Last month, I posted the NY Fed’s “Chance of Recession” spread. It’s a fun little chart that shows the chance that our economy will be in recession in the next 12 months. It’s SUPER fun now because the value is about as low as it’s ever been; 00.041%.
TJIC called shenanigans:
So you think that the chance of a recession is 200:1 against?
Tell you what, I’ll offer you great odds – 100:1 (that’s twice what the data suggests).
Good point.