Court will hear the case and issue a decision in the June 2012 time frame.  Here’s what people who bet money think:

Doesn’t look good right now.

OWS: Chapel Hill Edition

I continue to make the point that the OWS protest crowd is spinning into lawlessness and soon to be violence.  We’ve already seen rape and assault in New York and then murder in Oakland.  The proof isn’t open for debate.  Larger rallies involving Tea Party folks didn’t have even a HINT at violence.  They rallied on the day and time they said they would, they registered for permits, and when the time came to end, they went home.  But not before cleaning up after themselves.

OWS is seen urinating in public and even defecating in public.  There is no respect for private property.  These people vandalize shop keepers who refuse them restrooms.  Restrooms where they not only go to the bathroom, but wash and bathe themselves.  It’s as if they feel the world owes them.

And now, the gentle Left and it’s slow descent into chaos has come to Carolina:

Blue [Chapel Hill Chief of Police] said that officers tried to confront the crowd inside the Yates Motor building on Saturday but found some wearing masks and hoods and acting in a threatening manner.

“This was a reaction we had not encountered in any of our interactions with the ‘Occupy Chapel Hill’ group,” he said.

The “Occupy” group has been protesting peacefully for weeks outside the Chapel Hill Post Office. Supporters said the seven who were arrested Sunday were part of the group that has been at the post office.

Police said the group inside the Yates Motor building had obscured windows with large banners, and some members were posted on the roof as lookouts. Anarchists use such strategies to take over buildings and destroy property, police said.

Inside the building, police said, they found flammable material, a bag of rocks and pamphlets that discussed the number of people needed to overturn a police car.

Private buildings being “occupied”, covered windows, bags of rocks and “how to overturn a cop car”.

But this is a peaceful movement made up of young thoughtful individuals bent on a genlte revolution.

John Galt: Occupy Wall Street

It’s only going to be a matter of time before the producers go on strike.  In some ways, I think, some have.

The OWS folks are protesting some valid stuff; no one wants to bail out Wall Street banks and investment houses.  However, their message is getting lost in a mess of non-message nonsense.  We live in a society that is the envy of the world.  Our poor are richer than most country’s middle class.  We have it good.

But they continue to protest and occupy.  What they don’t realize is that this is being done only by the “tolerance” of others.  At some point, we’re gonna tire of this and they are going to have to leave.  In some cases, this is already occurring:

Small business owners and local residents fed up with the “Occupiers” at Zuccotti Park in New York City are planning a counterprotest and news conference of their own Monday, to make clear the crowd has long overstayed its welcome — and that businesses will not survive if the “occupation” continues.

In recent days, shopkeepers, restaurant owners and others with small businesses located near Zuccotti Park have been quietly meeting to share stories of the damage they say has been caused by Occupy Wall Street: theft of property, vandalism, threats, violence and even incidents involving the throwing of fecal matter.

The producers are tired.  And they’re starting to protest.  They are going to weigh in and demand their time.  It’s one thing for young impressionable kids to take to the streets for an afternoon to protest some social wrong.  It’s who we are and helps build an internal compass that we’ll use as we continue to build life experience.  It’s another thing altogether to just sit and be pissed that people aren’t throwing $100k money at’cha for a freakin’ degree in Women’s Studies*.

And it goes further than just the business owners; it’s hitting the people who feel they have a responsibility to deliver:

The flyers were printed out by a 46-year-old unemployed teacher named Leslie who has spearheaded the counterprotest efforts. She asked her last name not be used out of concern the protesters would retaliate against her, and that her involvement in the counterprotest might negatively affect her job search.

“It’s time for them to go,” Leslie said of the Occupiers.

Leslie makes no effort to conceal her disgust.

“They say they are the 99 percent. Let me tell you, I’m unemployed and I lost my unemployment benefits after 99 weeks. I had to move in with my mother—I’m a true 99 percenter,” she said.

A police officer who was posted at the perimeter of the park for seven days said he would be attending the Monday event out of uniform, “as a protester and fed-up New Yorker.”

“After speaking with many of them, I realize they are unemployable takers,” he said, asking that his name not be used. “They just want to be able to tell their friends, ‘Hey, I was there.’ There is no leader, no voice. They have money in the bank but can’t agree on using it and no one knows who controls it.

“I’m sick of it. Fed up like everyone else.”

They’re losing the unemployed and the cops.  It won’t be long now.  John Galt is going to speak up and when he does, this is all over.

By the way, an illustration of the civility and respect these animals have:

These protesters—they’re not even protesters, they don’t know anything—they are horrible. They break things, they steal, I have to close my bathrooms and bring customers downstairs [to employee restrooms],” he said.

“You should see what they have done to my gate, what they do every night when we are closed,” he said, referring to vandalism and damage to the exterior of his restaurant.

One of his employees said the urination and fecal matter in the neighborhood are among the worst of the problems. A construction worker who works nearby said he saw someone defecating into a newspaper, which was then rolled up and thrown across the street.

“What they do is horrible, it is just horrible,” Corstales said.

Classy.  Not one time, not ONE time ever, did you hear of a Tea Party protester shit in a newspaper and throw it in the street.  Ever.

* Don’t get me wrong.  There’s nothing WRONG with women’s studies, there isn’t.  However, no one hires people because they are a Women’s Studies major.  When I hire people, I’m looking for applicable skills to fill the position.  And to be honest, I like to see soft science minors or focuses and I’ll even direct significant time of the interview on that.  However, that is a component of study that rounds out a candidate, not defines that candidate.

Rape, Violence, Assault and Murder: OWS

The OWS nonsense has gone on too long now.  If it isn’t enough that we have women being raped and individuals being assault, we have murder in the OWS protests:

OAKLAND, Calif. – Leaders across the country felt increasing pressure Friday to shut down Occupy encampments after two men died in shootings and another was found dead from a suspected combination of drugs and carbon monoxide poisoning caused by a propane heater inside a tent.

City officials have long been reluctant to enforce law on these protests.  I suspect in some cases the officials are actually on the side of the OWS folks.  And in other cases, were afraid of the consequences.

Well, the time has past for the protesters; it’s time to move on:

Late in the afternoon, police officers acting at the direction of Mayor Jean Quan distributed fliers to protesters warning that the camp violates the law and must be disbanded immediately. The notices warned campers they would face arrest if tents and other materials were not removed, although the warnings did not say by when.

It’s time, children, to put your fun signs away, go home and shower, and try to find meaningful other things to do with your life.

This movement is officially over.

2012 Election: Republican Primary November 11, 2011

Right now, the race is for 2nd place.  Until we’re down to two, I don’t think that we’ll have a clear idea of who’s gonna win this thing.  Some time ago, I predicted that Perry would fade as well as Cain.  While I think that I’ve been proven right, Cain has continued to surprise me.  Except for this most recent scandal, he’s been rising in the polls and rising pretty quick.  However, the scandal did hit and he’s suffered.

My biggest prediction was that Gingrich would be the contender to take on Romney.  I think Gingrich is the smartest guy on the stage, has a history of getting things done and just speaks with a confidence that will set people at ease.  He’s clear, he’s concise and he just talks common sense.

I think that my prediction is playing out:

Newt Gingrich has jumped to second place and Herman Cain has dropped to third among Republican voters’ preferences for which candidate should win the GOP presidential nomination, according to a new poll.

According to the McClatchy-Marist Poll, Mitt Romney leads the Republican pack with 23 percent. Gingrich is next with 19 percent, followed by Cain with 17 percent.

It’s time for the pretenders to bow out.  I suppose they’ll work towards the first round of primaries, and that might be fair, but the sooner we can weed out the lower tier candidates, the better off we’ll be.

By the way, for fun, check this out:

 

Wealth and Distribution

Occupy Wall Street is having an impact.  There’s little doubt that they have generated much conversation and debate.  Some think that the impact they’ve had is positive; others negative.  For me, it’s focused the debate on income distribution, income mobility and wealth distribution.

We’ve talked about the GINI.  That’s the tool, in general, that measures distribution.  It could be World Series Titles or brown hair.  It could be the letter “W” in license plates or it could be income.  And I’ve come to the conclusion that the GINI, as reported by the major players, isn’t reporting anything useful.  The GINI measures income per family.  And all families aren’t created equal.

So, next up is wealth.  This time I built a thought experiment.  A simple and crude one to be sure, but, based on feedback, could be refined.  In fact, it’s my goal to refine it as I go.  The idea is to create a world that is as equal as possible.  I’ve built a population that is the same in every regard.  They make the same, save the same and spend the same.  And they advance the same.  Given such a world, what does income and wealth distribution look like?

Let’s look at wealth.

I assume a number of things.  All in the name of equality:

  1. 1000 people per year
  2. A starting salary of $30,000
  3. A raise of 3% a year.
  4. Progressive living: roommate-own apartment-saving for home
  5. Progressive retirement savings – none to 401k
  6. Rent and food don’t increase in real terms
  7. People only have living and food expenses.  And save ALL other money.

If we start at year 1 and continue to build our population, it looks like this for the first 15 years:

The graphics are tough to see without clicking through.  Lemme give ya the money shot:

Total
Worth
$20,150.00
$41,065.00
$62,768.00
$85,282.81
$108,633.07
$132,996.30
$155,049.73
$178,141.44
$202,303.53
$227,569.27
$253,973.07
$281,551.59
$310,340.71
$340,378.62
$371,702.83

Using the gross assumptions above, I have identified the “Total Worth” of the individuals year over year.

Each row above represents another cohort advancing and the previous year taking it’s place.  That is, this year’s “Year Ones” becomes next year’s “Year Twos”, And this year’s “Year Twos” become next year’s “Year Threes”.

We like to break down distributions by quintiles.  Let’s do that.  Let’s break it down by quintile.

If you sum all the wealth of the 15 represented years, you get $2,771,905.  If you divide $2,771,905 by 5 you get $554,381.  The first SIX years of cohort classes don’t equal one single quintile.  On the other end of the spectrum, just 2 cohort classes are at $712,081.  Nearly 40% more than the top quintile.  In other words, more than the poorest third of people control less than 20% of the net wealth while the richest 14% control more than 20% of the net wealth.

6/15th’s of the poorest control less money than the top 2/15ths.

And this in a world controlled by exact equality and accounting for no good/bad decisions.

Newt Gingrich and Michael Moore

Oh, and Lawrence O’Donnell too.

I’m watching The Last Word with Lawrence tonight as I’m working a little on Tarheel.  The topic of the night, at least the lead topic, is the Republican debate.  And his second guest segment is with Michael Moore.  You know, the guy that hates capitalism.  Yeah, him.  Anyway, this is classic.

I’ll put the video up as soon as they have it on the you tubes.

Okay, so it starts like this:

Newt: [hypothetical question to an OWS protester] Who’s gonna pay for the park you’re occupying if there are no businesses making a profit?

Lawrence: Introduces Moore.

Banter between Moore and Lawrence
Moore: I think he’s got it mixed up though when he says “if it wasn’t for the corporation, there wouldn’t be a park there.”  I seem to remember, ah, in America, parks are developed by the local governments —

Lawrence: Mmmm hmmm

Moore: — for the people by the people let the people picnic and do things.  I don’t ever remember a corporate park.

Lawrence: You don’t have to buy a ticket.

More head exploding nonsense follows.

For clarification:

Zuccotti Park:

Zuccotti Park, formerly called Liberty Plaza Park, is a 33,000-square-foot (3,100 m2) publicly accessible park in Lower Manhattan, New York City, privately owned by Brookfield Properties. The park was created in 1968 by United States Steel, after the property owners negotiated its creation with city officials, and named Liberty Plaza Park and situated beside One Liberty Plaza. It is located between Broadway, Trinity Place, Liberty Street and Cedar Street. The park’s northwest corner is across the street from Four World Trade Center. It has been popular with local tourists and financial workers.

The park, once known as Liberty Plaza Park, is owned by A CORPORATION!  I think I should say that again.  The park, the place where OWS is gathering, is not a public park.  It is a private park owned by a CORPORATION!

Newt knows this.  I know this.  Every fuckin’ body knows this.

Except Lawrence O’Donnell and Michael Moore.

It is SO owned by a corporation that THIS happened:

The park was heavily damaged in the September 11 attacks and subsequent recovery efforts of 2001. The plaza was later used as the site of several events commemorating the anniversary of the attacks. After renovations in 2006, the park was renamed by its current owners, Brookfield Office Properties, after company chairman John Zuccotti.

After being damaged in the terrorist attacks, the park once known as LIBERTY PARK for chrise’sakes, was renamed Zuccotti park after the COMPANY CHAIRMAN!

They changed the name of the park from Liberty Park to the name of their CHAIRMAN!

This park can’t GET any more corporate.

Michael Moore is an ass.  And a dumb one too.