Who Won

I can’t know.

No one doubts that Obama had his ass handed to him in the first debate.  And I think that has been clouding everyone’s expectations for this one.

If Obama is anything at all Presidential he’ll do better than he did last time; which is “a win.”  However, winning means swaying voters.

Obama was much stronger than he was last time.  And Romney was much more, ahh, less CEO’ish than last time.  I think that adds up to an Obama win.  I think Obama gets it in a nod; 3-4 points.  But I said that about Biden too.

The real question – Did either win votes?

No.

Neither did well enough to sway independents.

 

UPDATE:

Both CNN and CBS have Obama by 7 points.  They are both calling it an “edge.”

I agree.  Obama did better largely on the fact that he didn’t suck as much as he did last time.  Neither sealed the deal.

14 responses to “Who Won

  1. There are a few polls of independants out there alrready which look remarkably good for Obama, but I don’t trust them yet. In a day or two we’ll see. Meanwhile though, I think it was very strong for Obama. In fact, I think he was terrific and I think Romney looked diminished. Barry sounded presidential.

    • There are a few polls of independants out there alrready which look remarkably good for Obama, but I don’t trust them yet.

      Showing that Obama won the debate or showing Obama changing the momentum Romney enjoys in the election polling?

      Meanwhile though, I think it was very strong for Obama. In fact, I think he was terrific and I think Romney looked diminished. Barry sounded presidential.

      I thought both were overly aggressive; though they probably had to be. And neither sealed the deal.

      I’m trying to decide if Obama won because of a better debate or because he was so much better than last time.

      • Showing both actually. The ‘whos best to run economy’ from last night’s ‘insta polls’ was huge in Romney’s favor. THe rest in Obama’s favor, though not by such a larkge margin..

        Tomorrow should tell the tale. I still call it for my boy.

        • Tomorrow should tell the tale. I still call it for my boy.

          Yeah, we’ll begin to see the impact tomorrow and even more by Monday.

  2. I think what moves the polls is less independents shifting or being convinced and more supporters gaining or losing enthusiasm. Likely voter screens use enthusiasm as part of the calculus. After debate one Democrats lost enthusiasm and Romney supporters gained. That is part of what moved the polls. If Obama reinvigorated enthusiasm in his base, it will help his poll numbers. The uncertainty lies in whether enthusiasm really does increase voter turn out. I suspect it does, but in this election I expect both sides to be out in large numbers!

  3. The who’s best to run the economy question has to be more important than who won a debate . Even if you want to give the debate to the President, I doubt it will swing the election back to him .

    I know I did not sit through the whole debate . I doubt the undecided did either . That is why I do not see this performance helping the President . Both bases saw their guy win .

    Romney would have had to lose as big as the President did the first time and nobody is claiming that . The election is Romney’s to lose .

    • Normally Alan, I would agree that debates don’t decide elections. But Obama’s astonishingly bad first debate could very well have been the exception that proved the rule. Last night fixed a lot of that, but not all. If Romney wins, it will be because Obama lost the election two weeks ago.

      • Romney also moved to the center in the first debate and didn’t seem so scary. That apparently was in part due to a family revolt against the strategy that focused on the economy and appealed to the GOP base. Romney started bragging about the Massachusetts health care system “Romneycare” and made it seem like he actually favors such things.

        I still think Obama is in a strong position. The one tracking poll aside (which still had Obama up five two days after the first debate — Gallup is a seven day rolling average so it’s slower to register shifts), Obama holds slim leads in the swing states and the Obama ground game is stronger than 2008 — they’re also out performing their 2008 early voting efforts. Romney can win, but I think Intrade’s 63% odds favoring Obama are a pretty good guess.

  4. Even as I typed that new polls from WSJ/NBC/Marist and PPP came out with very good news for Obama in some swing states. We’re in for a fun ride the last three weeks!

  5. Ms. Holland ,

    You and I are in rare agreement . I think the first debate had more force than any of the others . I am more than a little interested in the process, and I can’t sit through the debates very well. I can’t imagine that the undecided sat through the second half of the second debate or will sit through the final one . Therefore I can’t see how President Obama turns this around .

    I am not ready to blame the first debate entirely for the President’s fading in the polls . Even when President Obama looked like he was running away with the election before the first debate , the experts I listen to were saying that the contest would break for Governor Romney late . The polls turning to Romney since the first debate seem to just be part of that .

    • The key was for Romney to shift to the center. He did that in the first debate and I agree with Alan here that even had Obama made a strong performance, the public perception of Romney changed. He wasn’t the scary 47% guy any more, he sounded reasonable and likable. That was something he had to do, and that shifted voters to him. The first debate mattered, but less for what Obama did or didn’t do than for what Romney did. If Romney had not pulled it off – if he had been weak and ineffective – then he might have been out. By shifting to the center, he resurrected his campaign.

      • Another thing to remember Scott,, is that for tens of millions of voters, the ‘debate Mitt’ is really the only Mitt they’ve seen. Most people don’t really pay close attention till the debates. For those for whom these three nights werre their into to Mitt – he looked quite credible to them.

        • For those for whom these three nights werre their into to Mitt – he looked quite credible to them.

          This is true. Which explains why he made such large gains in the polls after the first debate.

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