Tag Archives: Recession

More Random Thoughts on Unemployment

Posted on August 18, 2010 | Leave a comment

Monday I saw that my local McDonald’s was still trying to get someone to fill their manager position. They have had their help wanted sign up for 26+ days. Yesterday I stopped to get lunch for the wifey and saw this:

At some point we have to call this what it really is.  Something besides “I can’t find a job”.

The simple fact is that when the government is willing to pay you virtually the same amount of money to stay home rather than work, the reasonable person is going to stay home rather than work.

Add to FacebookAdd to DiggAdd to Del.icio.usAdd to StumbleuponAdd to RedditAdd to BlinklistAdd to TwitterAdd to TechnoratiAdd to Yahoo BuzzAdd to Newsvine

Leave a comment

Posted in Economics, Economy

Tagged , ,

In Good Company

Posted on August 17, 2010 | 1 comment

Just as I uploaded my most recent post to Twitter, I saw that Cato referenced a post by Jeffrey Miron, an Economics Professor at Harvard.

He basically says the same thing I do:

On several occassions over the past few weeks, I have expressed the view on TV/radio that unemployment insurance is one factor that keeps unemployment elevated.

Not that a Sr. Fellow at the Cato Institute needs any backup, he brings it with an article from the NY Times:

Struggling to keep its budget under control after the financial crisis, the government in June cut into its benefits system, the world’s most generous, by limiting unemployment payments to two years instead of four. Having found that recipients either get work right away or take any job as their checks run out, officials are also redoubling longstanding efforts to move Danes more quickly out of the safety net.

It would appear that this long hair isn’t stewing alone in his own juices.

Add to FacebookAdd to DiggAdd to Del.icio.usAdd to StumbleuponAdd to RedditAdd to BlinklistAdd to TwitterAdd to TechnoratiAdd to Yahoo BuzzAdd to Newsvine

1 Comment

Posted in Economics, Politics: International, Politics: National, Welfare

Tagged ,

Random Thoughts on Unemployment

Posted on August 17, 2010 | Leave a comment

So, grabbin lunch yesterday.  Stopped into the local McDonald’s for a quick [and icky] lunch.

They have a really cool series of Happy Meal toys for boys right now; Marvel Super Heros.  So, I picked one up for Tyler:

Cool huh?  Guess what else I saw?

Continue reading →

Leave a comment

Posted in Economics, Economy

Tagged ,

August 11, 2010: Chance of Recession in the Next 12 Months — 00.313%

Posted on August 11, 2010 | Leave a comment

We are now running at 23 months* of consecutive sub 1% Chance of Recession as predicted by the New York Fed.

And, like last month, I have kept up my new expanded metrics.  For 35 consecutive months, my four leading indicators of Recession risk have been zero.  Not one of ’em has signaled a recession.  For the first time in just under 3 years, I have hit a signal; 2 out of 4 running months with a rising chance of recession.

Continue reading →

Leave a comment

Posted in Economics, Economy, Politics: National

Tagged ,

Unemployment: I’m Surprised at the Surprise

Posted on August 5, 2010 | Leave a comment

Someone has to say it.  It desperately needs to be said.

Does ANYONE know the meaning of “unexpectedly?”

Continue reading →

Leave a comment

Posted in Economy, Politics: National

Tagged , ,

Unemployment?

Posted on July 22, 2010 | 1 comment

Wanna know what happens when Congress passes a law that gives away free money to people who don’t have jobs?  And haven’t had jobs for better than 99 weeks?

This; THIS is what you get:

They are willing to hire managers.  Not line employees, but managers.  Experience?  They only PREFER it, not require it.

Government is creating this unemployment mess.  Stop paying benefits, reduce the tax on jobs and remove the minimum wage.

Add to FacebookAdd to DiggAdd to Del.icio.usAdd to StumbleuponAdd to RedditAdd to BlinklistAdd to TwitterAdd to TechnoratiAdd to Yahoo BuzzAdd to Newsvine

1 Comment

Posted in Economics

Tagged ,

Some Notes on Chance of Recession

Posted on July 12, 2010 | 1 comment

Last month, I posted the NY Fed’s “Chance of Recession” spread.  It’s a fun little chart that shows the chance that our economy will be in recession in the next 12 months.  It’s SUPER fun now because the value is about as low as it’s ever been; 00.041%.

TJIC called shenanigans:

So you think that the chance of a recession is 200:1 against?

Tell you what, I’ll offer you great odds – 100:1 (that’s twice what the data suggests).

Good point.

Continue reading →

1 Comment

Posted in Economics, Economy, Politics: National

Tagged , ,

June 6, 2010: Chance of Recession in the Next 12 Months — 00.041%

Posted on June 5, 2010 | 2 comments

If anything has changed in the last month it’s the fact that the chance of recession reduced by 20%.  We went from the ridiculously low chance of .055% all the way down to .041%.  The only times in the last 50 years it has been this low was in 1983 for 2 consecutive months; August and September.

As for the “current” recession, NBER takes an exceptionally long time to officially declare the end, up to 24 months.  As I have been on the record as saying, I think the recession ended late May 2009; NBER won’t score it until January 2011, longer if I am wrong.

Add to FacebookAdd to DiggAdd to Del.icio.usAdd to StumbleuponAdd to RedditAdd to BlinklistAdd to TwitterAdd to TechnoratiAdd to Yahoo BuzzAdd to Newsvine

2 Comments

Posted in Economics, Economy, Politics: National

Tagged , ,

The Power of Markets

Posted on May 31, 2010 | Leave a comment

In an effort to drive sales and increase profit, Wal-Mart is doing the unconscionable.  Well known for being the outlet of poorer American’s, Wal-Mart is raising prices on all basic needs products.  This, in the middle of the current economic struggle we’re going through is proof enough that Wal-Mart is evil.

Huh?  Wait?  That’s not accurate?

Continue reading →

Leave a comment

Posted in Economics, Economy

Tagged , , ,

This is Why I Got Out of Teaching

Posted on May 18, 2010 | Leave a comment

Look.  It’s hard out there right now.  Lot’s of people are struggling, concerned and sacrificing.  Many people are losing or have lost their job.  And I feel for all of ’em.

Continue reading →

Leave a comment

Posted in Economy, Education, Politics: North Carolina, Raising Men

Tagged , , , , , ,