Category Archives: Economics

The Impact Of The Tea Party

Tea Party Spending

The debate is raging in Washington.  Can the government spending excess be reigned in.  On the one had we have an Obama administration that wants to spend and spend and spend.  There can be no doubt as to their desired policy – more government spending is better government spending.

And then you have the Tea Party.  Facing opposition not only from the democrats but also from the republican establishment.

And what have they accomplished in their short existence?  Look at the graph above.

They stopped the spending in its tracks.

Rage on little T, rage on!

Voting With Their Feet

Vote WIth Feet

Interesting data showing how American’s vote with their feet.

Income Disparity

Monopoly Free Market

Interesting move by the Fed this afternoon.  By announcing that they would continue the quantitative easing, the stock market responded with record highs:

NEW YORK — The stock market hit a record high Wednesday after the Federal Reserve’s surprise decision to keep its economic stimulus in place.

Bond yields fell sharply — their biggest move in nearly two years. Meanwhile, the price of gold jumped as some traders anticipated that the Fed’s decision might cause inflation.

In a statement, Fed policymakers voted to maintain the central bank’s $85 billion-a-month bond-buying program, which has been in place in one form or another since late 2008. It is designed to keep interest rates low to spur economic growth.

What this decision does is pump more money into the economy.  And whenever you do that, the cost of stuff goes up.

Consider an “economy” made up of 100 gold pieces and 20 loaves of bread.  In this case, bread costs 5 gold pieces per loaf.  Now, if we double the number of gold pieces floating, does anyone not believe the cost of bread will also not double?

So, when the Fed continues a policy that is pumping money into the market, the price of the “market” doubles.

So the next time a liberal is hollering that the income of the wealthy is rising faster than the income of the poor, you can point to Obama and his Federal Reserve.  After all, the primary source of income of the wealthy is the market and not salary.

Obama is the one responsible for the income disparity that we have recently seen.

Housing Crisis – Data Point

Housing BubbleThere is no doubt that the housing crisis was caused by government policy.  Bad actors everywhere?  Sure.  But at the root of it all the was the government’s desire – by both parties – to increase home ownership in America.  And specifically for the poor and minorities.

With that in mind:

There is no doubt what really happened. Between 1997 and 2007, HUD’s affordable-housing policies under two administrations built an enormous mortgage bubble—nine times as large as any bubble in modern history—and when this bubble collapsed, it caused a 30%-40% decline in housing prices. This left homeowners who had limited financial resources and no equity in their houses unable to refinance or sell, causing an unprecedented number of mortgage defaults. Shocked by these numbers, investors fled mortgage-backed securities, making them useless for short-term financing by financial institutions like Lehman. The result was a panic and a financial crisis.

Indeed.

As I mentioned, there were guilty actors everywhere. Everyone from the appraiser who fudge the home value to the banker who pressured lending agents to companies that engaged in fraud – guilty all.

But it was the government, through the agencies Freddie and Fannie that drove the whole failure.

Consider:

HUD was still at it in 2004, stating that “Millions of Americans with less than perfect credit or who cannot meet some of the tougher underwriting requirements of the prime market . . . rely on subprime lenders for access to mortgage financing. If the GSEs reach deeper into the subprime market, more borrowers will benefit from the advantages that greater stability and standardization create.”

That statement is all you need to understand why, in 2008, 74% of the subprime mortgages outstanding in the U.S. financial system were on the books of government agencies, particularly Fannie and Freddie.

 

 

The Value Of Employment’s First Rung

Minimum WageMuch has been discussed with jobs, minimum wage, poverty, the income gap and unemployment.  One of my central themes is that wages are not the full story when it comes to compensation.  Another is that minimum wage jobs are NOT meant to be careers and certainly are not meant to be a means by which we raise a family.

Rather, these jobs are meant to be the first rung in the employment ladder.  In addition to modest wages they teach job skills; customer service, scheduling, listening, task completion and plain old “boss respect”.

An old story that emphasizes this point:

Here’s one reason why Volkswagen likes hiring former fast-food employees for its 2.5 million-square-foot plant here in the heart of the Tennessee Valley.

“Inexperience is a key,” said Gary Booth, director of the Volkswagen Academy training operation. “Some of our best employees came from McDonald’s. They know standardized work.”

Booth, strolling the halls of Volkswagen’s 163,000-square-foot training facility connected to the plant, said he doesn’t want to hire assembly-line workers who have developed “bad habits” at previous manufacturing jobs.

I work at a highly specialized center and I continually advocate hiring local McDonald managers to fill our centers.

Just sayin’.

Profiling

Profiling

Just this afternoon I profiled an individual in my neighborhood.

I know most of the people on my street.  To be sure, not by name but by demographic; age, sex, race, sex and such.  I know if someone I see is a member of that street or not.  Further, I know most of their habits and activities; schools, sports, walking or biking – things that they do when I see them.

Coming into my driveway I noticed a kid – 16 to 19- sitting on one of the utilities facility boxes, you know, those green things for the phone or cable company?  No one that age lives within 15 houses either way.  No one I know of in that age isn’t in school or in some activity that time of day.  I’ve never seen a kid smoking a cigarette while walking around the neighborhood.

Or sitting on a utility box on someone else’s property.

It’s 85-90 today here in Raleigh.  The kid was overdressed in cargo pants and a sweatshirt, though no hoodie.

I walked to the end of my driveway, directly approaching him – the box is right across the street from me- and looked him straight in the eye as I approached.  He kept my gaze without blinking.

I got my mail and walked back.

From my windows I watched him finish his smoke, get up and walk away.  I then followed him until he turned the corner.

I did not call 9-1-1 or engage him.  But I followed him.  And I have zero neighborhood watch training.  And if I wanna watch a kid whom I have never seen acting in a way and manner inconsistent with kids in my neighborhood I’m gonna watch him.  And make note of him.

And any claim that I “don’t need to follow him” will be met with a gigantic FU.

By the way.  The boy was white with striking blue eyes; like a Siberian Husky.

This boy was 100% profiled.  And it had 0% to do with his race.

Wage Gap – Employment Gap

Increasing Bar GraphThe argument has long been, “The rich get richer while the poor get poorer.”

There are two problems with the statement:

  1. The people who make up the poor and who make up the rich change over time.  This is especially true when rich and poor are defined by wages only.
  2. This argument never takes into account “externalities”

For example, the argument never admits that we are looking at families and not individuals.  As such, it would be valuable to look at how families are changing over time.  But we never get that.

Additionally, it would be important to look at education and how it  has changed over time.  Again, nothing.

But today we have a new report that provides insight:

WASHINGTON — The gap in employment rates between America’s highest- and lowest-income families has stretched to its widest levels since officials began tracking the data a decade ago, according to an analysis of government data conducted for The Associated Press.

Rates of unemployment for the lowest-income families — those earning less than $20,000 — have topped 21 percent, nearly matching the rate for all workers during the 1930s Great Depression.

U.S. households with income of more than $150,000 a year have an unemployment rate of 3.2 percent, a level traditionally defined as full employment. At the same time, middle-income workers are increasingly pushed into lower-wage jobs. Many of them in turn are displacing lower-skilled, low-income workers, who become unemployed or are forced to work fewer hours, the analysis shows.

Amazing.  And truly heart breaking.  The very folks that need, and I mean NEED, a job are faced with unemployment levels that make it virtually impossible to find work.

A rational policy decision would be to make work as easy as possible to give away.  That is, let these people find and accept a job anywhere they can for whatever wage they can.  Ironically, the administration that most of these folks feel are helping them out are really hurting them the most.

One of the most devastating things that can happen to a worker out of work is to see the wage of the jobs he wants raised above his reasonable level of productivity.  This has the effect of discriminating against him for no reason other than he lacks the skills to obtain better work; skills that are often learned while working.

Don’t forget the history of the minimum wage:

Did you know that there was a time in our country, after the Civil War, when white unemployment was higher than black unemployment? It seems almost unfathomable now, but that was the case in the early decades of the 20th century. This was intentionally changed after Congress enacted the first federal minimum wage law: the Davis-Bacon Act of 1931.

As most of us remember from history class, the 1930s saw a plethora of public works projects introduced to combat the unemployment associated with the Great Depression. (Whether or not this worked is a topic for another day.) But during that time, many impoverished blacks left sharecropping to come north in search of such jobs. The Davis-Bacon Act was created specifically and explicitly to prevent blacks from “taking” these jobs from local white workers.

Congressman Robert Bacon of New York began crafting various pieces of legislation to discriminate against black workers when a black construction crew from Alabama was brought to his state to build a hospital for veterans in 1927. Because most blacks lived in the South, any laws restricting the use of migrant labor discriminated against them. Since blacks were not admitted to trade unions, any law that favored union labor automatically excluded blacks. Bacon submitted 13 such bills over the next four years, culminating in the Davis-Bacon Act.

The act mandated that federal contracts pay their workers the “prevailing wage.” As innocent as this might sound, records of the debate over the bill reveal that everyone understood the “prevailing wage” meant the union wage and that this meant there would be no blacks working on federal projects. In fact, when testifying before the Senate in favor of Davis-Bacon, American Federation of Labor union president William Green complained, “Colored labor is being brought in to demoralize wage rates.”

The federal minimum wage may no longer be racist in intent, but it is still racist in its effects. Labor is affected by supply and demand, just like anything else. If we pass a law that raises the cost of printer paper to $100 a ream, companies will find a way to use less printer paper. In the same way, when the law raises the cost of labor, companies purchase fewer hours of labor.

The history of the minimum wage was SPECIFICALLY meant to discriminate against black workers.  And the effects of that law have created the condition we see today.

US Federal Government and Wal-Mart

Wal MartWalmart is evil, right?  Low paying jobs that keep the masses poor.  They brow beat their suppliers into selling at such low prices that no one can make a living.

They are the worst of the worst.  Right?

Maybe not:

The federal government is better at creating low-paying jobs than Wal-Mart and McDonald’s combined, according to a new report.

A study released earlier this month from the public policy group Demos states that through various forms of government funding in the private sector, nearly two million people are making $12 an hour or less. The number of workers at Wal-Mart and McDonald’s together at $12 an hour or less is currently around 1.5 million, according to the report.

Personally, the quality of government help is such that earning more than 12 bucks is surprising, so…..I’m mostly okay with the data.

But it sure is interesting that Obama has more “slave wage” jobs than Wal-Mart and Micky Dee’s combined.

 

Poverty, Africa And The Minimum Wage

African Poverty

There’s a bunch of talk about the minimum wage with the recent fast-food protests.  People are dismayed that there are jobs that only pay $7.25 an hour and claim that there is no way that you can support a family on that amount of money.

Forget for a second that no one believe you should START a family on $7.25.  Forget that a vanishingly small number of people earn the minimum wage and that it is an entry level position where future job skills are learned.

The economics of the thing is what matters.

In a world that has been faced with bone jarring poverty in large swaths of our populations, and with the ever increasing globalization of our economy, it only makes sense that as millions and millions of people enter the “global work force” that competition for jobs increases.  And as that occurs, the cost of labor is going to go down.

I’ve never understood the Leftist who complains about the diminished wages of Americans while at the same time bemoaning the poverty of people in Asia, India and Africa.

But there is good news.  These regions are leaving poverty behind:

AFRICA’s poverty levels are falling by one percentage point per year, with the absolute number of people living below the poverty datum line declining drastically, the World Bank Group has said.

As a result of the impressive economic growth rate, the continent has been posting in the last 10 years, the poverty rate has gone down, while the number of people living below the datum line of US$1.25 per day, has fallen by nine million in three years.

World Bank Group president, Jim Yong Kim said here during the opening session of the fifth Tokyo International Conference on African Development (TICAD V) that, the bank has placed Africa at the core of its effort to end poverty and boost shared prosperity.

He said the growth the continent had recorded in the last 10 years had impacted on the poverty levels.

“The growth has had an impact on poverty – the poverty rate has been falling at one percentage point a year. For the first time, the absolute number of people living below $1.25 a day has fallen – by nine million in three years,” he said.

Soon these places and their people will cease to be “any job at any price” employees and will enter a condition where they will become consumers.  They’ll surpass their needs of food and clothing and begin to want the Nikes, the iPads and the Plantations.

Consider:

(Reuters) – When Wal-Mart Stores the world’s top retailer, bought control of major South African discount chain Massmart Holdings in 2011, American shopping mall developer Irwin Barkan had an epiphany.

An industry veteran of 30 years, Barkan’s U.S. home market was “graying”, while the youthful, underdeveloped African continent offered a sweet spot, with a rapidly expanding middle class and no competition from online retailers.

“When Wal-Mart announced it was buying 51 percent of Massmart, I knew that if I was going to stay in business, Africa was where I had to go,” he said.

He moved last year to Ghana, one of the continent’s brightest economic hopes, and his company, BG International, has broken ground on what will be an 18,400-square-metre (200,000 sq feet) enclosed mall in West Accra. Another mall planned for Ghana’s second city of Kumasi is at a similar stage.

Barkan is not alone. Across Africa, commercial real estate developers are responding to the lure of one of the world’s fastest-growing consumer markets and rushing to build malls for eager retailers.

Consumer spending accounted for more than 60 percent of sub-Saharan Africa’s buoyant economic growth, the World Bank said in its Africa Pulse report in April, adding economic growth would accelerate to more than 5 percent over the next three years, far outpacing the global average.

Africa can be said to be rising.  And with it, the wages and hopes and dreams of an entire continent.  And as THAT occurs, the downward pressure on wages in America will ease.

So, fellow Americans, take solace in your hearts that a very predictable economic truth is unfolding.  As the poorest individuals in the world lurch out of abject poverty, our wages will struggle.  But as those poor become consumers, we will recover.

Take solace and rejoice in the power of the economic engine that is capitalism.

 

If I Had A Dream

MLK

If I had a dream, it would be that all people, regardless of color or nationality, would have the same shot at success that I have.  And in the glow of the 50th Anniversary of Martin’s speech, I am depressed that we aren’t there yet.

And infuriated that the policies of the Left, who claim to have the best interests of black America as their goal, has made it so much harder than it has to be:

The history of black workers in the United States illustrates the point.  As already noted, from the late nineteenth-century on through the the middle of the twentieth-century, the labor force participation rate of American blacks was slightly higher than that of American whites.  On other words, blacks were just as employable at the wages they received as whites were at their very different wages.  The minimum wage law changed that.  Before federal minimum wage laws were instituted in the 1930’s, the black unemployment rate was slightly lower than the white unemployment rate in 1930.  But then followed the Davis-Bacon Act of 1931the National Industrial Recovery Act of 1933 and the Fair Labor Standards Act of 1938 – all of which imposed government-mandated minimum wages, either on a particular sector or more broadly.

The National Labor Relations Act of 1935, which promoted unionization, also tended to to price b lack workers out of jobs, in addition to union rules that kept blacks from jobs by barring them from union membership.  The National Industrial Recovery Act raised wages in the Southern textile industry by 70% iin just five months and its impact nationwide was estimated to have cost blacks half a million jobs.  While this Act was later declared unconstitutional by the Supreme Court, the Fair Labor Standards Act of 1938 was upheld by the High Court and became the major force in establishing a national minimum wage.  As already noted, the inflation of the 1940’s largely nullified the effect of the Fair Labor Standards Act, until it was amended in 1950 to raise minimum wages to a level that would have some actual effect on current wages.  By 1954, black unemployment rates were double those of whites and have continued to be at that level or higher.  Those particularly hard hit by the resulting unemployment have been black teenage males.

Even through 1949 – the year before a series of minimum wage escalations began – was a recession year, black teenage male unemployment that year was lower than it was to be during the later boom years of the 1960’s.  The wide gap of unemployment rate of black and white teenagers dates from the escalation of the minimum wage and the spread of its coverage in the 1950’s.  The usual explanations of high unemployment of black teenagers -inexperience, less education, lack of skills, racism – cannot explain their rising unemployment, since all these things were worse during the earlier period when black teenage unemployment was much lower.  Taking the more normal year of 1948 as a basis for comparison, black male teenage unemployment then was less than half of what it would be during the decade of the 1960’s and less than one-third of what it would be in the 1970’s.

Unemployment among 16 and 17-year-old black males was no higher than among white males of the same age in 1948.  It was only after a series of minimum wage escalations began that black male teenage unemployment not only skyrocketed but became more than double the unemployment rates among white male teenagers.  In the early twenty-first century, the unemployment rate for black teenagers exceeded 30 percent.  After the American economy turned around in the wake of the housing and financial crisis, unemployment among black teenagers reached 40 percent.

The juxtaposition of the stories this week, Martin’s speech and the fast food worker’s strike, is a simple lesson of a sublime dream turned into nightmare by the policies of a party gone horrible wrong.