Category Archives: Politics: National

Romney Was Right And Obama Has Been Covering Up Benghazi

For a long time now I’ve been advocating the position that Benghazi has been a big deal.  I thought that Obama mismanaged the event in real time, the next morning I felt he was off.  Further, in the weeks that followed the man-made disaster, I felt that Obama was feeding us information that didn’t ring true.

And all the while there wasn’t mention of it at in the media; Fox was the only organization that was prosecuting Obama on this issue.  And guess what?  It was Fox that was being accused of “foul play.”  As if the media doesn’t have a job to ferret out administrations and get the real truth.

Well, in recent days I’ve seen CBS doing some good work.  I didn’t finish the post I started by there was an article this past week where CBS reported on e-mails they obtained.  Good stuff.

And now we learn that CBS interviewed Obama on 60 Minutes but didn’t include the whole interview.  Fine, we all know that not every single bit of film makes the cut.  However, CBS DID release the full interview later and this is part of what was left on the floor:

“Mr. President, this morning you went out of your way to avoid the use of the word terrorism in connection with the Libya attack,” correspondent Steve Kroft asks the president. “Do you believe that this was a terrorism attack?”

“Well, it’s too early to tell exactly how this came about, what group was involved, but obviously it was an attack on Americans,” Obama answered. “And we are going to be working with the Libyan government to make sure that we bring these folks to justice, one way or the other.”

Obama would. not. answer. the. question.

Mr. Kroft straight up asked the man a yes or no question, “Do you believe that this wasn’t a terrorist attack?”

And the President would say it was.

This should have come out the minute the interview was over.  This shouldn’t have been cut.  This was the EXACT point Romney made during that second debate when he was pounding the Barckness Monster over his handling of the attacks.

Obama and his team were clearly out of their element.

At least now we know.

The Power Of A Word

From The Economist - True Progressivism

I was going through my edition of The Economist the other day.  It was a treat really, in the “old days” I used have lunch across from the Barnes and Noble, buy the print edition and read it over Thai food.  I’ve long given that ritual up in favor of a subscription and electronic reading but hey….

So, anyway, there I was with my Phad Thai and the print version of the Economist.  I flipped to the “Leaders” section and just shook my head when I say this title:

True Progressivism

I’ve come to see The Economist as a more moderate magazine than I used to, but every now and then I hit an article that makes me wonder.  I nearly just turned the page and walked away.

But I read on.  And boy am I glad that I did!

To be sure they came out of the gate pretty slowly:

BY THE end of the 19th century, the first age of globalisation and a spate of new inventions had transformed the world economy. But the “Gilded Age” was also a famously unequal one, with America’s robber barons and Europe’s “Downton Abbey” classes amassing huge wealth: the concept of “conspicuous consumption” dates back to 1899. The rising gap between rich and poor (and the fear of socialist revolution) spawned a wave of reforms, from Theodore Roosevelt’s trust-busting to Lloyd George’s People’s Budget. Governments promoted competition, introduced progressive taxation and wove the first threads of a social safety net. The aim of this new “Progressive era”, as it was known in America, was to make society fairer without reducing its entrepreneurial vim.

Ugh.

But the plot improves quickly:

Thus, on America’s campaign trail, the left attacks Mitt Romney as a robber baron and the right derides Barack Obama as a class warrior. In some European countries politicians have simply given in to the mob: witness François Hollande’s proposed 75% income-tax rate.

I’m willing to trade a whole bunch of ideology to someone who’s willing to admit that the left is nothing more than class warriors.  So anyway, the article moves along and then comes some true gems:

In the rich world the cronyism is better-hidden. One reason why Wall Street accounts for a disproportionate share of the wealthy is the implicit subsidy given to too-big-to-fail banks. From doctors to lawyers, many high-paying professions are full of unnecessary restrictive practices. And then there is the most unfair transfer of all—misdirected welfare spending. Social spending is often less about helping the poor than giving goodies to the relatively wealthy. In America the housing subsidy to the richest fifth (through mortgage-interest relief) is four times the amount spent on public housing for the poorest fifth.

WOW!

The Economist is calling out the label, “Too Big To Fail.”  And then the truly Libertarian line of logic that begins to pin back the lawyers and the docs.  Who WOULDN’T love the racket that allows barristers and snake oil salesmen to restrict competition?  And how about that fact regarding the mortgage-interest?

So, ideas?

Compete, target and reform

The priority should be a Rooseveltian attack on monopolies and vested interests, be they state-owned enterprises in China or big banks on Wall Street. The emerging world, in particular, needs to introduce greater transparency in government contracts and effective anti-trust law. It is no coincidence that the world’s richest man, Carlos Slim, made his money in Mexican telecoms, an industry where competitive pressures were low and prices were sky-high. In the rich world there is also plenty of opening up to do. Only a fraction of the European Union’s economy is a genuine single market. School reform and introducing choice is crucial: no Wall Street financier has done as much damage to American social mobility as the teachers’ unions have. Getting rid of distortions, such as labour laws in Europe or the remnants of China’s hukou system of household registration, would also make a huge difference.

Next, target government spending on the poor and the young. In the emerging world too much cash goes to universal fuel subsidies that disproportionately favour the wealthy (in Asia) and unaffordable pensions that favour the relatively affluent (in Latin America). But the biggest target for reform is the welfare states of the rich world. Given their ageing societies, governments cannot hope to spend less on the elderly, but they can reduce the pace of increase—for instance, by raising retirement ages more dramatically and means-testing the goodies on offer. Some of the cash could go into education. The first Progressive era led to the introduction of publicly financed secondary schools; this time round the target should be pre-school education, as well as more retraining for the jobless.

Last, reform taxes: not to punish the rich but to raise money more efficiently and progressively. In poorer economies, where tax avoidance is rife, the focus should be on lower rates and better enforcement. In rich ones the main gains should come from eliminating deductions that particularly benefit the wealthy (such as America’s mortgage-interest deduction); narrowing the gap between tax rates on wages and capital income; and relying more on efficient taxes that are paid disproportionately by the rich, such as some property taxes.

Thoughts on paragraphs 1, 2 and 3:

1- A gigantic FU to the teacher’s unions and labor laws!  What I wouldn’t do to compromise if the deal included teacher’s union destruction and the loosening of labor laws.  I mean, holy shit – “No Wall Street financier has done as much damage to American social mobility as the teacher’s unions!”

2- Welfare reform.  We can only hope to slow the increase, but we should!   Though they do slip on early education; there isn’t any data that suggests the gains last beyond 3rd grade.

3-  This sounds exactly like Romney’s tax plan.

And to think, I almost passed this by because of the word Progressivism.

Romney’s Tax Plan

It seems that the whole campaign season has been about Romney’s tax plan.  Namely that it’s nothing more than a giant gimme to the rich at the expense of the middle class.  The argument goes along the lines of this:

You cannot reduce the marginal rate by 5 points across the board and eliminate enough deductions from the wealthy to make the plan both revenue neutral.  Therefore the plan MUST raise rates on those of us not in the upper 5 to 1 percent in income.

First this: I am a firm believer in the Laffer curve, a concept that describes what people do with their money to expose it to a tax burden.  The idea is that a tax rate of 0% will bring in the same amount of income as a tax rate of 100%.  Revenue increases at the beginning of each end until it reaches some theoretical maximum along the way.  Conservatives like to use the Laffer Curve as an argument against HIGHER taxes.  In this I am using it as an argument against LOWER taxes.  While I disagree with liberals that we need to raise taxes, I think that inserting a level of confidence that we are simply going to keep tax rates consistent is enough to grow the economy.

Second this: Romney’s plan has three planks –

  1. 5 point reduction across the board
  2. Deficit neutral
  3. Revenue neutral

Admittedly I get frustrated by the confusion created when “deficit” and “revenue” are used interchangeably, but it is what it is.

With all of that said, if Romney’s plan IS impossible, all it means is that what he is describing cannot be done.  It does NOT mean that there MUST be a tax hike on the middle class.  Of that he’ll blow a hole in the deficit.

For example, it could mean that he can’t move the rate by 5 points for the wealthy.

Okay, so my two issues aside; is the Romney tax plan impossible as the Obama campaign posits?

Rumor has it at “Yes.”

Princeton professor Harvey Rosen tells THE WEEKLY STANDARD in an email that the Obama campaign is misrepresenting his paper on Romney’s tax plan:

I can’t tell exactly how the Obama campaign reached that characterization of my work.  It might be that they assume that Governor Romney wants to keep the taxes from the Affordable Care Act in place, despite the fact that the Governor has called for its complete repeal.  The main conclusion of my study is that  under plausible assumptions, a proposal along the lines suggested by Governor Romney can both be revenue neutral and keep the net tax burden on taxpayers with incomes above $200,000 about the same.  That is, an increase in the tax burden on lower and middle income individuals is not required in order to make the overall plan revenue neutral.

I’ve always thought that Romney’s plan counted on growth.  Growth of existing salaries and then growth of the transition from unemployed to employed.

Now, do I think that’s the path we need to take?  Not necessarily.  But do I trust Romney more than Obama on anything, and I mean ANYTHING financial?  Most assuredly.

Obama Bounce Was Just That – A Bounce Up And A Fall Down

Romney was losing badly before the first debate.  Largely due to the fact that America hadn’t seen him and was relying on the negative attack ads delivered by the Obama campaign they viewed him as a monster.

Then came Colorado.

And Romney showed himself as a compassionate capable leader who would deliver America to a path far more favorable than Obama.

And he sky rocketed.

Obama won the second debate in a narrow decision, it did very little to slow the momentum.

The third debate was more of a decisive victory for the President and he enjoyed a resurgence; Gallup, a favorite of the left, saw Romney’s lead go from +7 to +3 in days.  However, today Romney is back to +5 thanks in part to rising Romney and falling Obama.

Further hurting Obama is the on going drama that is Benghazi.  It’s clear now that the Obama administration handled this badly.  They had direct knowledge within hours, failed to act appropriately and then lied to the American people starting in the Rose Garden, in spite of Candy Crowley’s defense.

 

Romney gains as Obama loses in Likely voters while Obama suffers a 6 point turn around in Approval.

Oh Minnesota How I must Weep

So I was researching some stuff for my post on the USS Minnesota when I came across this trivia:

Minnesota has the longest streak of voting for Democratic presidential candidates than any other state in the nation.

And this is during a discussion of who Romney should choose for a running mate.

Minnesota giveth and Minnesota taketh away!

The Family: Socioeconomics vs IQ – The Bell Curve

The election, work and a jammed family schedule have impacted not only the amount of recent blogging but the subject matter as well.  It’s been over a month since my last installment of the impact of IQ on the conditions of all of us.

The Impact of IQ on Family Matters

I’ve gone over subjects such as poverty, education and employment.  I’ve taken an approach that first shows the impact of the socioeconomic status of the folks involved; sometimes the parents or family and sometimes the individual himself.  Then I’ve come back to show what the circumstances look like when the population has been described in terms of IQ.  So far, to me, the differences are stunning.

Today I look to continue this by checking out the family.

Marriage

Because of the massive positive impact that being married has on society, it’s important to track who is getting married, when and why.  Earlier I showed a chart that described the state of folks at 30.  And because of the natural tendency of education to suppress marriage, both high school only and college graduates were displayed.  The chart below now includes taking IQ into account:

Most likely due to the fact that college is highly tracked to IQ, the differences don’t really matter.  But looking at the IQ of individuals without college education the impact i s large.  Of those with average IQs, 80% are married by 30.  Compare this with those of very low cognitive ability and their rate of 60%.

As I mentioned before, if marriage is important, then so is divorce.  And what does the comparison show?  Look:

The trends are interesting.  As individuals become wealthier, they are more likely to end their marriages in divorce.  But in a completely opposite way and manner, as the IQ of the folks increases, their likelihood of divorce decreases.

The subject of marriage is important because of the impact to the lives of the children of those families.  Because of this importance, it is required to look at the circumstances of birth.  Specifically illegitimate births.

The data are clear.  While the impact of the SES status is important, the top to bottom difference is 10 points, the impact of the IQ is even higher.  Where SES can show a 2 to 1 ratio, IQ shows a 7 to 1 ratio.

The last comparison is that of illegitimate births to white women already below the poverty line.  The data shows that as SES status increases so does the probability that a child is born out of wedlock.  If we include IQ?

Massive.

In perhaps the most glaring demonstration of the impact of IQ, this metric shows that women with higher cognitive ability avoid births out of wedlock at remarkable levels while women with lower cognitive ability are much less likely to avoid this condition.

In each of the 4 comparisons, IQ is shown to have a positive impact on the favorable conditions expected.  In some cases moderate, in others dramatic.

Next up – we look at the impact of IQ compared to SES and welfare.

An Extension Of And Then a Grabbing Of

That darn Mormon continues to pull ahead:

It would appear that the undecideds are deciding.  That, or the republicans that have been on the fence are gaining confidence and moving themselves from “Registered Voter” to “Likely Voter.”

And then the big news:

For the first time, Romney is now ahead in the Electoral Map.

To be sure, we have 20 odd days to go, a debate to digest and another yet to take place.  Much can, and will, happen between now and election day.

But momentum feels good right now.

The Candy Crawley Bias

Last night was the second of the three Presidential debates.  As I mentioned in last night’s post, Obama won, but only but a little.  And even that win will not likely change many minds.  Much work has yet to be done.

However, during the debate last night, I was struck by an intervention from the debate moderator; Candy Crowley.  More on that in a second.

I think we’d ALL love to see a debate where the candidates were in a place where they spoke through a microphone.  And that mic would go mute the second their time was up.  AND we’d like to see that debate take place where independent fact checkers could be identifying lies and false statements.

It would be grand.

But that debate didn’t take place last night.  It was more traditional, both in terms of live mics and in terms of truth stretching.  And while the moderator has a role in the former, she has NO role in the latter.  It is NOT the job of a moderator to fact check candidates.

Especially when the tide of the debate is at such a point as to determine a winner and a loser.

But that is exactly what Candy Crowley did last night.  She interrupted Romney when he had Obama so far in the ropes that the only thing the President could do was hold up his gloves and offer, “Continue…”

Why Crowley would perform in this manner is unbelievable.  And why she would do it during a time when the President was clearly being dominated is equally unbelievable.  And then, as if the critique of her couldn’t get worse – it does.

She was wrong, Romney was right.  And she admits it after the debate:

The President absolutely did NOT refer to Libya as terrorist attacks.  Not that day, not that night and certainly not for the next two weeks.  THAT is the whole point.  That is the issue at hand.

And Crowley rung the bell early and let the reigning champ get up and pushed the challenger back to his corner.

Obama won the debate to be sure, but Crowley lost it big time.

Who Won

I can’t know.

No one doubts that Obama had his ass handed to him in the first debate.  And I think that has been clouding everyone’s expectations for this one.

If Obama is anything at all Presidential he’ll do better than he did last time; which is “a win.”  However, winning means swaying voters.

Obama was much stronger than he was last time.  And Romney was much more, ahh, less CEO’ish than last time.  I think that adds up to an Obama win.  I think Obama gets it in a nod; 3-4 points.  But I said that about Biden too.

The real question – Did either win votes?

No.

Neither did well enough to sway independents.

 

UPDATE:

Both CNN and CBS have Obama by 7 points.  They are both calling it an “edge.”

I agree.  Obama did better largely on the fact that he didn’t suck as much as he did last time.  Neither sealed the deal.

Romney And Obama – Second Presidential Debate

Okay, kids are in bed and I’m in front of my TV getting ready to watch the debate.

There is no way, none, that Obama can do worse than he did in the first debate.  He’s simply too competitive and too skilled to allow that to happen again.  I’m not sure what happened that first time; I suspect that the theory that speaks to his never having been challenged to be the closest to accurate.  That failure will be addressed this time around.

The key for Romney:

Continue to demonstrate that he has better plans and that those plans will directly help the average American.

The key for Obama:

Take responsibility and appear Presidential.  This includes not passing blame AND presenting a plan.

We’ll see.

UPDATE #1

Right.  Obama is not voting “present” tonight.  He’s much stronger and is going toe to toe with the Governor.

Romney – First and Last, he didn’t answer the question as to how he’s going to get Jeremy a job.

Obama – Left himself open on two points: GM Bankruptcy and Green Energy job.  Romney tagged him on one and missed on the second.

UPDATE #2

Obama’s answers on energy are the same as the answers when he ran the first time 4 years ago.  And his insistence that he’s for fossil fuel energy just isn’t believable.

Romney delivered a body blow in his answer; permits are down and production is down; though he did mix his % between the two.

WOW!  I love the direct back and forth.  I didn’t see that coming.

Hmmm……Crowley gives Obama a third whack at the question and is talking down Romney.  Out of bounds but good on Romney to muscle ahead.  Obama doesn’t help his cause with comments from the sidelines.

UPDATE #3

GREAT question on asking Romney to speak to the deduction he might consider eliminating.

And Romney addressed the main point with his first statement, “I want lower taxes for the middle class.”  His second point is also a strong one.  He clarifies his position that the wealthiest Americans will continue to pay the same proportion of taxes that they’ve been paying in the past.

In his response, Obama draws on Romney’s “60 Minutes” interview and delivers a strong blow to Romney.   It’s hard to defend the claim that “it’s fair” for Romney to pay a lower rate than a bus driver.  [Though to be fair, the pay the same rates].

Obama goes off the rails on his follow up response.  No one thinks that Romney is going to reduce tax revenue by $5 trillion.  The defense spending might score a point, but then Obama comes back with the continuation of the Bush tax  cuts for the wealthy.  He’s double counting that.

But Obama does score big when he challenges Romney on the specifics.

Let’s how Romney plays Obama’s tactic of rolling out the critiques in the last follow up.

Good on Crowley; she gives Romney an extra go at it.  But then he makes a mistake; he mixes up deficits and debt.  Obama DID promise to cut the deficit in half when he took office.  But Romney then mentions the debt has doubled.

UPDATE #4

Oh you poor little misguided woman.  I’m going to skip the update on this one because women do NOT earn 72% of the wages their male peers make.

UPDATE #5

Romney, dude, this is right to you – “Shut the hell up about equal time.  You look petty and dumb.”

So, how is Romney different than Dubya?  Sigh.  Serious?

He answered the question well enough but what people wanna hear, the money shot, is that he won’t get us into two foreign wars.  Romney didn’t touch on that and the moment is lost.

UPDATE #6

The man asked a question about how Obama would help his situation.  Obama talked and then Romney talked.  Neither one answered the man; all they did was repeat talking points.

Blah.

This is the late rounds of a heavy weight bout.  No knock downs and the fighters are “defending” waiting for the last round or two.  Fantastically boring.

UPDATE #7

Is it just me or does MSNBC always show the time clock in Romney’s shots but NEVER in Obama’s?

UPDATE #8

Okay, there’s the clock behind Obama.

Immigration.  Little difference I suspect between the two.  However, Obama goofed on the Arizona law.  Police officers may NOT stop one because they look foreign.  Once stopped they may request papers…..

Romney is clearly not listening to me.  Stay on topic and leave the whole, “I need to answer the President” bit alone.

That being said, holy moly but I love it when they fight!

UPDATE #9

One hour and eight minutes in and we get Libya.

Finally.

Obama VERY strong on the first response to this question.

Obama, “We are gonna find out who did this and hunt them down.”  He even choked on that part he sounded so much like Dubya!

Incredible how you can tell when the candidate is reading the script and when he’s not.

All in all, I’m impressed with Obama’s response.  He took responsibility.

Jeepers Romney is weak on the response.  It’s as if he didn’t rehearse this response.

Oh for fuck’s sake.  Romney rambled on to include “apology tour.”

Obama’s answer to Libya has been powerful, Romney was unprepared for the canned answer and was schooled in the give and take.

Ooo.  Obama just lost the gain by being happy to move off the subject.  Reminder of debate #1.

For the record, I’ve read the transcript, the President does not describe the incident as a terrorist attack.  In fact the administration continually took the position that the attacks were spontaneous and a reaction to YouTube.

Obama is lying.

UPDATE #10

Okay, now I’m tired.

However, the question is outsourcing jobs.

Romney has an answer in two parts:

1.  America doesn’t make it attractive to hire here.  He’s right.

2.  He’s going to label China a currency manipulator and will impose tariffs.  He’s wrong.