Tag Archives: Republican

And I Will Name Him — Success

I can’t prove it, of course.  And, in fact, it may not even happen.  But I swear to you that I won’t be surprised if the recent reports of H1N1 vaccine being available is reported as reducing the number of cases of H1N1.

Back in late November, experts were calling the H1N1 peak:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The pandemic of swine flu may be hitting a peak in the Northern Hemisphere, global health officials said on Friday, but they cautioned it was far from over.

Not sure that a lot of people caught that.  And for those that did, they may have responded like I did:

Big “effin” deal.  My family already got it.

But, when you combine the news that the outbreak has peaked with this bit of good news:

Raleigh, N.C. — About 200 people showed up Tuesday morning at the Wake County Public Health Center in Raleigh to get the H1N1 flu vaccine.

Tuesday was the first day the county opened the vaccine up to anyone over 6 months old.

Traffic was slow and steady at the Sunnybrook Road location, as well as three other health department sites in Fuquay-Varina, Wake Forest and Zebulon.

Ray Martin, 71, said he was in and out of the Raleigh site in 15 minutes – a stark contrast to earlier this year, in which hundreds lined up and were turned away due to a limited supply of the vaccine.

Now look, I for one am very pleased to see that those folks who need a shot are getting one.  But really.  Providing a shot to people older than 6 months of age fully 2 weeks AFTER the peak is not really A-Okay in my book.  Especially considering that the vaccine takes nearly 2 weeks to fully “bake-in”.

Sadly, I am afraid that this is what we have to look forward to in the Government sponsored health care.  See, in the world of government, a vaccine is an expense that needs to be minimized.  In the private world, the vaccine is a product that needs to be available, marketed and sold.

‘Nuff said.

Where a Picture is Worth a Thousand Words

I like this picture:

National Job Approval" Barach Obama December 8, 2009

Partly because it’s showing the shine is wearing off and America is starting to understand what many of us saw at the outset.  But also because this is a “poll of polls”.  Go to the site and see for yourself.  Each dot in the graph shows the results of an independent poll.  USToday, CNN, Gallup and so on.  And, in short, the survey SAYS!

NoBama.

Poor Form

I get why people hate politics and politicians.  Heck, I hate politics and politicians.  We should be able to get to the point where we can disagree and yet still have the class to let someone go to the restroom:

After 75 minutes and 14 split votes Monday, Tony Gurley and the GOP regained the top spot on the Wake County Board of Commissioners – on a tie-breaker achieved only when member Betty Lou Ward took an unexcused bathroom break.

See, the Wake County Board is made up of 7 members.  Right now the Democrats have control of the Board 4-3.  One of the members, a Democrat suffered a stroke and has been unable to attend meetings; that makes it 3-3.  Last night the board was electing a new chairman and after 75 minutes and multiple votes, could get past the 3-3 tie.  That’s when Ms. Ward went to the bathroom.  Because she didn’t officially request an absence, the Board was within it’s right to vote without her, and they did.

Legal?  Yes.  Without class?  Absolutely.

Barely Legal

I was thinking about this last night as I was posting on the “Night is Day” thing:

All eight initiatives were the result of a series of private meetings in the past month between the four new members and the new board chairman, Ron Margiotta. Those meetings also included members of private groups that Margiotta declined to identify. Members of the new majority defended their private meetings, saying they didn’t violate state mandates because they had yet to be sworn in.

Look, I get it.  The old Board did things, and in ways, that some people didn’t like.  Because of that, the election process removed them from their seats and gave new people with new voices the ability to shape things.  That’s ho it’s supposed to work.  I’m very happy that it did work.

But these shenanigans are really really over the top:

Malone said they met before Tuesday because heading into the meeting unprepared would have sent their supporters a bad message.

“It’s not illegal,” Malone said. “We needed to be prepared. I had nightmares about walking into the meeting not being prepared.”

It’ll be fun to continue to watch this.  Fun to see if anything really changes.

Where Red is Blue and Blue is Red

I have been following the WCPSS drama for nearly three years now.  Besides the pure raw emotion poured into this debate, the shocking role reversal has been astounding.  Now, you would be hard pressed to find anything more local than a school board; perhaps a Home Owners Association or maybe a PTA board, but really, for all intents and purposes, the local school board is as close to the people as government is going to get.  And with that in mind, the folks involved, on both sides, really do try and give the appearance that they are not affiliated with any major political party.

But they are; they all are.

The support and the money breaks too neatly down party lines for it to be ignored.

All of which gives me a moment’s pause.  You see, when it really comes down to it, we have conservatives acting like liberals and liberals acting like conservatives.   And I say that from a conservative view-point.  See, normally, we on the right are acting from a standpoint of Liberty and freedom.  But here, the Republicans are acting like they can ignore such things.  For example, given two quotes, tell me which is the conservative and which is the liberal:

Politician One:  “We have to do something and move forward,” Politician One said. “Parents have a right to decide if they want a year-round school.”

Politician Two:  “If we’re talking about doing away with year-round schools, we’ll have to raise taxes,”

See what I mean?  You can’t tell.  You can’t tell because you know what the answer SHOULD be, but because I have been ranting you feel suspicious.  In this topsy tervyy world that is WCPSS, you have conservatives claiming they have a “Right” to select the location of their public education and you have a liberal resisting a tax increase.  Amazing.

Tough to Call

The House of Representatives voted to pass their version of the Health Care bill.  The vote was close, 220-215.  Of the 220 “Yeah” votes, only one of them was from a Republican congressman; Joseph Cao from Louisiana.  Already Republicans are deserting him:

The only Republican in the House to vote for a Democrat-backed health care bill says he has had two fundraisers canceled since Saturday’s vote and some campaign contributors have asked for their money back.

I don’t agree with the Grand Old Party on this one; I think they have it wrong.  This is delicate situation for Joseph.  The only reason he has the seat is because the incumbent, William Jefferson, was caught with 80k in his freezer.  On top of that, the  election that resulted in Cao winning the seat was delayed twice due to hurricanes.  This meant that the star power of Obama wasn’t on the ballot; many many Democrats just stayed home.  And he still only barely won.

Look, the bill didn’t pass because of Joseph, a firm anti-abortion advocate, voted yes.  In fact, the bill may have passed because Republicans got their way–they insisted that strong anti-abortion language be inserted in the bill giving cover to the more conservative democrats who may come from pro-life districts.  In fact, Cao didn’t even cast his vote until AFTER the 218th vote had already been counted.

This is a case of a Republican trying to stay in office.  Hard to blame him.

Hot Stove League

The Twins traded Carlos Gomez to the Brewers for J.J. Hardy on Friday.  The thinking in the Twins front office is that they were able to move out weak hitting center fielder and bring in a short stop that can hit for power and has a decent average.  Further, Hardy is a fantastic fielder bringing an elite defender to the Twins infield.

This is a good deal.

twins

The Democrats would have us believe the same is true of the trade they made this past Saturday.  What they have passed in the house is a trade of sorts.  The thinking in the minds of the Democrats is that we are able to get rid of a system that costs too much and leaves too many people uninsured.  By passing laws that prohibit insurance companies from denying coverage based on pre-existing conditions they are able to bring in a system that allows for insurance to everyone.  Further, to help bring down costs to those most in need, the plan calls for all Americans to enroll in an approved policy or face a fine.

This is a good deal.

Back to baseball.  I began to look a little deeper into the trade and began to see a couple of things.  By moving Gomez out and brining in Hardy, not only did we trade away a .229 average for a player that hit .283 in 2008.  Further, Brady hit 24 HR to 3 for Gomez.  On top of that, with Gomez out of the lineup the Twins now have room for Delmon Young who has a career average of .290.  Not only are we trading for a player with 57 some odd points to the plus, we are also able to play Young for a full season.

This is turning into a REALLY good deal.

On top of the fact that insurance companies are no longer able to restrict insurance for people with pre-existing conditions the House bill doesn’t raise taxes for a majority of Americans.  Rather, people making $500,000 or more would see a 5.4% increase on their tax bill.  Further, those “Gold Plated” policies would see a tax hike; up to 40%.  But for the average middle class American, the tax bill remains the same.  On top of that, the bill includes language that allows families making up to 400% of the poverty level to receive federal assistance; albeit on a sliding scale.  Last, if you currently receive insurance from your employer, you can continue to do so.  Or, if you don’t, there will be a National Exchange.

This is turning into a REALLY good deal.

As I wrap up my trade analysis, I end up with the unintended consequences.  By trading away Carlos Gomez, the Twins center fielder, the team must now play Denard Span in CF.  And THAT means with Span in center, Delmon Young has to play in left field.  Now, when the Twins had Gomez in CF and Young in LF, they were able to brag the best OF in baseball.  But, with the unintended consequence of Span in center and Young in left, the Twins will now be  start the worst OF in baseball; to the tune of 88 runs to the bad.  That doesn’t even come close to the benefit they gain by adding Hardy to the team.

The unintended consequence of a horrible defense has made this trade:  BAD.

Sadly, the story is much the same for the Democrats and the House bill.  By allowing people to purchase insurance without regard for pre-existing conditions, people are not compelled to purchase insurance while they are healthy; they can be assured that they can buy it when they become sick.  But-but-but, they HAVE to buy a policy or they will pay a fine!  Well, the fine is very very much less than whatever policy I would otherwise buy:

The average cost of an insurance policy with family coverage in 2009 is $13,375. A married couple with a median family income of $75,000 who choose not to insure would be subject to a fine of 2.5 percent of that $75,000, or $1,875. So the family would save a net $11,500 by not insuring.

Hmm, the unintended consequences of horrible incentives has made this trade:  BAD.

results

Infant Mortality Rate

The race is on.  Health Care reform’s time has come-or gone.  Whatever side you come down on, the debate is intense.  And so it has been with friends and colleagues of mine.  One one side you have those that claim the United States spends more money per year on health care and has one of the worst systems in the industrial world.  On the other side you have the opposite.  These people admit that while we may spend more than any other nation on health care this claim would be equally true of expenditures on blue jeans, pro sporting tickets, aquariums, X-boxes and lawn mowers.  Further, rather than being one of the worst providers of medical care, these folks would argue that the Unites States delivers the best care in the world.

Who is right?  Let’s go to the data.  I am going to focus on the infant mortality rate – IMR.  Those who champion universal health care claim that the United States ranks 30th in the world in IMR.  A quick check shows that indeed, we do:

IMR Ranking

Further, they claim that infant mortality rate is an indicator of health care services in a country.  For this to be true, three conditions must be met:

  1. All nations are reporting their numbers correctly/consistently.
  2. The infants that are dying are of the same type.
  3. Factors other than medical services are being accounted for.

Consistency in Reporting

We know for a fact that not all nations count the infant mortality rate the same.   In the United States, we use the WHO definition:

Live birth refers to the complete expulsion or extraction from its mother of a product of conception, irrespective of the duration of the pregnancy, which, after such separation, breathes or shows any other evidence of life – e.g. beating of the heart, pulsation of the umbilical cord or definite movement of voluntary muscles – whether or not the umbilical cord has been cut or the placenta is attached. Each product of such a birth is considered live born.

In Europe, for example, they use a different definition:  [see page 122]

The infant mortality rate is defined as the number of infant deaths (days 0-364) after live birth at or
after 22 completed weeks of gestation in a given year, expressed per 1000 live births in the same
year.

And yet, even this definition is not standard across the European Countries: [see page 122]

Almost all countries provided data on overall infant mortality rates. However, many fewer were able to provide data on infant mortality rates by gestational age or birth weight, since infant deaths are registered in separate systems and not linked to perinatal data. These data were available for gestational age only from Flanders and Brussels in Belgium, Denmark, Estonia, Latvia, Malta, Austria, Poland, Finland, Sweden, the UK, and Norway.

This means, of course, that for countries like Portugal, France, Belgium, Greece, Germany, Spain, Switzerland, Austria, Italy and the Netherlands the method for counting don’t abide to even the less restrictive definition that the rest of the EU uses.  And all of these countries rank higher than the United Sates in the ranking by the CDC.  Further, the United States actually OVER reports the live births and subsequent deaths.

What happens when adjustments are made for these differences?

Norway boasts one of the lowest infant mortality rates in the world. But when the main determinant of mortality — weight at birth — is factored in, Norway has no better survival rates than the United States.

Which Infants Are Dying

The reason for the death is important in measuring IMR as well.  If, for example, there is an indicator that results in a much larger IMR than another, and that indicator is present in one population but not another, that would explain a difference in the two IMR rankings.  One of the first things that we should look at in determining if these IMR rankings are accurate is to identify if such in indicator exists.  And it does:

In 2004, the U.S. infant mortality rate (excluding births at less than 22 weeks of gestation) was 5.8, nearly twice the rate of 3.0 for Sweden, one of the two European countries with the lowest infant mortality rate (along with Norway).

Using direct standardization (10), we applied the U.S. gestational-age specific infant mortality rates to Sweden’s distribution of births by gestational age. If the United States had Sweden’s distribution of births by gestational age, the U.S. infant mortality rate (excluding births at less than 22 weeks of gestation) would go from 5.8 to 3.9 infant deaths per 1,000 live births—a decline of 33%.

US adjusted

In fact, if we use the numbers above, and just the numbers above, the US moves from its current ranking of 30th to a ranking of 12; tied with Germany.  And this does not even include the adjustments that certainly would move many of those countries 1-11 even lower.

And how does the US rank in Preterm Birth Percentage?

Preterm Rate

We rank among the highest in the world.  The ranking that WHO and the CDC and the CIA report are now, perhaps, showing a different story.  They may not be showing a picture of the medical delivery service in America for infants, rather, they may be showing that America delivers far more Preterm babies than the rest of the world.  Or, or, that we REPORT more preterm live births than the rest of the world.  If even one of these two statistics were reported, the US would jump either near the very top or would move up 18 spots on the list.

Non-medical Factors

Lastly, when looking at the IMR as an indicator on the medical delivery, or health care, system, it is equally important to look into factors that contribute to IMR that have nothing to do with that system.  And again, we see that there are such factors:

IMR by Race

It jumps out of the page; black babies dies at a higher rate than any other followed by Hawaiian and Native American.  And why the discrepancy in black women?

the largest difference in rates between the two groups was for preterm birth/low birthweight infants— infants born to Black women had an infant death rate due to preterm birth/low birthweight four times higher than those born to White women.

LBW by race
And why are we seeing black women delivering babies with such low birthrates?  Two possible reasons:

One reason African-American mothers have babies who weigh less at birth is that they are at greater risk for such conditions as high blood pressure and preeclampsia.

And the other:

Also, minority women are subject to stress caused by perceived racial discrimination, the researchers said.

David and Collins spoke with black women who had babies with normal weights at birth, comparing them with black women whose babies’ birth weight was very low — under three pounds.

They asked the mothers if they had ever been treated unfairly because of their race when looking for a job, in an educational setting or in other situations.

Those who felt discriminated against had a twofold increase in low birth weights. And for those who experienced discrimination in three “domains,” the increase was nearly threefold.

In David and Collins’ study of black women who gave birth in two Chicago hospitals, 16 percent said their partner was in jail during the pregnancy.

“We interpreted this finding as another indicator of stress, but one caused by institutional rather than interpersonal racial discrimination,” David said.

Net/net, the United States has work to do.  We have whole groups of people who need to be served.  There are improvements that can be made.  But the raw statistic showing that the United States has such a low IMR is simply not accurate.  And where it is accurate, it can be explained in large part, to conditions that may have nothing to do with medical service delivery.

In fact, the US has reason to shout out to our medical system:

Since 2000, 42 of the world’s 52 surviving babies weighing less than 400g (0.9 lbs.) were born in the United States.

Shocker

Because buying money isn’t any different than buying plywood it is no surprise that banks are going to change the way in which they sell plywood.

On Friday, Rep. Barney Frank, chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, will join FDIC Vice Chairman Marty Gruenberg and others in a discussion of “new, safe and affordable credit options for America’s underbanked.”

The policy discussion on Capitol Hill comes as banks – reacting to new credit card rules imposed by Democrats – start pulling the plastic from current credit-card holders, a move that is sure to lead to even more “underbanked” Americans.

Press reports note that Citibank recently canceled a number of credit card accounts affiliated with the Shell, ExxonMobil, Citgo and Phillips 66-Conoco oil companies.

Citibank also has notified some customers that interest rates on unpaid balances are going up – to a whopping 29.99 percent APR, effective Nov. 30. As the new law requires, customers have been notified that they may reject the change to their accounts, in which case their accounts are closed immediately and they may continue paying off their balances at current rates over five years.

So, when people who have a track record of not paying back their loans no longer have to pay the price of not paying back their loans, banks are going to react by no longer loaning them money they have no hope of paying back, that’s news?

Stop.

But then again, maybe it is.

Dave seems to think that credit card companies are simply soaking the folks that use their cards and imposing new rules will not result in increased fees:

The new rules are likely to reduce some of those profits (that is, to the extent that companies don’t find new “gotcha” fees to replace the old ones). However, the rules are not likely to raise rates or fees for responsible card holders.

But that is not what we are seeing, in fact, it’s the opposite:

On Wednesday, USA Today noted that starting next year, Bank of America will charge a small number of customers an annual fee, ranging from $29 to $99 – an “experimental” move. Even card holders who have never carried a balance or paid late fees could be among those affected, the newspaper said. “You could be spanked for staying out of debt,” the article stated.

So once more, we see government stepping in and regulating where they have no business regulating.  The result?  Predictable.  Higher prices and reduced supply.

Go Obama!

Obama's Numbers

The Democrats are reeling.  Support for the Leftist Congress is plummeting. Voters are ready to fire them with only 2 points to spare and closing fast.  {though if you ask Rasmussen, you get a different picture}.  Governors in two key Democratic states are going to flip.  Support for the health care bill is down and even Obama himself is seeing his numbers plummet.  {again, if you ask Rasmussen you will see a bigger decline}

But the real telling sign is the battle in the blogosphere.  Where once the debate wasn’t so much if the country loved Obama, it was about how many did.  The media was fawning all over the man what with men’s legs shivering in his aura.  Now?  Now the battle isn’t over whether or not CNN is biased, but rather if it’s biased to the left or to the right.

Wanna put into perspective how bad this President is?  His approval rating is lower than Carter’s.

Music.  Sweet music.