Tag Archives: Recession

Too Big To Fail

HBO has the documentary “Too Big To Fail” playing right now.  Ive watched it twice now and I have some thoughts.

  1. The whole “For profit” meme is prevalent.
  2. There is a massive lack of backdrop regarding market incentives.

First, the show is top notch.  The acting is A grade and the quality of the production is excellent.  This is a great movie.

I’m a big believer in incentives.  People tend to look out for their own self interests.  Always have, always will.  And this isn’t bad – wolves and cows and sparrows and gophers do the same thing.  But we NEED to acknowledge that fact.

“Too Big To Fail” does a remarkable job at showing the thinking going on at the time of the failures.  But I get the feeling that the message is wrong.  That the message is “Greed”.

There is certainly enough to go around.  However, I think the message of intervention and policy is underscored.  Not one time in the show is it mentioned WHY these institutions would make these loans.  For sure, there is talk about Fan and Fred being nationalized….but there isn’t a whiff about the impact they had on the market thinking.

The movie is worth watching.  However, understand, it’s got a Left leaning slant.

And does a good job making that case.

 

 

Housing Market: Foreclosures and Defaults

We have a long way to go folks.

If you need further proof, just check out this story:

Strategic default — opting to walk away from a mortgage you can afford — isn’t a new phenomenon in the housing crisis. But with home values continuing to decline, more owners are finding themselves in a position where they may see it as a savvy business decision to destroy their credit rather than wait years for prices to recover.

Likier put almost 20 percent down to purchase a $312,000 townhouse in Westmont in 2006 and lived there until two years ago, when he remarried and bought a home in Chicago Ridge.

He listed the townhouse for $249,000, figuring he would bring $20,000 to the closing table to facilitate a deal. The listing has since dropped to $179,000, which is lower than the unit sold for when it was built in 1999. He stopped paying the mortgage in January and recently was served with foreclosure papers.

And the real killer?

Despite the fact that he and his wife are employed and have an annual household income near $150,000, he’s comfortable with his decision.

Yowza.  A tough decision.  And one I agree with.

See, when working with contracts and finances, the deal is what the deal is.  The bank is no more willing to do the right thing” than you should be.

So this makes sense:

“I did a lot of soul-searching about whether it was morally the right thing to do,” he said. “I felt there was no moral obligation to make a payment. The contract says it’s a financial obligation, not a moral obligation.

“I was in a boat with a slow leak. It was manageable, but I know I was slowly sinking.”

Until we stop that sinking, we’re going to see more and more of this.

So How Is Obama Doin’ With The Economy

We all wanna compare; we wanna know.  How is one team vs. another?  How am I compared to my peers?  So, it’s only natural that we do the same thing for the economy and how we’re managing our way out of it.

So.  How is Mr. Obama doing?

Well, let’s look.

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Thought On Affordable Housing

I spent an awesome weekend camping with an awesome bunch of guys and their awesome daughters.  6 dads, 6 girls.  Lots of fun; little sleep.

However, we did have the chance to talk loud and sound smart after the little princesses went to bed.  One night, after awhile, the conversation touched, touched I tell you, on politics and specifically the housing crisis.

I need your thoughts.

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Lending Money

There’s all kinds of reasons why people want to borrow money.  Mostly, though, there are two:

  1. They need the money now.  A bill has to be paid or service will be turned off.
  2. They want something now.  A purchase is to be made and saving the money isn’t desirable.

In any case, an individual is taking current value of money in trade for some future value of money.  And current money is more valuable than future money; I’d rather have $20 now than $20  later.  So, to compensate for that, money lenders charge interest.  While I would rather have that 20 bucks now, I might be willing to hold off if I could get 25 bucks next week.

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I Don’t Think That Word Means What You Think It Means

The most famous line in the world: North Carolina State Politics Edition.

With a charging Republican majority in North Carolina, the State is getting ready to make some serious budget cuts.  People are going to have to sacrifice, to be sure.  And the deeper and sooner that sacrifice occurs, the better off the financial stability of the State.

Yet, no one can accept that fact.

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Unemployment in North Carolina: Up

Troubling news in the Tar Heel State.

RALEIGH — Unemployment rates increased in 99 of North Carolina’s 100 counties in November, according to statistics released today by the state’s Employment Security Commission. The rate remained the same in Davie
County.

Not so good.  I continue to hope for the best here in North Carolina, but we continue to struggle.  I’m not sure why.  Even though we are a Democrat dominated State, and have been for well over 100 years, even the Democarst have been relatively pro-business here in North Carolina.

I suspect that the reason we continue to see jobs drift away is that we have been so heavily dependent on furniture and textile mills.  And, as we all know, that work has been moving over seas for some time now.

I’ll have to do some research to see how long it took other cities [see Pittsburgh] to recover as they saw their jobs vanish.  In any event, let’s hope that 2011 does better than 2010:

Over the year, the unemployment rates dropped in 81 counties, remained the same in one county, and increased in 18.

So, year over year, Carolina has dropped its unemployment, but only by 0.7%.

 

 

Chance of Recession in 2011: Low

Lot’s of us think that we’re STILL in recession [ it ended June 2009 ] and many of us don’t see anything getting better any time soon.

But the good news is that it will get better, slowly, and it almost certainly won’t get worse in 2011.

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This And That

So, lemme get this straight.

We’re in debt.  All of us.  And by a TON.

So we have to make cuts.  A LOT of ’em.

Tough decisions to be sure.

Or is it?

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Economic Recovery: Make it a Grande

An indication of economic health of America is…Starbucks.

As we feel that we can or can’t afford the luxury of massively overpriced coffee, we are able to judge the health of the economy.

And the how has Starbucks done?

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