Monthly Archives: January 2012

Harvard Business Review Proves I Am A Trophy Husband

I make no secret that my wife is bigger, faster, stronger, smarter and more able to survive in the wild than I am.  She is gifted, really and truly, gifted.

I am not.

And a recent stat from the Harvard Business Review reinforces what I have always believed:

I am a trophy husband!

More Older Women Marrying Younger Men

The proportion of male-female partnerships in which the woman is at least five years older than the man increased sharply in the UK and the United States in the 1980s and 1990s: Having remained at about 3% for decades, it rose to 8.3% in 2000 and is likely much higher now, say Melvyn G. Coles and Marco Francesconi of the University of Essex in the UK. Today’s wider career choices give women the opportunity to increase their desirability through financial success, an option that once was limited to males, the researchers say.

My wife is older than I am, sshhhhh, and her success in the world has afforded her the luxury of marrying me!

United States Debt Higher Than United States GDP

Everyone knows that the problem America faces is a spending problem.  We simply are spending more money than we have a hope of bringing in.  Since the end of WWII, the United States has remained steady with tax receipts coming in around 18% of GDP.  More in the good years, less during recessionary periods.  The whole of that time our spending has been a little more.  Not now.  Now our spending has dramatically increased.

The result is a debt to GDP level that is unprecedented:

The nation’s debt has reached a symbolic milestone. With gross domestic product of roughly $15 trillion and total debt of $15.23 trillion, our total debt is now bigger than our economy, as USA Today noted Monday.

What’s more, the Obama administration’s projections put our debt at more than $23 trillion by 2020, well in excess of the projected $22.5 trillion GDP.

Indeed, this is bad news.  But how bad?  Let’s look at other nations in the debt club that we find ourselves in:

Zimbabwe 233.2
Japan 199.7
Saint Kitts and Nevis 185
Greece 142.7
Lebanon 133.8
Iceland 126.3
Jamaica 126.2
Italy 119.1
Singapore 105.8
Barbados 102.1
Belgium 100.7

Not very good company at all.  And it’s only going to get worse.

Some commentators are claiming that we are going to end up like Greece.  Our debt and our #Occupiers seem to indicate that we very well could.

We Are All Collectivists: We Are All Tribal

Human beings are social animals.  We depend on groups, on tribes.  In the modern world that translates into families and villages.  And by village I mean social construct.

In short we care about those around us.  We want those near us to succeed, or, if not succeed, avoid devastating failure.  We may not want to subsidize your food bill, but we’ll rebuild your life:

Henderson, N.C. — A Henderson family that lost its home in a fire one week before Christmas said Sunday that it couldn’t be getting back on its feet without the generous outpouring of support from the Vance County community.

“People we’ve never seen in our life, people we will never meet (were) just giving to us,” said Jessica Morgan.

Donations poured in for the family following the fire, including clothing, money and rent to stay in a nearby mobile home. The biggest donation came from Schewels Furniture, which provided the family with all new furniture, free of charge.

Morgan, her two children and her fiance, Scott Weaver, lost all their belongings Dec. 18 when the Christmas tree in their living room caught fire. Five-year-old Gabriella woke the family up and Weaver helped Morgan escape out a front window with the children.

I’m just begging to explore what this means.  Why a community will rally around a family it’s never met yet, very defiantly, won’t succumb to legislation that might do the same thing.  However, I do know this, the separation exists.  There are many things that we do in our private life that we don’t want legislated.  We don’t want it even though that legislation might be as good intentioned as the charity above.

Fascinating.

Jesus Was A Socialist

I see these from time to time.  Mostly on Facebook, sometimes in comments.  The gist is that Republicans are seen as Christians.  Christians, well, we have our Jesus.  And the theory is that if our Jesus commanded that we take care of the poor and the sick, why are we so against things like Obamacare and Medicaid?

Usually the point is made through a drawing, picture or cartoon:

I’m not so tender and fragile that I don’t find humor in this.  And the point is not lost on me either.  We SHOULD work to make the world better for all of those in it; especially those who are least able to do this for themselves.

That’s where the point kinda ends though.  See, the idea that because Jesus would have us do a thing out of love and goodwill is vastly different that thinking we should create a government mandate to require that same activity.

For example, Jesus also commands us to pray like this:

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed by Thy Name…..

No one seriously feels that we should pass a law that says all of us should pray the Lord’s Prayer.  Additionally, Jesus commands us to:

Go, baptize all the nations.

In a similar manner, no one thinks that we should pass legislation requiring all US citizens go and get baptized.

My reaction to these cute and witty injections is usually to take the  message to heart, laugh, think of my friend on Facebook who posted it that I haven’t seen in 20 years and move on.  Sometimes I need to comment.

Hat Tip: Gette

Voter Fraud: Dead Man Walking

With the wave of Republican victories in the states in 2010 elections, one of the goals has been to tighten Voter ID laws.  Currently there is no requirement to show ID in order to vote.  Republicans are changing that by passing legislation into law that requires some form of state ID in order to vote on election day.

Democrats are crying foul.

The claim from those on the left is that such laws are aimed to diminish the Democrat vote.  The logic, as I understand it, is that the people who don’t have valid state IDs are the poor, minority voters.  And these poor and minority voters typically vote Democrat.

As evidence that these laws are being passed to repress voters is the argument that voter fraud is not common; in fact, it’s very rare.  While I’m willing to accept the fact that voter fraud is not rampant, I have little faith in the methods that measure it.  For example, how are you able to audit such an event?  Ballots are private, anonymous and carry no identifying marker.  I’m not sure of the science behind the data.

In any event, the whole argument smacks of, “We are willing to allow a certain degree of fraud in order to allow more of my voters to vote.”

The whole of the Democrat argument is one of politics.

However, there IS a certain statistic that is easily validated when verifying voter fraud; dead voters.  How surprised was I to see this:

Time and time again the reporters were given ballots.  In some cases they even tried to make the case that they didn’t have ID only to be assured that they didn’t need it.

No fraud indeed.

Hat Tip: Larry Volker

Government Regulations: Costing Jobs

I have long held the position that incentives matter.  Further, I hold that government cannot completely control all reactions to incentives.  That is, when a government body imposes regulations upon a population with the desire to guide correct action, the government body cannot anticipate all reasonable reactions.

Incentives matter.

And so, in an effort to regulate mortgage originators, the government is forcing corporations to leave that segment of the business:

MetLife, the nation’s largest life insurer, announced Tuesday that it would close its home mortgage-origination operation, costing the company at least $90 million. Most of the 4,300 employees at the unit will lose their jobs.

“The majority will no longer have a position,” said John Calagna, a spokesman for MetLife. Most of the workers at the business are based in Irving, Tex., Mr. Calagna said.

MetLife said in October that it was seeking a buyer for its mortgage unit after announcing plans to sell deposit-gathering operations to reduce federal oversight. The company reached a deal last month to sell about $7.5 billion of its bank’s deposits to General Electric.

The Federal Reserve, which oversees MetLife because of its size and banking operations, rejected its plan last year to raise its dividend and resume share buybacks.

Because of the Federal Government and the regulations it imposes, MetLife will now shed 4,300 jobs.

To be clear:  Government regulations cost the economy 4,300 jobs.  No outsourcing.  No downsizing.  No automation.  No nothing.  Pure and simple regulation avoidance.

And for added enjoyment, the NYT article goes on to mention the dollar amount that this will cost MetLife:

MetLife will continue to service current home-loan clients and offer reverse mortgages, the company said. The wind-down may cost as much as $110 million, according to the statement.

In addition to shedding 4,300 jobs, MetLife is WILLINGLY taking an action that will cost it $110 million dollars.  The cost of the regulation is AT LEAST $110 million!  AT LEAST!

Is there any legitimate argument that can be made that this administration is building an environment conducive to business and the free market?

 

 

Romney Wins New Hampshire

There was little doubt that Mitt was going to win New Hampshire.  For some, the size of the win was what mattered.  I, however, never bought into that.  The fact is that Romney is beginning to role.  All the talk of Republicans failing to rally around a candidate is starting to fall away:

In interviews as they left their polling places, New Hampshire voters said the economy was the issue that mattered most to them, and a candidate’s ability to defeat Obama outranked other qualities.

Voters are not happy with Obama, in many cases very unhappy.  And the ability to beat Obama is goal #1.  I happen to resonate with this view.  I happen to think that Newt would make a better President but I think that Romney will present a better opponent to Obama.  Therefore, I have to hope that Romney wins the nomination.  An imperfect Republican is much preferable to a known Obama.

Hands down.

 

Government Mandates: Biofuel Additives

I’m a big believer in markets.  Which is another way of saying that I’m a big believer in incentives.  As the demand for lemonade goes up, the demand for sugar, waters and lemons go up.  As the demand for sugar, water and lemons go up, the price of those items goes up as well.  As the price f sugar, water and lemons go up, so do the price of the finished products that also contain those ingredients.  At this point there will be conflict.  Conflict as the rising price of two or more products compete in the market.  In time, over time, the demand of lemonade will level out as the cost hits a limiting level.

Even more fun is the impact that these higher costs of goods have down stream.  As the price of lemons goes up, farmers increase lemon  production.  They do this by engaging useful farmland into lemon trees.  By doing this, they stop the productive activity they WERE engaging in as they move to higher and higher lemon production.  Say, for example, peaches.  Lemon trees are planted in favor of peach trees and we see the ration of lemons to peaches increase.  This leads to price fluctuations between peaches and lemons.  As these forces are spread through geography and time, the price will reflect the demand of the society on both peaches and lemons.

And this will be natural.  This is what allows most people in a group, even a large group, to get what it wants.  Are there going to be winners?  Sure, there will be people who love lemons and hate peaches and will benefit by the increase production of lemons.  Losers?  You betcha!  Peach lovers but lemon haters may lament the rising prices and availability of peaches.  But on the whole, the demands and wants of the society are served.

Can you image the infrastructure required, the sheer magnitude of size required, if the government wanted to set up an office that measure and dictated the proper allocation of lemon and peach production?  For us in America it is relatively uncommon.  But in Soviet Russia, not so much.  In an effort to make sure the economy was controlled and the people fed, the State dictated means of production.  And no one was fed.

Point.  Sorry.

So, I get frustrated when I see the government mandate something.  Mandate health insurance.  Mandate light bulbs.  Mandate farm subsidies.  All of it.  All of it creates a ripple affect down the line resulting in unwanted consequences.   But I have to admit, when the state mandates a product that doesn’t exist, I am more amused than frustrated:

WASHINGTON — When the companies that supply motor fuel close the books on 2011, they will pay about $6.8 million in penalties to the Treasury because they failed to mix a special type of biofuel into their gasoline and diesel as required by law.

But there was none to be had. Outside a handful of laboratories and workshops, the ingredient, cellulosic biofuel, does not exist.

In 2012, the oil companies expect to pay even higher penalties for failing to blend in the fuel, which is made from wood chips or the inedible parts of plants like corncobs. Refiners were required to blend 6.6 million gallons into gasoline and diesel in 2011 and face a quota of 8.65 million gallons this year.

“It belies logic,” Charles T. Drevna, the president of the National Petrochemicals and Refiners Association, said of the 2011 quota. And raising the quota for 2012 when there is no production makes even less sense, he said.

The government is mandating a product that doesn’t exist.

Classic example of government heavy handedness.

 

#Occupy The Democrat National Convention

What a few month’s time will do.

As the end of 2011 drew near, the Occupy Wall Street movement was in full swing.  Cities across America were host to Occupy camps full of protesters willing to make the case that the greed and corporate influence in America had reached the point that they could influence legislation.  The rich and powerful would be able to craft laws that benefited themselves at the expense of everyone else.

The system was broken.  And it needed to change.

The Democrats, facing an election year of better organized Tea Party grassroots organizations, were only too anxious to look at the Occupy movement as a method to garner support.  Support and sympathy:

“I understand the frustrations being expressed in those protests,” Obama told ABC News senior White House correspondent Jake Tapper…

The President goes on to compare the Occupy movement with the Tea Party, and then expresses the need to reach out to the Occupy protester:

“The most important thing we can do right now is those of us in leadership letting people know that we understand their struggles and we are on their side, and that we want to set up a system in which hard work, responsibility, doing what you’re supposed to do, is rewarded,” Obama said. “And that people who are irresponsible, who are reckless, who don’t feel a sense of obligation to their communities and their companies and their workers that those folks aren’t rewarded.”

Similarly, Nancy Pelosi expressed her approval of the movement like this:

During a press conference Thursday afternoon, House minority leader Nancy Pelosi praised those participating in the “Occupy Wall Street” protests. “God bless them,” Pelosi said, “for their spontaneity. It’s independent … it’s young, it’s spontaneous, and it’s focused. And it’s going to be effective.”

“The message of the protesters is a message for the establishment everyplace,” said the House Democrats’ leader. “No longer will the recklessness of some on Wall Street cause massive joblessness on Main Street.”

To be sure, each side is entitled to its foot soldiers, its partisans.  And they should be expected to pander to ’em all they want.  To think otherwise is rather foolish.  But it’s interesting to see how quickly the shine has wore off:

CHARLOTTE, N.C. — Charlotte, which is hosting this year’s Democratic National Convention, may ban camping on city property, a move that would end an anti-Wall Street demonstration.

The ordinances would essentially end the Occupy Charlotte encampment at the old City Hall, where protesters have had a presence for months.

The Democrats don’t want the Occupy folks at the convention.  At the convention where people will be seen on TV.  Where questions will be asked and answers demanded.  It would appear, for the time being, that the Occupy movement has run its course.

Google 2012 Flu Trend: Here It Comes

A phenomenon of technology, specifically the internet and the searching of it, is that we can report on those searches.  In specific, Google does a great job of this reporting..

As it turns out, the fact that people go to the internet before they go to their doctor turns out to be a very reliable source of disease outbreak.  Feeling a little achy with a slightly elevated fever?  Google it and see what you can do.

And by doing so, you allow Google to track you search and tally it.  The result is Google Flu Trends.  And based on history and current trajectory, the United States is on the precipice of the season’s influenza outbreak:

In fact, we just now entering the worst month of the flu season.  In addition to counting the number of searches, Google is able to track location.  And form that data we can see that the flu is hitting the rust belt the hardest right now with Nevada following suit:

The bad news?  The flu is coming.  The good news?  We know it.