Category Archives: Elections 2012

2012 Election: Obama 271 Romney 267

Razor thin margins everywhere.

Back in August I had this to say:

I’m out on a limb with Virginia and Colorado while Obama is pretty much a lock in every state going blue in the map above.

I no longer think I’m on a limb in Virginia, possibly Colorado.  But Romney seems to have stolen New Hampshire.  And I think Iowa breaks Red.

Again, there is plenty of “limbness” going on here, but…and this is a significant but, if Romney moves even one single state such as Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio or Pennsylvania, it’s over.  Going back to August again I said this:

I think Obama will carry the big Ohio and Pennsylvania states with Florida going for Mitt.

I’m now more sure of Florida and less sure of Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Net/net – I am really demoralized that the Union states of Michigan and Ohio are supporting Obama as strong as they are.  The President made a clear power play there with the auto bailouts and then the ensuing bankruptcy that he totally manipulated.  Add in Wisconsin to that Union dominated list of states and you have an election dictated by Unions.

Yuck.

Romney Rising

I was reading Scott’s latest post over at World in Motion when I saw his update:

An added tidbit – Ezra Klein of the Washington Posts note that traders have been putting massive Romney bets in intrade to try to manipulate the market and make it appear Romney is rising.   Usually those upswings are short term as real investors recognize the chance for some ‘easy money’ off the manipulators.

I haven’t been over to Intrade for a few days so I thought I’d hit ’em up.

Here’s how Romney is doing since the 2st debate on October 3rd:

Romney has gone from 26 to 45 and rising.

What did Ezra have to say about the manipulation?

Here’s the backstory: On Monday night, after the debate, Barack Obama was leading Romney on Intrade by around 60 percent to 40 percent. But at around 10:00 a.m. on Tuesday morning, Romney had surged to nearly 49 percent. Was this evidence that the conventional wisdom was wrong? Had Romney actually won the debate handily? Or, alternatively, was the nosedive in the stock markets putting a dent in Obama’s re-election chances?

Or maybe it was something else. As economist Justin Wolfers pointed out on Twitter, the huge swing toward Romney appears to have been driven by a brief burst of trading, with someone spending about $17,800 to push Romney’s chances on Intrade up to 48 percent. But the surge only lasted about six minutes before other traders whittled the price back down to what they saw as a more accurate valuation. Romney’s odds of winning are, as of Tuesday morning, back at around 41 percent:

Ezra, at the writing of the article, points out that manipulation had boosted Romney’s numbers.  But even Mr. Klein acknowledges that the manipulation was corrected in 6 minutes.  It leads us to believe that the current value is the result of normal market forces.

But continuing to read the full column today, we see that Ezra has updated his post:

Update: Over at the Atlantic, Carl Wolfenden, the exchange operations manager for Intrade, says, “We checked this out for potential manipulation—it certainly fit the pattern at first glance.” But, he says, that doesn’t seem to be the case this time around. The Romney blip was apparently driven by a number of traders during an early-morning period when the market was very thin, rather than just one person.

Interesting.

Obama Rising

The President has won the last 2 debates.  Are we seeing a shift or a bubble?

 

President Obama, There You Go Again

As if it wasn’t bad enough that Obama lied his way through 3 debates, he’s out on the trail today and has been caught in another “whopper.”

Referencing Romney’s opposition to the auto bailout, Obama continued, “If you say you love American cars during a debate, but you wrote an article titled ‘Let Detroit Go Bankrupt’ — you may have Romnesia.”

Not only does Obama “forget to mention” that his plan eventually resulted in the bankruptcy of Detroit he fails to mention that Romney advocated federal assistance in that article.  The only thing that Romney objected to was the bailout; a view that in hindsight is 100% accurate.

And let’s not forget to mention that the sole beneficiary of that bailout was Obama’s union friends.

Obamnesia to be sure.

I’ve Said It Before … Obama Is A Liar

Incredibly I watched the whole debate last night.  I’m a well documented junkie now, but last night’s sleeper was just about as much as I could take.

90 minutes of boredom.  But there were some really good moments:

The first such moment is when Obama accused Romney of wanting to liquidate the auto industry.  By taking the position that the companies should have been brought through bankruptcy.  Obama said that Romney didn’t support Federal assistance.  Clearly he did.

There are more.  My next favorite is when Obama stood there, actually sat there, and said point blank that he did not support leaving troops in Iraq after the end of major conflict there.  Of COURSE Obama support that.  The condition is called Status of Forces.  And the President put Joe Biden in charge of securing it.  The fact that Joltin’ Joe couldn’t seal te deal doesn’t change the fact that Obama supported it.

On the subject of education Romney worked hard to demonstrate his state’s achievements while he was in office.  Romney mentioned the normal facts surrounding test scores, but then he moved into the “John and Abigail Adams Scholarships.”  Obama countered that fact by saying that had occurred before Romney came into office.

It’s hard to blame Obama.  He was defeated as soundly as any candidate in history during their first debate.  And last night it was Obama playing the role of challenger to Romney’s role champ.  Romney was simply playing defense and Obama was trying to … well, lie.

Shifting Priorities

I’m a week late on this; it’s been in my stack for awhile and the latest polling numbers from Gallup and Real Clear Politics reminded me that I need to push this out the door:

Suffolk University pollster David Paleologos, whose polls are aggregated into mainstream averages to show where the presidential race stands in the swing states, said he’s finished polling in Florida, North Carolina and Virginia because President Obama has no shot of winning those states.

“I think in places like North Carolina, Virginia and Florida, we’ve already painted those red, we’re not polling any of those states again,” Paleologos said Tuesday night on Fox’s “The O’Reilly Factor.” “We’re focusing on the remaining states.”

To be sure, Suffolk isn’t a polling firm I’m familiar with and they may very well be wrong.  But when a guy is watching trends this is big.

An Extension Of And Then a Grabbing Of

That darn Mormon continues to pull ahead:

It would appear that the undecideds are deciding.  That, or the republicans that have been on the fence are gaining confidence and moving themselves from “Registered Voter” to “Likely Voter.”

And then the big news:

For the first time, Romney is now ahead in the Electoral Map.

To be sure, we have 20 odd days to go, a debate to digest and another yet to take place.  Much can, and will, happen between now and election day.

But momentum feels good right now.

The Candy Crawley Bias

Last night was the second of the three Presidential debates.  As I mentioned in last night’s post, Obama won, but only but a little.  And even that win will not likely change many minds.  Much work has yet to be done.

However, during the debate last night, I was struck by an intervention from the debate moderator; Candy Crowley.  More on that in a second.

I think we’d ALL love to see a debate where the candidates were in a place where they spoke through a microphone.  And that mic would go mute the second their time was up.  AND we’d like to see that debate take place where independent fact checkers could be identifying lies and false statements.

It would be grand.

But that debate didn’t take place last night.  It was more traditional, both in terms of live mics and in terms of truth stretching.  And while the moderator has a role in the former, she has NO role in the latter.  It is NOT the job of a moderator to fact check candidates.

Especially when the tide of the debate is at such a point as to determine a winner and a loser.

But that is exactly what Candy Crowley did last night.  She interrupted Romney when he had Obama so far in the ropes that the only thing the President could do was hold up his gloves and offer, “Continue…”

Why Crowley would perform in this manner is unbelievable.  And why she would do it during a time when the President was clearly being dominated is equally unbelievable.  And then, as if the critique of her couldn’t get worse – it does.

She was wrong, Romney was right.  And she admits it after the debate:

The President absolutely did NOT refer to Libya as terrorist attacks.  Not that day, not that night and certainly not for the next two weeks.  THAT is the whole point.  That is the issue at hand.

And Crowley rung the bell early and let the reigning champ get up and pushed the challenger back to his corner.

Obama won the debate to be sure, but Crowley lost it big time.

Who Won

I can’t know.

No one doubts that Obama had his ass handed to him in the first debate.  And I think that has been clouding everyone’s expectations for this one.

If Obama is anything at all Presidential he’ll do better than he did last time; which is “a win.”  However, winning means swaying voters.

Obama was much stronger than he was last time.  And Romney was much more, ahh, less CEO’ish than last time.  I think that adds up to an Obama win.  I think Obama gets it in a nod; 3-4 points.  But I said that about Biden too.

The real question – Did either win votes?

No.

Neither did well enough to sway independents.

 

UPDATE:

Both CNN and CBS have Obama by 7 points.  They are both calling it an “edge.”

I agree.  Obama did better largely on the fact that he didn’t suck as much as he did last time.  Neither sealed the deal.

Romney And Obama – Second Presidential Debate

Okay, kids are in bed and I’m in front of my TV getting ready to watch the debate.

There is no way, none, that Obama can do worse than he did in the first debate.  He’s simply too competitive and too skilled to allow that to happen again.  I’m not sure what happened that first time; I suspect that the theory that speaks to his never having been challenged to be the closest to accurate.  That failure will be addressed this time around.

The key for Romney:

Continue to demonstrate that he has better plans and that those plans will directly help the average American.

The key for Obama:

Take responsibility and appear Presidential.  This includes not passing blame AND presenting a plan.

We’ll see.

UPDATE #1

Right.  Obama is not voting “present” tonight.  He’s much stronger and is going toe to toe with the Governor.

Romney – First and Last, he didn’t answer the question as to how he’s going to get Jeremy a job.

Obama – Left himself open on two points: GM Bankruptcy and Green Energy job.  Romney tagged him on one and missed on the second.

UPDATE #2

Obama’s answers on energy are the same as the answers when he ran the first time 4 years ago.  And his insistence that he’s for fossil fuel energy just isn’t believable.

Romney delivered a body blow in his answer; permits are down and production is down; though he did mix his % between the two.

WOW!  I love the direct back and forth.  I didn’t see that coming.

Hmmm……Crowley gives Obama a third whack at the question and is talking down Romney.  Out of bounds but good on Romney to muscle ahead.  Obama doesn’t help his cause with comments from the sidelines.

UPDATE #3

GREAT question on asking Romney to speak to the deduction he might consider eliminating.

And Romney addressed the main point with his first statement, “I want lower taxes for the middle class.”  His second point is also a strong one.  He clarifies his position that the wealthiest Americans will continue to pay the same proportion of taxes that they’ve been paying in the past.

In his response, Obama draws on Romney’s “60 Minutes” interview and delivers a strong blow to Romney.   It’s hard to defend the claim that “it’s fair” for Romney to pay a lower rate than a bus driver.  [Though to be fair, the pay the same rates].

Obama goes off the rails on his follow up response.  No one thinks that Romney is going to reduce tax revenue by $5 trillion.  The defense spending might score a point, but then Obama comes back with the continuation of the Bush tax  cuts for the wealthy.  He’s double counting that.

But Obama does score big when he challenges Romney on the specifics.

Let’s how Romney plays Obama’s tactic of rolling out the critiques in the last follow up.

Good on Crowley; she gives Romney an extra go at it.  But then he makes a mistake; he mixes up deficits and debt.  Obama DID promise to cut the deficit in half when he took office.  But Romney then mentions the debt has doubled.

UPDATE #4

Oh you poor little misguided woman.  I’m going to skip the update on this one because women do NOT earn 72% of the wages their male peers make.

UPDATE #5

Romney, dude, this is right to you – “Shut the hell up about equal time.  You look petty and dumb.”

So, how is Romney different than Dubya?  Sigh.  Serious?

He answered the question well enough but what people wanna hear, the money shot, is that he won’t get us into two foreign wars.  Romney didn’t touch on that and the moment is lost.

UPDATE #6

The man asked a question about how Obama would help his situation.  Obama talked and then Romney talked.  Neither one answered the man; all they did was repeat talking points.

Blah.

This is the late rounds of a heavy weight bout.  No knock downs and the fighters are “defending” waiting for the last round or two.  Fantastically boring.

UPDATE #7

Is it just me or does MSNBC always show the time clock in Romney’s shots but NEVER in Obama’s?

UPDATE #8

Okay, there’s the clock behind Obama.

Immigration.  Little difference I suspect between the two.  However, Obama goofed on the Arizona law.  Police officers may NOT stop one because they look foreign.  Once stopped they may request papers…..

Romney is clearly not listening to me.  Stay on topic and leave the whole, “I need to answer the President” bit alone.

That being said, holy moly but I love it when they fight!

UPDATE #9

One hour and eight minutes in and we get Libya.

Finally.

Obama VERY strong on the first response to this question.

Obama, “We are gonna find out who did this and hunt them down.”  He even choked on that part he sounded so much like Dubya!

Incredible how you can tell when the candidate is reading the script and when he’s not.

All in all, I’m impressed with Obama’s response.  He took responsibility.

Jeepers Romney is weak on the response.  It’s as if he didn’t rehearse this response.

Oh for fuck’s sake.  Romney rambled on to include “apology tour.”

Obama’s answer to Libya has been powerful, Romney was unprepared for the canned answer and was schooled in the give and take.

Ooo.  Obama just lost the gain by being happy to move off the subject.  Reminder of debate #1.

For the record, I’ve read the transcript, the President does not describe the incident as a terrorist attack.  In fact the administration continually took the position that the attacks were spontaneous and a reaction to YouTube.

Obama is lying.

UPDATE #10

Okay, now I’m tired.

However, the question is outsourcing jobs.

Romney has an answer in two parts:

1.  America doesn’t make it attractive to hire here.  He’s right.

2.  He’s going to label China a currency manipulator and will impose tariffs.  He’s wrong.