If anything has changed in the last month it’s the fact that the chance of recession reduced by 20%. We went from the ridiculously low chance of .055% all the way down to .041%. The only times in the last 50 years it has been this low was in 1983 for 2 consecutive months; August and September.
As for the “current” recession, NBER takes an exceptionally long time to officially declare the end, up to 24 months. As I have been on the record as saying, I think the recession ended late May 2009; NBER won’t score it until January 2011, longer if I am wrong.
> .041%
So you think that the chance of a recession is 200:1 against?
Tell you what, I’ll offer you great odds – 100:1 (that’s twice what the data suggests).
If we stay out of recession, I’ll give you $10.
If we go back in, you give me $1,000.
Interested?
If not, then I suggest that you don’t actually trust those numbers.
If we stay out of recession, I’ll give you $10.
If we go back in, you give me $1,000.
Gotta admit, when placed in that context, it changes the tone and timber.
Interested?
No.
I can get better numbers at:
http://www.intrade.com/aav2/trading/contractInfo.jsp?conDetailID=693074&z=1275928398323#