Razor thin margins everywhere.
Back in August I had this to say:
I’m out on a limb with Virginia and Colorado while Obama is pretty much a lock in every state going blue in the map above.
I no longer think I’m on a limb in Virginia, possibly Colorado. But Romney seems to have stolen New Hampshire. And I think Iowa breaks Red.
Again, there is plenty of “limbness” going on here, but…and this is a significant but, if Romney moves even one single state such as Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio or Pennsylvania, it’s over. Going back to August again I said this:
I think Obama will carry the big Ohio and Pennsylvania states with Florida going for Mitt.
I’m now more sure of Florida and less sure of Ohio and Pennsylvania.
Net/net – I am really demoralized that the Union states of Michigan and Ohio are supporting Obama as strong as they are. The President made a clear power play there with the auto bailouts and then the ensuing bankruptcy that he totally manipulated. Add in Wisconsin to that Union dominated list of states and you have an election dictated by Unions.
Public policy polling, which has been very accurate this cycle, published a poll today with Obama up 5 in Virginia: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/obama-lead-in-virginia-up-to-5-points.html
Early voting in Iowa is big, and reports I’m hearing is that Romney will have trouble taking that state. Colorado will also be a GOTV test — it also has more than half its votes cast early, and if Obama’s ground game is as good as they say, it could make a difference there. If Obama’s ground game is really big (and if early voting is more important than some think), North Carolina could go blue again – what’s your read on early voting there? New Hampshire to me remains a toss up. The polling there has been ambiguous.
I still think Obama will get a mini-bounce from debate 3, which could also affect the very close states, perhaps even Florida where the ground game is also big. If your map is accurate, then Romney is right to be focusing so much on Ohio – anything can happen in 12 days!
Public policy polling, which has been very accurate this cycle,
How do you know? The cycle isn’t over yet.
I still think Obama will get a mini-bounce from debate 3
Today Gallop showed the Likely Voter count to stand still. If that was Obama’s bounce you’re right, it was mini. Now we’ll see if it was a bounce or if it is the “new normal.”