Monthly Archives: November 2011

The Greatest 14 Seconds of Football Ever

Posted on November 21, 2011 | Leave a comment

TK.

#9.

Better drunk than sober.

Down by 1, 14 seconds and 80 yards.

But we had Ahmad.

By the way, how did the Vikings win the NFC central against the Browns?

What the what?

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The Deficit: Why It’s a Spending Problem

Posted on November 21, 2011 | 6 comments

You can pick any significant number of consecutive years you want.  Any, say 10-15 years.  And compare the receipts from one year to the prior year.  See what ya get.  For example, I’ll pick the most recent set of years; 2000 through the estimates for 2016.  Look:

There are 16 possible opportunities for receipts to go up or down.  Of those 16, they go up for 12 of ’em.  The time frames when they are going down is after the recession of 2000 and the shock of the 9/11 attacks.  The second time frame is during the most recent recession.  Other than that, the tax receipts increase.  In fact, if you go back further than 2000, the next most recent decrease in revenues comes in the 1982-1983 year.  That’s 17 consecutive years of tax growth.

So, what does this tell us?

It tells us that those who are calling for tax increases in order to satisfy the “increase revenue” meme aren’t looking at the full picture.  Left alone, taxes will deliver year over year growth.

In fact, if you take the historic annual tax receipt increase since after the war and assume that going forward, you can easily balance the budget.  For example, if we allow the budget to GROW, that is no cuts, but only grow by 2%, we have a balanced budget in 2023:

Easy.

Limit spending.  Don’t raise taxes.  Balance the budget in 12 years.

It’s spending people, spending.  W do NOT have a taxing problem.

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Posted in Economy, Government, Politics: National

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Debt Super Committee

Posted on November 21, 2011 | 5 comments

So, the bi-partisian debt committee Has admitted to failure; they are unable to reach an agreement on the gap they were to address. A couple of things:

1. There is no one that seriously thinks we have a revenue problem. If they say that they are died in the wool Statists or they are lying.

2. The committee was never really considering realm cuts to spending. They were talking about cutting the amount they were gonna increase spending. Never, ever, was the idea to spend less next year than this year.

3. Failure to reach an agreement isn’t the end of the world; we still get 1 trillion in cuts.

4. Republicans running around claiming they can’t cut the Pentagon’s budget are acting like Democrats.

5. With that said, defense spending IS called for in the constitution. Food stamps and section 8 are not.

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Posted in Economy, Government, Idiots on Parade, Politics: National, Republicans Can Be Leftists Too

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A Job Well Done

Posted on November 21, 2011 | 3 comments

Son:  Dad, wanna go outside and play some catch?

Me:  Sure, get your shoes on.

Son:  Dad, you can be thrower #7 –> The Viking’s new rookie QB Christian Ponder..

Me:  Thanks!  Who are you?

Son:  Me?  I’m Ahmad Rashad.

Me:  Wiping away a tear.

Son:  Daddy…?  What’s wrong?

Me:  Nothing son, nothing at all.

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Posted in Fun, Life, Raising Men

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Wealth And Distribution: II

Posted on November 21, 2011 | 7 comments

A week and a half ago I posted about the distribution of wealth in a controlled population of people that were EXACTLY like one another.  Exactly.  They contributed to 401ks the same, they saved for houses the same, they worked at the same wages and got raises the same.  The result, after just 15 years of life?

…the poorest third of people control less than 20% of the net wealth while the richest 14% control more than 20% of the net wealth.

6/15th’s of the poorest control less money than the top 2/15ths.

I have expanded my model to include home ownership.  Again, this is done with the assumption that ALL people do the EXACT same thing in the same way.  They buy a house at the same time, in the same housing market and the home they buy is worth the same.

Here’s what we get:

Again, the money shot:

Total
Worth
$20,150.00
$41,065.00
$62,768.00
$85,282.81
$108,633.07
$132,996.30
$155,049.73
$178,141.44
$202,303.53
$227,569.27
$253,973.07
$281,551.59
$310,340.71
$340,378.62
$371,702.83
$414,013.44
$455,546.94
$498,681.75
$543,467.99
$589,958.54
$638,156.14
$687,997.39
$739,532.90
$792,816.28
$847,903.24
$904,848.64
$963,712.56
$1,024,553.38
$1,087,433.82
$1,152,418.08

The control of wealth explodes after year 15.  That’s when my peeps buy a house.  What was a net worth growing by about 30k a year now grows much quicker; near 40 or 50k a year.  And this is just by buying a home.

So, after 30 years, where is the wealth?

The total wealth is $14,112,947 with a quintile at $2,822,589.

The lowest quintile.  That group of people that control the bottom 20% of the wealth in this equal society, defined equal society, compromises fully HALF the people in that society.  The bottom HALF of our population controls just 20% of the wealth.    The top 3/30, or 1/10th or 10% control 20% of the wealth as well.  In fact, the top 3% controls as much wealth as the bottom 33%.

And we’re just 30 years into the life of the exactly average 18 year old.  We’re just at 48 years of age.  We haven’t even begun to take into account poor choices or good choices.  This model is assuming that all kids make the exact same choices with their money, career and finances.

And we STILL have “wealth distribution” issues.

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Posted in Economics, GINI, Middle Class, Politics: National

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Of Having And Being: Dad

Posted on November 21, 2011 | 2 comments

I’m Dad to two young kids.  A boy and a girl, both younger than 10.  There are several things that I think I’d like to improve on, but then again, there are a number of things I excel at.

With that said, I wanna relate a story that came un-summened to my mind just now as I’m working at organizing mind bendingly boring numbers.

I grew up in Minnesota; land of 10,000 lakes.  Literally, there are more than 10,000 lakes in that place; it’s crazy.  Anyway, we often would visit these lakes in the summer, camp and stuff.  Our weekends were FILLED with camping and fishing and turtle catching and fires and …. and stuff.

I remember going to a lake that I hadn’t remembered being at before.  Of course, later it would come to be a favorite spot of ours.  But that day, THAT day, it was new.  Anyway, so, dad and my brother and I drove to this lake, what, 30 minutes from  home, and we just kinda looked around.  Great location, easy to get to, close to a store and fed by a creek.  A creek.

We walked down to that creek and walked over a bridge.  A small bridge to be sure, no more than 8 feet across and but a yard high.  A foot bridge only, nothing but people and bikes could cross.  And as we walked over that bridge we saw a creek that fed that lake FULL of fish.  And when I say full, I mean full.  Fish were fishing.  The amount of fish in that water was amazing.  And we didn’t have our poles.

I begged dad to drive all the way home, pick ’em up and drive back.  It would be SO awesome to fish that creek!

I could see it in his eyes.  He wanted too, I KNOW he did.  But he just couldn’t justify the 30 minute drive home followed by another 30 minute drive back just to fish.  Those fish lived for another day and I was left fishless.

We didn’t do anything that day.  e just drove home later and ….. and hung out.  Shit, we may have been LOOKING for stuff to do when we got back, I don’t know.  I think that whole day stuck with me.

I’ll go wildly out of my way just to let the kids “fish”.

It won’t make sense.  I’ve driven back home, 20 minutes each way, just so that my kid would have his “lovie” at day care.  I’ve made that same drive to bring in a valentine day card for a teacher.

That’s the thing about being a parent.  My folks did things and I turned out like I am.  I am happy with me.  Should I change what they did?  And if I do, do I risk raising my kids so they grow up to be not like me?

Huh.

 

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Posted in Life, Stuff

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Cost of Separation

Posted on November 19, 2011 | Leave a comment

Consider eating out.  Going to a restaurant and having dinner–lunch would work, breakfast too.  The way it works today is that a small short term “contract” is enacted.  You sit down and order, the joint brings you food and you have to pay for it.  This is understood to be a contract because if the place doesn’t bring you what they said they would, you have legal recourse.  Ina similar manner, should you choose not to pay, they have recourse as well; it’s illegal to d”dine -n dash”.

And this works well.  Based on this arrangement, I’m willing to try new places as often as I’m moved.  If something opens near me, I almost always try it.  Further, in a quest to find more and better restaurants in a specific genre of food, I’ll expand my radius and drive further to experiment.  However, what if it didn’t work this way.  What if the arrangement was different.

Suppose that if you wanted to try a new eatery you had to commit to eating there once a week for a year.  In short, by agreeing to eat there just once, you were legally bound to eat there 51 more times.

Do you think you would try more or fewer new restaurants?

It’s obvious.  We would all eat at fewer new restaurants.  Not only that, but we might find that as a result of such a restriction, fewer new restaurants would be opened in the first place.  In other words, the general overall “eating out” experience would be diminished.

The exact same is true of jobs.

As it becomes harder and harder for me separate from my labor, I’ll buy less and less of it.  It’s pure and simple.  It’s as true of labor as it is of restaurants as it is of cars.  And it’s being demonstrated around the world:

(Reuters) – Employers burned by the cost of laying off workers in the last crisis are uneasy about taking on permanent staff amid faltering economic growth putting pressure on the current workforce, a staffing industry executive said on Thursday.

Demand for temporary workers often acts as a leading indicator for overall economic growth, as firms hire flexible workers at the start of a recovery and cut staff ahead of a downturn.

Staffing firms Randstad, USG People and Manpower have warned of slowing jobs growth in Europe as the region’s debt crisis hammers consumer and business confidence.

“What has happened in this recession is that the psychology of hiring has completely changed,” said David Arkless, president of global corporate and government affairs at Manpower Group.

In the past firms hired temporary workers at the start of a recovery and gradually took on more permanent staff. But now, even in sectors and companies that are growing, employers are mindful of the huge costs of downsizing in the last recession and reluctant to take on permanent staff, he said.

“Employers are saying this could kill my company if I do the wrong kind of hiring now and it turns into a double dip recession,” said Arkless. “They are stretching the human element of their company to breaking point because they are so scared of hiring any more people right now.”

We all wanna make sure that our workers have it good.  However, when we mandate too much good, they get nothing.

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Posted in Economics, Economy, Politics: International

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California Facing Revenue Shortfall

Posted on November 19, 2011 | 3 comments

It’s an old adage but I think it’s important to point out how often people tend to overlook it:

If you tax it, you’ll get less of it.

Politicians forget this all the time.

A case can be made that raising income tax rates at the state level won’t force people, en mass, to move.  Or, that if you reduce state income tax rates, people will move in.  I agree with this; people fundamentally chase jobs, not tax rates.  This is for people however, not corporations.

When you tax corporations at a rate that is so high that businesses begin to move to avoid those taxes, people will move too.  Further, the higher the “income” chain you go, the more able that individual is free to move.

Own your own internet widget company and live in CA.  Pay too much in taxes?  Move to Nevada, or Texas.  Are ya a gazzilionaire and just live off dividends?  Pay too much taxes?  Move to Florida.

The point is, the higher the income stream, the greater the desire to tax it.  And the greater the ability to avoid it.  These people did not amass great wealth because they are careless or foolish.  And they certainly didn’t amass that wealth in order to have it stolen from them.

They’ll move.  And when they do, the revenue expected from them will be less:

LOS ANGELES — California’s budget problems show no signs of abating.

A report released by state budget analysts on Wednesday forecasts a sharp decline in revenue for this fiscal year, which could set off more than $2 billion in new cuts in state spending in January, including a seven-day reduction in the school year for public school students.

The report by the Legislative Analyst’s Office projected that the state would fall $3.7 billion short of the $88.5 billion in revenues and transfers that was anticipated in the 2011-12 state budget approved in June. Under the terms of that budget, automatic reductions — known as trigger cuts, and specified in some detail in the budget — go into effect if revenues fall $1 billion or more short of projections.

California is a state blessed by weather and geography.  And people are fleeing the place.

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Posted in Economics, Economy, Politics: National, States Behaving Badly

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An Old Football Coach With the Most Wins in History

Posted on November 16, 2011 | 1 comment

To say the least, there’s been a lot of attention on the Penn State football program.  Joe Pa, one of the greatest coaches in any sport, was forced out in disgrace as reports became public of wide spread child abuse in the program.

But I’m not here to talk about Joe today.  I wanna mention a guy with more wins and less attention.  His name is John Gagliardi.  And he coaches in Minnesota at St. John’s University located in Collegeville.  He’s a legend:

At the age of 22, with six years of high school coaching, Gagliardi was hired at Carroll College in Helena, Montana. In four seasons as head coach at Carroll, Gagliardi compiled a 24–6–1 record, winning three Montana Collegiate Conference championships. After the 1952 season, Gagliardi left Carroll for the Saint John’s University in Collegeville, Minnesota

Did’ja get that?  At the ripe old age of 22, John had 6 years of high school coaching under his belt.

John Gagliardi began coaching football in 1943 at the age of 16 when his high school coach was called into service during World War II. He was a player-coach his senior year of high school and continued to coach high school football while obtaining his college degree at Colorado College.

At 16 he is a player/coach in high school and continues to coach while attending college.  This guy is a stud.

He is currently the head football coach at Saint John’s University in Collegeville, Minnesota, a position he has held since 1953. From 1949 to 1952, he was the head football coach at Carroll College in Helena, Montana. With a career record of 483–133–11, Gagliardi has the most wins of any coach in college football history. His Saint John’s Johnnies teams have won four national titles: the NAIA National Football Championship in 1963 and 1965, and the NCAA Division III National Football Championship in 1976 and 2003. Gagliardi was inducted into the College Football Hall of Fame in 2006. With Chris Ault, he is one of two active coaches in the Hall of Fame.

John is the winningest coach in college history.  Joe Pa sits at 409; 74 behind John.  Seventy ‘effin four.

And he’s comin’ back for more:

St. John’s coach John Gagliardi — college football’s winningest coach — has decided to return for his 60th season directing the Johnnies. St. John’s finished 6-4 thanks to a season-ending four-game winning streak that helped convince Gagliardi to return.

“For awhile there, I thought maybe I had lost it,” Gagliardi told Frank Rajkowski of the St. Cloud Times. “But we came back and started playing good football. That helped a lot.”

John is 85 years old.  He’s been coaching football for damn near 70 years.  When asked what he’d do if he gave up the game?

“I don’t know anything else,” said Gagliardi, 85. “What else should I be doing? Am I going to take a trip to Italy or go climbing the Himalayas? I don’t want to do any of those things. There are days I don’t even like going into St. Cloud.”

Classic.

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Posted in Fun, Life, Raising Men

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Iran and Nukes

Posted on November 15, 2011 | 1 comment

There has been significant debate over the idea that Iran may get the technology to build a bomb and what we may or may not do to prevent that eventuality. There are some, many even, that feel such technology in the hands of Iran will result in the destruction of Israel. Others feel that at the very least it will disrupt the region in the middle east and risk increased hostilities. Even others feel that the mere possibility of the creation of such weapons will result in the Israelis attacking Iran.

I’m not in a position to really comment on statecraft. I happen to think that much of such diplomacy and communication is, by definition, based on illusion, deception and subtle impressions of intention. As such, we really have little idea as to the true intentions of people and states. However, I AM wiling to acknowledge that a weapon in the hands of Iran will be disruptive.

But should it? Do we, or any other nation, have the right to deny another nation the technology required to build these nightmares? And if weDO have that right, do THEY in turn have similar claims on our owning such technologies?

I think that any nation has the sovereign right to advance their knowledge in science. That if they desire to learn such technologies, they Ought to be able. Perhaps they desire clean energy? Maybe some other benign use. But to deny that nation access to a technology simply because we fear what they might use it for is not consistent with our concept of liberty.

Can we limit the use of that technology? Certainly. As a collection of nations we have entered into agreement on all kinds of things; prisoners, weapons, war techniques and targets. We have in place laws and rules of use that govern nuclear weapons. I think it foolish and dangerous to attempt to deny anyone the possession of those weapons via coercive force.

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Posted in Liberty, Politics: International, Technology

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