Tag Archives: Recovery

March Jobs: Headline Oops

From my local news source, the AP announced:

Fourth straight month of strong US hiring expected

This was announced at 06:58 AM this morning.

Then, reality:

US economy adds 120K jobs, jobless rate at 8.2 pct

I sure do hope the economy continues to recover.  I say this knowing that it will buoy an Obama election effort, however, it’s time for the uncertainly in the nation’s economy to shift to robust growth.

With that said, I am not sure this current recovery will be either long lived or robust.

Recession Recovery: Unemployment – Obama, Bush, Clinton and Reagan

I have posted on a comparison of the last major recessions.  The first such comparison featured the GDP growth as we march through that recovery.  Each President; Obama, Bush, Clinton and Reagan had a shot at a recovery.

This post will feature the unemployment rate as we continue from recession to recovery.  This specific comparison, or feature, will look at the raw unemployment rate.  All data is taken from the BLS.gov website.

So, what does the data show?

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Recession: Obama, Bush, Clinton and Reagan

We are now 7 quarters into our recovery from the previous recession.  I have long thought it time to conduct a review of this current recovery as compared to previous recoveries.

I have gone back to the previous 4 recessions and their recoveries.  Above is a graph showing the growth of GDP for each recovery starting with the date in which the NBER calls each recession cycle.

The numbers above reflect the GDP growth in current dollars. Further, I have only gone out 12 quarters, or 3 years.  Anything past this and I think we have normal economic cycles taking place that have little to do with the recovery efforts put in place during the recessions described.

There has been little secret that the current administration holds the previous administration responsible for the recession.  However, if that is true, the current administration is responsible for the recovery.  So, how has it done?

At this point, the Obama’s recovery is only slightly ahead of any of the other 3.  The current quarter represented a 4.0% increase in GDP over the previous quarter.  The only other recovery that had a worse showing was the Reagan recovery of 1982; it had a 3.9% increase.  However, unlike the Obama recovery, the Reagan recovery had significant growth for the first 6 quarters.  Obama’s recovery has not shown that degree of success.

Reagan vs Obama

Here is the direct comparison:

The visual is clear, the Reagan recovery was much more vibrant than the current Obama recovery.  While Obama did better this quarter, the lack of growth in the preceding quarters is disappointing.

Obama vs Bush

Perhaps a more damning comparison, at least for this specific political cycle, is the comparison of Obama vs Bush:

Here the Obama recovery is very similar to the previous Bush recovery.  However, the pressure is on.  Beginning in the 8th quarter on, Bush had a very impressive record of strong GDP growth.

We’ll see if Obama is able to match that record.

Economic Recovery: Make it a Grande

An indication of economic health of America is…Starbucks.

As we feel that we can or can’t afford the luxury of massively overpriced coffee, we are able to judge the health of the economy.

And the how has Starbucks done?

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