Steady upwards track since April. Intrade has it at 75% that the law is struck down.
Good.
Here I am showing Kells how to create a page break.
So I type a “howl” lotta cool stuff:
Pino Rocks. Pino is always right. Pino is great.
Pino Rocks. Pino is always right. Pino is great.
Pino Rocks. Pino is always right. Pino is great.
And NOW I wanna insert a “Page Break” right after this sentence.
So I go to the Tool Bar above and look for the row of symbols that has a “B” as the first character:
Then I slide over 11 icons until I see the “Rectangle dotted line Rectangle” icon.
When I do, it looks like this:
I hit “enter” and type away.
Viola!
Black is happy!
To be fair, I don’t think that Jon Stewart, CNN or the reporter are bias in their reporting. For his sake, Stewart is just running a clip that makes his point and probably just missed it.
But for CNN and the reporter, their mistake is a little bit more egregious. Again, I don’t think there’s bias, rather, they think they have a story – they might well have- and they are just trying to push the numbers they have to make that story more compelling.
Watch. Hint, it’s all over by 00:35
The error was in the numbers the CNN reporter was displaying.
Here is the graphic she used:
So the numbers and the graph are:
The graph accurately reflects the White unemployment. The graph does NOT reflect AfricanAmerican unemployment. In fact, it shows it lower. Then again, the graph doesn’t show Hispanic unemployment correctly either, however it too shows the data as lower than the raw numbers.
Which is right?
Let’s listen:
… in the black community 14% compared to whites which is 7%. Latino community 11% compared to white’s 7%.
In the dialogue we have white unemployment at 7%. Both the data and the chart show it at 7.4% She reports that black unemployment is 14% but the data shows 13.6% and the chart shows 13%. Depending on which you believe, that’s a whole point. Next she moves to Latinos. In both comparisons she mentions 11%; consistent with the data but not the graph.
Again, I don’t think there is bias here. Jon is setting the table for his bit. But Lordy, how do we trust that these people are saying true things?
I’ve been posting data that comes from the book “The Bell Curve” in a rather chapter by chapter format. I started with Poverty and then moved to Education. This post deals with Employment.
I should mention that the data discussed comes from a study the authors use throughout their book. They have decided to use this data because of the size, scope and amount of relevant data points gathered. That study is The National Longitudinal Survey of Youth [NLSY].
From the book:
The NLSY is a very large [12,686 persons], nationally representative sample of American youths aged 14-22 in 1979, when the study began, and have been followed ever since.
In the beginning chapters of the book, the authors use the NLSY extensively. However, the work that they have done and the results being shown in these early chapters are the result of including only non-Latino whites in the analysis. I’ll explain the authors reasoning in following posts – or you can go ahead and read it for yourself 😉
The next sets of data will show the impact that the socioeconomic status of the individual’s background has on employment and unemployment. First, let’s take a look at the probability that an individual has of being out of the labor force for at least 1 month in 1989:
Interesting curve. In all the data we’ve seen so far, the curve is to the advantage of the more wealthy households. In this case, the probability of leaving the labor force goes up as a kid’s parent’s wealth grows. *
Now, let’s look at the same group of folks in the same year but instead of being out of the labor force, let’s measure unemployment:
Virtually straight. It really doesn’t matter how wealthy your background is when predicting unemployment.
The impact of SES on the employment and/or unemployment of individuals is hard to gauge. I’m guessing that with further context it’ll make more sense.
* The authors felt this was strange; I don’t. Rich kids can afford not to work.
Posted in Economics, Middle Class, The Bell Curve
Tagged Employment, Socioeconomic, Unemployment
Both sides cry foul when it comes to the media. Both sides have data that show the other sides gets preferential treatment when it comes to coverage of “their guy” and they can come up with chapter and verse that shows the positive/negative for the other side is skewed.
It’s fun.
But this, THIS, right here, is crazy.
Here MSNBC doesn’t just take a video and start it at a point that clouds the context or ends it at a point that clouds the context. No. They actually parse the video, showing a clip from an early section, cutting in a piece from another section and finally end it all with yet another cutting later on.
I hear they even added a laughing track.
Check it out:
That isn’t selective reporting. That isn’t commentary that favors one version of ideology over another.
THAT is a blatant distortion of the entire conversation.
THAT is media bias.
Posted in Elections 2012, Politics: National
Tagged Andrea Mitchell, Media Bias, Mitt Romney, MSNBC
On Monday I posted on the impact of parental socioeconomic status as it pertains to their children’s educational outcomes. In reviewing the post I failed to display 1 of 3 findings the authors made. I think I did this because the data failed to demonstrate a point that I will be anxious to make in future posts regarding the book.
I will post now the data that speaks to kids who drop out of school only to later come back and earn their GED instead of obtaining a high school dipploma. The graph is here:
As you can see, SES has a large impact on whether or not a child obtains a GED or stays in school to earn her high school diploma. The wealthiest families generate graduates 9x more often than the poorest families of kids who drop out but come back to earn either their GED or diploma.
Posted in Economics, Education, Middle Class, Politics: National, The Bell Curve
Last week I posted on the impact that socioeconomic status had on childhood poverty. I don’t think anyone was surprised to see that children who come from parents/mothers with a lower standard of living have a greater chance of growing up poor than children whose parents/mother had a higher standard of living:
The data is hard to argue with. The “well off-ness” of the parents seems to have a powerful impact on the chance of poverty of a child.
The book continues this investigation as it relates to education, both high school and college.
First, the authors discuss high school and the rate of drop-outs. That is, what is the probability of a kid finishing high school? And they took a look at this through the lens of the socioeconomic status of the child’s parents. Again, the scale is broken into 5 parts; the median is in the middle and from the center the scale moves on by 1 standard deviation and then another.
When everything else is held constant, the probability of dropping out of school based on the socioeconomic status of the parents looks like this:
The data is striking. Kids from poorer households dropout of high school a very higher rates than kids from wealthier households. If you look at the extremes, the poorest kids drop out at a rate ~10x as high as the kids from the wealthiest households.
Now take a minute and consider college education and obtaining a 4 year degree. Consider what you might expect the data to show. If the data is consistent with our previous peeks into the impact that SES has on aspects of kids, we might make a pretty good guess.
Here’s the data:
Just as we might expect. The role of the socioeconomic status of the parents is a powerful one for kids who wanna obtain a college degree. Everything else being equal, there is almost no chance that a kid coming from the poorest families will achieve the the thrill of obtaining a diploma while the same kid from our wealthiest families has near a 40% of graduating.
As we close this section I’m struck by two things:
1. Even our richest families are producing college graduates at a less than 40% clip.
2. The wealth of a kids family continues to play a powerful role.
Posted in Economics, Education, Middle Class, Politics: National, The Bell Curve
Tagged Charles Murray, Education, Richard Herrnstein, Socioeconomic