Monthly Archives: December 2009

Risk Gain

I’m not sure that Government understands risk:

State officials said they believe Dell also should give back about $6 million in tax breaks the company received between 2005 and 2007, but a Dell spokesman said the company is entitled to keep the money since it was operating at the time.

“Our belief and our understanding is that we met the performance thresholds required for those incentives during those years, and are not obliged to repay those,” spokesman Jess Blackburn said.

The state of North Carolina negotiated with Dell to open a plant here.  To incent the company to do so, we offered them tax breaks and grants, both locally and at the State level.  It was understood that if Dell left or closed, that money would have to be returned.

Well, Dell did leave, the plant did close and:

…the company agreed to repay more than $26 million in local grants and $1.5 million in state grants, acknowledging that it didn’t live up to its end of the deal by not keeping a specified number of jobs in Forsyth County.

So.  What is all the hullabaloo about?

Turns out that the State of North Carolina is in a bit of trouble financially.  And they could use any money they can wrangle out of the evil capitalists.  And why not, the Feds are doing the same thing with great success.  So our good Govna is going out, bad mouthing Dell and demanding that they pay money back:

“I will fight them if they want to fight about this,” Perdue said. “They made some agreements. We offered some incentives. The locals offered some incentives, and they need to live up to their side of the bargain. If that means going to court, I guess we will.”

Turns out, however, that the money she wants to get back is money that Dell “saved” while they were in business and operating.  This isn’t money that we paid to Dell, it was simply money that they didn’t pay to us while they employed our people.

House Minority Leader Paul Stam issued a statement Tuesday saying the dispute could have been resolved long ago. Lawmakers defeated an attempt to include language in the state incentives package that would have required Dell to forfeit all credits it received from the state if it didn’t have at least 1,200 employees at the computer plant within five years, said Stam, R-Wake.

So not only is Purdue going after money that Dell doesn’t really owe us, she is poisoning the well in doing so.   Who in the world is going to wanna open a business here when they get treated like this?

And I Will Name Him — Success

I can’t prove it, of course.  And, in fact, it may not even happen.  But I swear to you that I won’t be surprised if the recent reports of H1N1 vaccine being available is reported as reducing the number of cases of H1N1.

Back in late November, experts were calling the H1N1 peak:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The pandemic of swine flu may be hitting a peak in the Northern Hemisphere, global health officials said on Friday, but they cautioned it was far from over.

Not sure that a lot of people caught that.  And for those that did, they may have responded like I did:

Big “effin” deal.  My family already got it.

But, when you combine the news that the outbreak has peaked with this bit of good news:

Raleigh, N.C. — About 200 people showed up Tuesday morning at the Wake County Public Health Center in Raleigh to get the H1N1 flu vaccine.

Tuesday was the first day the county opened the vaccine up to anyone over 6 months old.

Traffic was slow and steady at the Sunnybrook Road location, as well as three other health department sites in Fuquay-Varina, Wake Forest and Zebulon.

Ray Martin, 71, said he was in and out of the Raleigh site in 15 minutes – a stark contrast to earlier this year, in which hundreds lined up and were turned away due to a limited supply of the vaccine.

Now look, I for one am very pleased to see that those folks who need a shot are getting one.  But really.  Providing a shot to people older than 6 months of age fully 2 weeks AFTER the peak is not really A-Okay in my book.  Especially considering that the vaccine takes nearly 2 weeks to fully “bake-in”.

Sadly, I am afraid that this is what we have to look forward to in the Government sponsored health care.  See, in the world of government, a vaccine is an expense that needs to be minimized.  In the private world, the vaccine is a product that needs to be available, marketed and sold.

‘Nuff said.

Could This Turn Out Any Other Way?

Look, there are over paid people in this world.  Athletes.  Movie stars.  Middle managers at large corporations.  Sure.  I get it.  And to a l ot of people, people who really work and work physically, the money that some of the people make is gross.  That being said, the market adjusts pretty well and compensates those people fairly well.

Is shoveling horse manure more physically demanding than running a large Fortune 50 account?  Yup.  Are more people suited to shoveling manure than managing said account?  Just as sure.  Hence, the value of the skill is different and the compensation changes.

Which just makes this news predictable:

Anastasia Kelly, general counsel of AIG , Rodney Martin, head of one of AIG’s international life insurance businesses; William Dooley, who runs the financial-services division including AIG Financial Products; Nicholas Walsh, vice chairman and head of the international property and casualty unit; and John Doyle, who runs the U.S. property and casualty division, said in written notices Dec. 1 that they’re willing to leave by the end of 2009…

In October, Feinberg cut 2009 compensation for AIG’s top 13 employees by 57%, including limiting most base salaries to no more than $500,000. Another 12 top employees had already left before the review began, according to the WSJ.

Now, you can argue that execs are overpaid.  And you might even be able to convince some people of that fact.  But what you CAN’T prove is that THESE execs are overpaid in relation to their peers.  These people, in theory, are among the best in the world at what they do.  There might be only a few hundred who have the ability to rise to the positions these people have.  And that is among billions of people.  They SHOULD be paid well.

Now they will, just not at AIG.

Where a Picture is Worth a Thousand Words

I like this picture:

National Job Approval" Barach Obama December 8, 2009

Partly because it’s showing the shine is wearing off and America is starting to understand what many of us saw at the outset.  But also because this is a “poll of polls”.  Go to the site and see for yourself.  Each dot in the graph shows the results of an independent poll.  USToday, CNN, Gallup and so on.  And, in short, the survey SAYS!

NoBama.

Poor Form

I get why people hate politics and politicians.  Heck, I hate politics and politicians.  We should be able to get to the point where we can disagree and yet still have the class to let someone go to the restroom:

After 75 minutes and 14 split votes Monday, Tony Gurley and the GOP regained the top spot on the Wake County Board of Commissioners – on a tie-breaker achieved only when member Betty Lou Ward took an unexcused bathroom break.

See, the Wake County Board is made up of 7 members.  Right now the Democrats have control of the Board 4-3.  One of the members, a Democrat suffered a stroke and has been unable to attend meetings; that makes it 3-3.  Last night the board was electing a new chairman and after 75 minutes and multiple votes, could get past the 3-3 tie.  That’s when Ms. Ward went to the bathroom.  Because she didn’t officially request an absence, the Board was within it’s right to vote without her, and they did.

Legal?  Yes.  Without class?  Absolutely.

The World Compared to the States

Ben Hoffman is having another monster conversation describing Common Right-Wing Lies.  Ben’s post begins by talking about what he considers lies:

  1. right-wingers claim Obama promised that unemployment would not go above 8 percent if the stimulus was passed. Eric Cantor claimed: “We were promised. The president said we would keep unemployment under 8.5 percent (if the stimulus passed).”
  2. Lie: Reagan’s tax cuts resulted in increased revenues.
  3. Lie: Obama’s spending has resulted in a huge budget deficit.

And then he refutes that by claiming the “Fact”:

  1. The Job Impact of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Plan report included a graph that projected unemployment rates without the stimulus would peak at 9% and with the stimulus at just under 8%. That is not a promise; it is a projection, an estimate, a prediction. Claiming it was a promise is crazy talk.
  2. Reagan’s tax cuts resulted in decreased revenues. His tax increases resulted in increased revenues.
  3. Obama is responsible for only a small sliver of the deficit.

Now, there is a whole board full of comments on the subject; stop over for the debate.

However, during that debate, we began to take on the role of Government and really what it means when the Government creates public programs; Libraries, Parks, Beaches, Zoos and Police/Fire Stations.  I contend that when the government uses public money to establish and run these organizations, it is the equivalent of robbing one neighbor at gun point only to take that money and give it to your other neighbor in the form of a library, museum or zoo.

Of course this is a Libertarian point of view.  And maybe taken to its extreme, is a bit untenable.  But I do maintain that if a government is going to set up public works programs, it should be as local to the people as possible.  There is very little argument that can be made that would support taking money from citizens in North Carolina to support a Federal program giving money to an Art District in California.

Anyway, during the debate, one of us, Arbourist, made a comment stating that Socialist States are alive and well in the world:

Of course not, libertarianism has not ever been implemented, nor will it ever be implemented. It is not a practical way to run a society, unlike socialism which has many practical applications, and is doing great in many locations:Cuba, Venezuela, Nigeria, Canada, Sweden, Norway, […].

This got me to thinking.  So, I went out and grabbed some data here and here.  Put it down and paper and came up with this:

GDP per Capita

This is a graph showing the GDP per Capita of the World’s richest 50-60-70 nations, some interesting nations not in that group and then the list of nations quoted by Arbourist.  Further, I have compared these nations to the States of the United States of America, just to see where they rank.

Check out some interesting notes:

  1. The top 4 nations all are financial destination countries.  Their rankings might be skewed as such.
  2. Of the nations mention by the Arbourist, only 1, Norway, ranks ahead of the United States.  The 5 remaining rank below the United States.
  3. Of the 5 that rank behind the USA, two rank ahead of the European Union.
  4. While Norway ranks ahead of the USA in total, if Norway became a State, it would only be the 5th richest in our Nation.
  5. If Canada and Sweden were to become States, they would be the 40th and 43rd richest States respectively.
  6. And finally, if Venezuela, Cuba and Nigeria were to become States, they would immediately be the poorest States in the Country; their combined GDP per Capita not even equaling that of Mississippi–currently the poorest State in the Nation.

No, the fact remains.  The United States of America is the single richest Nation ever in the history of the world.  And we are so rich because we try to maximize the free market and the flow of capital and the driving motivation of profits.  The freer the market, the better off her citizens.

Free Market Guy

So, word is that I trust the free market to a fault.  It might be hard to dispute that, but then again, my limited knowledge of economics as a science could argue in my favor that what I do or don’t know doesn’t mean squat.  Hell, for all I know, the only reason that I feel the way I do is that when I was a kid I mighta thought my dad was a Republican.  [he wasn’t, democrat blue through and through].  Anyway, so I started thinking.  They have books on sports.  Everything from who wins and loses, point spread, over under and even crazy things, like TDs in a game, fumbles in the first half or yards rushing per carry.  Crazy crazy stuff.  More crazy is how accurate it is.

See, it’s one thing to SAY that the Vikings are gonna beat Green Bay.  It’s another thing entirely to BET money that they will.  One is a hope.  The other is, or can be, an investment.

So I went out to see if there was a market for the stuff that I talk about here.  Turns out; there is:  Intrade

Intrade is a clearing house for all kinds of strange things.  You can bet on whoo will have control of the House of Representatives after 2010 election.  You can bet on Cap and Trade regulations, Gov Sanford staying in office and–well, Health Care plans.  Let’s check it out.

And as of right now, this board is tracking three “markets”

  1. A federal government-run health insurance plan to be approved before midnight ET 31 Dec 2009
  2. A federal government-run health insurance plan to be approved before midnight ET 31 March 2010
  3. A federal government-run health insurance plan to be approved before midnight ET 30 June 2010

Now, the way it works is that the “Closing Price” is what the “market” feels is the % chance that a “thing” will occur.  So, if the closing price for the “Vikings winning the NFC Norris” is at 83.5, then that is saying the market feels there is an 83.5% chance of the Vikings winning the Division.

Check out the graphs for each of our Health Care scenarios:


Price for Will a federal government run health insurance plan (a public option) be approved in the US? at intrade.com

This one looks very promising.  With a closing price of 2.7, the market is saying that there is only a 2.7% chance that we’ll see a “Public Option” by December 31, 2009.  How about March 31, 2010?

Note:  These graphs are show with their real time rates.  At the time of prining the first was at 2.7 and the bottom two at 12.0.


Price for Will a federal government run health insurance plan (a public option) be approved in the US? at intrade.com

Ouch, that one doesn’t look so good.  Fully 400% increase to 12% that we’ll see the public option by March 31, 2010.  For our last time frame; June 30, 2010?


Price for Will a federal government run health insurance plan (a public option) be approved in the US? at intrade.com

Fascinating.  The exact same closing price; 12.  The market feels that there is a 12% chance that we’ll have a “Public Option” passed by June 30th, 2010.

Very interesting stuff.  One note, this data is saying that if we don’t pass this by April 1, there is a zero percent chance that we’ll pass it by July 1.  If the market felt that there was a chance of passing after March 31, the close would reflect a number HIGHER than the March 31 closing.

The Fruits of Our Labor

Quick.  Below, which company would you want to own?

52 Week View Range: $0.06 - $5.10

This is one Company.  See the second one below.

52 Week View Range: $1.50 - $9.14

Is it even close?  One company is taking off.  Not hard to do, the market has come back by some 60%.  However the other company, even in one of the best markets we have seen in years, is tanking.

The first company is Government Motors.

The second one is Ford.

Go Obama!

Danger Ahead

A couple of days ago I gave my explanation of why California doesn’t have any water left.  The basic idea is that when the price of a thing is reduced and limited below what the market would otherwise bare, you will experience a shortage of that thing.

This is true of water in California
This is true of housing in New York during rent control.
This is true of housing in San Francisco during rent control.
This is true of gasoline during times of rising prices.

So why is it that very smart people don’t take these lessons to heed?

Dorgan’s drug re-importation amendment is another significant hurdle. Allowing for the importation of cheaper drugs from Canada and European countries is popular among many Democrats and Republicans, giving Dorgan’s proposal a strong chance of passage.

Unbelievable.  Drug companies make drugs to sell, at a profit.  The market in the US is SO massive that they can sustain gross economic policies in other countries that force these companies to sell thier drugs for less than cost.  Now, the US wants to take those drugs from those countries and re-import them here.  For a price less than the market can bare.
Guess whats gonna happen?

Hat Tip: Say Anything

Seriously Confused

This time, it’s me I am accusing.  Not Obama.

I have been reading the reports of the unemployment situation today and two things have stood out. The first, from the BLS:

The unemployment rate edged down to 10.0 percent in November, and nonfarm payroll employment was essentially unchanged (-11,000)

And the second from MarketWatch:

The report was much better than expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch, who were looking for 100,000 fewer jobs…

Okay, let’s start with #2 first.  I have seen several reports that show November was expected to lose 100,000 to 130,000 jobs.  And we came in losing only 11,000.  No one, not ONE single person O have seen has stopped and said, “Huh”?  This is off by just a little bit folks.  These guys were off by a FACTOR OF TEN!  No one is THAT wrong and gets away with it.  Unless of course, you are Al Gore.

So, okay, experts were wrong.  And by a lot.  But that gets us to point #1.  We still lost jobs.

In October, unemployment stood at 10.2%.  We lost jobs.  Even if it was only 1, we lost net jobs.  The rate HAS to stay the same or get worse.  Right?  Wrong.  We lost job AND the unemployment rate got better.

Weird.

Unrelated news.  Houston is expecting 2 inches of snow.  Silly polar bears need migrate!