Scott Walker: Wisconsin Recall

On almost double the volume today Intrade has Walker at 93% and going away …

Maybe the good people of Wisconsin really do understand that what he did has helped the state save money and save jobs.  Let’s hope so.

Poverty And Class In America

There’s been a lot of discussion surrounding the mobility between classes here in America.  At the same time, there’s been a lot of discussion surrounding the importance of education.  Not only getting a high school diploma but on getting a college one as well.  In fact, it’s gone so far as to have people calling for free college education for all Americans.  The argument is that the rich get richer while the poor get poorer.  That income mobility in America is restricted.  That attaining wealth is more and more becoming reserved for the pre-existing well to do’s.

For a long time I’ve fought this belief.  I’ve fought the idea that America is not the land of opportunity.  That we’ve somehow lost the idea that if you work hard enough you can do anything.

I’ve fought it.

And now I’m reading a book, The Bell Curve, and I’ve seen some interesting data.  For example, it seems to be important where you come from if you wanna avoid poverty:

If you’re born to a family with very low socioeconomic class, you have an 8 times better chance to find yourself in poverty than if you were born to a family with a very high socioeconomic status.

It would seem that class matters.

Further, when it comes to wages, the data suggests that there is an education gap that would strengthen the argument that we need to increase college degrees to our kids:

It’s hard to argue the numbers.  High school droop-outs are seeing their wages drop by double digits while college graduates are seeing double digit increases.

Interesting data to be sure.

 

 

Scott Walker: Wisconsin Recall

Tonight is Wisconsin Eve.  The whole nation is watching the freakin’ Cheese Heads to see which way they’ll go.  Tomorrow is the recall election of Governor Scott Walker.

We all know the issues, we’ve all listened to the talking heads from both sides and most likely, we’ve all made up our minds.  I know I have; it was over before it started.  But what interests me is not only who SHOULD win, but who WILL win.

And I think I gotta give the edge to the Democrats.

The unions are going to be out in full force.  They’re gonna have every member from Green to Bay out shaking voters from anywhere they can find ’em.  Walker’s going away in the polls, but Barrett has the built in “feet on the street.”

I give it to the Unions by 3 points.

Sigh.

 

 

 

California Budget Cuts: Inevitable

California Is Broke

It’s not even really a question at this point anymore.  California doesn’t have any money and is losing more every year.  In fact, the situation is getting worse and not getting any better, it’s not even slowing down:

California’s budget deficit will swell to nearly $7 billion greater than expected due to weak tax revenues and slow progress in cutting spending, Governor Jerry Brown said on Saturday.

Brown said the shortfall for the state’s 2012-2013 fiscal year now stands at $16 billion, up from a previous estimate of $9.2 billion made in January.

“We are now facing a $16 billion shortfall, not the $9 billion we thought in January,” Brown announced in a video posted on YouTube. “This means we will have to go much further and make cuts far greater than I asked for at the beginning of the year.”

There’s little reason to believe that this trend isn’t going to continue.  Individuals from California earning incomes in the top 1% are delivering less and less tax revenue:

In 2007, the top 1% of California earners paid about half of the state’s income taxes. Now it’s around 37%

Is this because salaries are dropping for the very rich or is it because they are leaving the state?  It’s hard to say.

Revenue Or Spending

Whatever the reason, the top 1% are no longer the cash cow they used to be.  Going from 50% to only 37% is going to massively impact balance sheet.  But is that the only cause for California’s current condition?  Not at all.  Committed spending on public pensions is also to blame:

(Reuters) – A radical plan to slash public employee pension benefits gets voted on by the residents of Silicon Valley’s San Jose on Tuesday – a decision that could set an important precedent for many other cities, not only in California but across the nation.

The nation’s 10th-largest city is also one of the wealthiest, but over the past several years it has cut its municipal workforce by a quarter, laying off cops and firefighters, shuttering libraries and letting street repairs fall by the wayside.

The problem? Mayor Chuck Reed says it’s simple: Retiree benefit costs eat up more than a quarter of the city budget – and are growing at a double-digit rate.

So, the mayor has identified a problem specific to San Jose.  Is this systemic across California?

Public finance woes are nothing new in California. The state budget deficit stands at an estimated $15.7 billion for next year, requiring further cuts in state services and, if Governor Jerry Brown has his way, higher income and sales taxes. Local governments and school districts have struggled for years to make ends meet.

The pension problem, though, may be the mother of all budget issues – for California, for its cities and counties, and for other states and municipalities across the nation. The main California state retirement systems have a total shortfall in pension-plan funding of close to half a trillion dollars, a Stanford University study estimated. The bill is not due at once, but payments on it grow steadily and can eventually squeeze out even basic services. Public officials like Reed, and academics who have studied the issue, say the day of reckoning is nigh.

Yes.  California has created a condition that is set to consume public budgets very soon.  In efforts to pander to the unions and the public employees, the state and her cities have engaged in reckless commitments that is has no hope of meeting.  There is only one solution in sight:

The solution he is pushing at the ballot box, after city council approval, would slash benefits for workers, increase employee contributions – and almost certainly prompt a precedent-setting legal challenge from the public employee unions.

“The best metaphor is cancer,” said Reed, a Democrat known as more of a technocrat than a firebrand, who is now cast as public enemy No. 1 by public employee unions. “It started a long time ago, it goes for a long time, and then it becomes life-threatening.”

Of course that’s the solution.  California is already taxing her people so much that the freakin’ Buffalo is puking*  I don’t know how much of a leftist/statist individual Governor Brown is out there in California, but if he’s at ALL interested in fixing his state he should gaze east and look and see what a government can do as exemplified in Wisconsin.

 

* This is an old reference to someone who is so cheap in the days when the buffalo adorned the nickel.

Johan Santana: Of Course He Would Pitch a No-No

For 8 glorious years he was all ours.  Then it was gone and the wind blows cold in Minnesota.

Johan Santana Pitched a No-No for the New York Mets:

What stood between the Mets and their first no-hitter in their 50-year history was a matter of inches, Carlos Beltran and one deceiving baseball. Johan Santana was supposed to have a pitch count, but his left shoulder was not supposed to be this healthy, and for how well he danced with fate all night, it would not have mattered how many pitches he threw.

But in the sixth inning, on his way to no-hitting the St. Louis Cardinals, Santana left a pitch where Beltran could pull it down the left-field line. It appeared to be a fair ball, what would have been a double, what would have ended the no-hitter. The third-base umpire, Adrian Johnson, called it foul, and Beltran then grounded out.

Santana ran the count full against the next hitter, Matt Holliday, only to dip out of danger again by striking out Holliday on a chest-high changeup. All night it went like this, until Santana had completed his no-hitter, throwing 134 pitches even though Manager Terry Collins had said his limit was 115, and walking five batters. The Mets won, 8-0.

Santana was amazing to watch.  It appears that still is the case.

Roll on Johan, roll on!

Minimum Wage And Rent

The image above is making its way around the internet and for me, Facebook.  The idea, of course is to make the point that someone making minimum wage isn’t able to afford even rent, much less eat.  However, the chart fails to examine some deeper truths about minimum wage:

  1. Very few Americans work at minimum wage.  And the vast majority of them that do live in homes with other wage earners making significantly more.  Examples include teenagers and spouses of primary bread winners.
  2. Minimum wage earners should not be in the market for 2 bedroom units without a roommate.  For many years I bunked up with a friend.  At times even two.  In fact, there were times I slept on the couch or floor of a buddy until I could make ends meet.
  3. Minimum wage earners almost always make more than the minimum wage very quickly.
  4. By raising the minimum wage, the marginal employee will make the REAL minimum wage – $0.00

To be sure, we all want an environment where anyone who wants work can find work.  But we have to agree that we live in a world where people bring different levels of value to the table.  Further, that these people travel a graduation of value.  We start out with no work experience and are compensated poorly.  As we grow in experience and knowledge, our productivity rises and our compensation likewise increases.  By changing this, the only thing that will occur is less employment.

Government Regluations: New York Soda

By now we’ve all heard about Mayor Bloomberg’s plan to ban large sizes of drinks that are high in sugar or calories.  This would include soda, energy drinks and sweetened teas.

New York City plans to enact a far-reaching ban on the sale of large sodas and other sugary drinks at restaurants, movie theaters and street carts, in the most ambitious effort yet by the Bloomberg administration to combat rising obesity.

The proposed ban would affect virtually the entire menu of popular sugary drinks found in delis, fast-food franchises and even sports arenas, from energy drinks to pre-sweetened iced teas. The sale of any cup or bottle of sweetened drink larger than 16 fluid ounces — about the size of a medium coffee, and smaller than a common soda bottle — would be prohibited under the first-in-the-nation plan, which could take effect as soon as next March.

This has to be a clear cut example of what the government CAN do, but what it SHOULDN’T do.  There’s no question that American are getting bigger and becoming obese at alarming rates.  There is no question that eating/drinking less garbage and working out more often would greatly contribute to reducing this problem.

However, at some point, there has to come a time when the government oversteps its bounds.  Are we really ready to accept living in a state where the state can dictate such personal freedoms?  Perhaps we are.  We already accept the fact that we can’t smoke in certain places.  We acknowledge and accept that the government can dictate seat belts and motorcycle helmets.

As much as I’m appalled at the regulation of soda-pop, I am equally sure that most of our citizens will accept it and we can just chalk it up to another example of people eschewing personal liberty in the name of removing any semblance of personal responsibility.

Snips And Snails And Puppy Dog Tails

The word out of Texas is that we have a Planned Parenthood employee assisting a mother in mapping out a plan on what she should do if her child is a girl instead of a boy.

Now, to be clear, I don’t care if the employee knew or didn’t know she was being filmed or set up.  The reaction is what I’m interested in.

If you support abortion, that is the ability of a mother to choose to have or not have the “thing” that grows in her, can you reasonably support a law that bans that mother’s choice based on the future sex of that “thing?”

I don’t think you can.

An that begs the question.

Government Spending: Obama And The Rest

We’ve all seen or heard about the Market Watch piece by Rex Nutting:

Almost everyone believes that Obama has presided over a massive increase in federal spending, an “inferno” of spending that threatens our jobs, our businesses and our children’s future. Even Democrats seem to think it’s true.

But it didn’t happen. Although there was a big stimulus bill under Obama, federal spending is rising at the slowest pace since Dwight Eisenhower brought the Korean War to an end in the 1950s.

And the graphs that follow made it through Facebook like a wildfire:

Pretty startling.  If true, and Politifact says it mostly is, it paints a significantly different picture than most people have come to accept.  And to be sure, there have been some herculean efforts to point out that Nutting, Obama and Politifact may not be explaining the whole reality.  For example, the stimulus is charged to Bush but the repayment of that stimulus is credited to Obama.  At the very least, the two actions should be charged to the same guy, either one seems fair.  Then there’s the fiscal activities that took place during Bush’s fiscal year but that Obama passed.  Those should not be given to Bush but rather to Obama.

However, there’s been something gnawing at me during this whole debate and until I read a piece this morning by Dan Mitchell.

He makes a great case that while Obama IS a big government big spender, it’s not as if the Republicans are innocent.

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Wisconsin: Recalling Governor Walker

We all know the story. The elections of 2008 led to the elections of 2010.  And the 2010 elections were of epic proportions.  Republicans on the federal and state levels dominated and it ushered a new world order in many governing bodies.  Here in North Carolina we see the first republican controlled senate and house for the first time in  more that 100 years.  And in Wisconsin, we see a republican governor, a republican senate and a republican house.

Some excellent things were about to happen.

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