I got my first one wrong, though I admit, I only picked Wisconsin for Romney in the same way I pick an upset in the NCAA tourney. I thought that maybe Walker’s ground game would save the day.
However, there shouldn’t be a surprise anywhere yet.
In the head to head match-up, Silver is up by one over Rove; New Hampshire went for Obama.
I’m on track to be right; Obama wins.
Again, no surprises in the called states yet.
Of note, Michigan goes Obama and Florida and North Carolina are FAR too close for me.
I was reviewing the data and adding some additional information when I realized I put Florida in the wrong group; Florida is a “contested state.” Rove and Silver have it going different from each other.
Additionally I added my picks, the real value [updated as the races are called] and then Silver’s prediction confidence.
If you look at Silver as a basketball player and use his confidence % as his shooting percentage from different places on the floor, he has a 45.5% of hitting every “contested shot” excluding Florida. That success rate drops to 24.2 if you include Florida.
That means there’s a better than 50 – 50 chance he gets one wrong.
Not that we don’t have enough “they vs. we” going on through this election, but I wanted to set up one more; the Battle of the Maps. The darling of the Left is the most obvious contender. He’s new, young, fresh and, perhaps, most accurate. It is surprisingly difficult to find other polling outfits that actually predict the whole map. Most of them put the states into buckets leaving the hard picks as “toss ups.” So, I went with the guy that folks on the left hate; Karl Rove.
The result is shown above.
The two guys are remarkably close. Of 51 contests, they diverge on only 5. Those five states are listed up top; Iowa, Ohio, Virginia, New Hampshire and Colorado.
The next set are states that they agree on but could be wrong on. Most surprisingly are the states of Florida and North Carolina. I wouldn’t have guessed that Silver put them both in the red side. The other three, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are pretty close to a sure thing in my mind; I don’t think Romney takes any of the three. The closest state in play there is Wisconsin and the other two have been listed, so I keep those three listed separate as well.
The remaining states are pretty close to locks. If forced to choose an upset from each side I’d go with Minnesota or Nevada in the Blue and Arizona from the Red.
Interesting contest to be sure.
And I love the “Red Necks” that live here:
Nothing says “cool” as a pink Romney/Ryan sticker on a mini-van carrying a Jeff Gordon NASCAR license plate.
Turns out the Redskins are a pretty good predictor of things like Presidential Elections:
Romney, who was born in Michigan and was once the governor of Massachusetts, doesn’t have any ties to the Charlotte area. But he’s certainly well aware of the Redskins Rule. Specifically: Going back to 1940, a Redskins victory in their last home game before the election has meant the party currently in power remained in power 17 of 18 times. With a Redskins loss on Sunday to the Panthers, that portends good things for Romney’s political future.
I’ll take everything I can get!
Jack Chambless nails it:
I am voting for Mitt Romney for three reasons. First, the hidden camera bit where he discussed the “47%” was dead on. Saying that in private and getting busted for it was wonderful. He got busted for telling the truth. I like it when people speak economic truths. That says a lot about what he understands and where his perspective lies.
Second, much of what he wants to do – economically speaking – is good stuff and he understands the case for building businesses, creating jobs and reducing our debt. Will he do it? I sure hope so.
Third – and this is where my fellow Libertarians need to focus – the long-run consequences of four more years of the hope and change wagon rolling over us and the Constitution must end. Now is no time to stand by our hard-headed, Fed-hating, dope legalizing views and vote for Mr. Paul or Mr. Johnson.
If you Libertarians truly are as smart as you think you are then you will adopt some good old fashioned John Nash game theory and look at a strategy that minimizes the damage of your options rather than trying to maximize the gain from some choice. This, dear friends is the case…
If Mr. Obama wins, liberty in the long run is in such trouble, and the debt hole, health care hole, tax hole, etc. etc. will be so deep that no future disciple of Ron Paul or Ronald Reagan will be able to pull this fragile republic out of the depths of entrenched Socialism.
Sing it sis’tah!
Romney was losing badly before the first debate. Largely due to the fact that America hadn’t seen him and was relying on the negative attack ads delivered by the Obama campaign they viewed him as a monster.
Then came Colorado.
And Romney showed himself as a compassionate capable leader who would deliver America to a path far more favorable than Obama.
And he sky rocketed.
Obama won the second debate in a narrow decision, it did very little to slow the momentum.
The third debate was more of a decisive victory for the President and he enjoyed a resurgence; Gallup, a favorite of the left, saw Romney’s lead go from +7 to +3 in days. However, today Romney is back to +5 thanks in part to rising Romney and falling Obama.
Further hurting Obama is the on going drama that is Benghazi. It’s clear now that the Obama administration handled this badly. They had direct knowledge within hours, failed to act appropriately and then lied to the American people starting in the Rose Garden, in spite of Candy Crowley’s defense.
Romney gains as Obama loses in Likely voters while Obama suffers a 6 point turn around in Approval.
So I was researching some stuff for my post on the USS Minnesota when I came across this trivia:
Minnesota has the longest streak of voting for Democratic presidential candidates than any other state in the nation.
And this is during a discussion of who Romney should choose for a running mate.
Minnesota giveth and Minnesota taketh away!