Hot Stove League

The Twins traded Carlos Gomez to the Brewers for J.J. Hardy on Friday.  The thinking in the Twins front office is that they were able to move out weak hitting center fielder and bring in a short stop that can hit for power and has a decent average.  Further, Hardy is a fantastic fielder bringing an elite defender to the Twins infield.

This is a good deal.


The Democrats would have us believe the same is true of the trade they made this past Saturday.  What they have passed in the house is a trade of sorts.  The thinking in the minds of the Democrats is that we are able to get rid of a system that costs too much and leaves too many people uninsured.  By passing laws that prohibit insurance companies from denying coverage based on pre-existing conditions they are able to bring in a system that allows for insurance to everyone.  Further, to help bring down costs to those most in need, the plan calls for all Americans to enroll in an approved policy or face a fine.

This is a good deal.

Back to baseball.  I began to look a little deeper into the trade and began to see a couple of things.  By moving Gomez out and brining in Hardy, not only did we trade away a .229 average for a player that hit .283 in 2008.  Further, Brady hit 24 HR to 3 for Gomez.  On top of that, with Gomez out of the lineup the Twins now have room for Delmon Young who has a career average of .290.  Not only are we trading for a player with 57 some odd points to the plus, we are also able to play Young for a full season.

This is turning into a REALLY good deal.

On top of the fact that insurance companies are no longer able to restrict insurance for people with pre-existing conditions the House bill doesn’t raise taxes for a majority of Americans.  Rather, people making $500,000 or more would see a 5.4% increase on their tax bill.  Further, those “Gold Plated” policies would see a tax hike; up to 40%.  But for the average middle class American, the tax bill remains the same.  On top of that, the bill includes language that allows families making up to 400% of the poverty level to receive federal assistance; albeit on a sliding scale.  Last, if you currently receive insurance from your employer, you can continue to do so.  Or, if you don’t, there will be a National Exchange.

This is turning into a REALLY good deal.

As I wrap up my trade analysis, I end up with the unintended consequences.  By trading away Carlos Gomez, the Twins center fielder, the team must now play Denard Span in CF.  And THAT means with Span in center, Delmon Young has to play in left field.  Now, when the Twins had Gomez in CF and Young in LF, they were able to brag the best OF in baseball.  But, with the unintended consequence of Span in center and Young in left, the Twins will now be  start the worst OF in baseball; to the tune of 88 runs to the bad.  That doesn’t even come close to the benefit they gain by adding Hardy to the team.

The unintended consequence of a horrible defense has made this trade:  BAD.

Sadly, the story is much the same for the Democrats and the House bill.  By allowing people to purchase insurance without regard for pre-existing conditions, people are not compelled to purchase insurance while they are healthy; they can be assured that they can buy it when they become sick.  But-but-but, they HAVE to buy a policy or they will pay a fine!  Well, the fine is very very much less than whatever policy I would otherwise buy:

The average cost of an insurance policy with family coverage in 2009 is $13,375. A married couple with a median family income of $75,000 who choose not to insure would be subject to a fine of 2.5 percent of that $75,000, or $1,875. So the family would save a net $11,500 by not insuring.

Hmm, the unintended consequences of horrible incentives has made this trade:  BAD.


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