As I mature in my political dialogs, I’m really trying to control the partisan in me and rely more and more on data.
It’s hard to dispute the success of Nate Silver inn 2012.
But THIS is going to make democrats and the left in general go crazy:
Our new forecast goes a half-step further: We think the Republicans are now slight favorites to win at least six seats and capture the chamber. The Democrats’ position has deteriorated somewhat since last summer, with President Obama’s approval ratings down to 42 or 43 percent from an average of about 45 percent before. Furthermore, as compared with 2010 or 2012, the GOP has done a better job of recruiting credible candidates, with some exceptions.
Silver gave Republicans a 60 percent chance of wresting the Senate out of Harry Reid’s hands—a big blow to the final two years of the Obama presidency.
So first, Five Thirty Eight is live!
That is great news. And my excitement is only heightened by reading Silver’s manifesto, specifically relating to journalism vs math:
Conventional news organizations on the whole are lacking in data journalism skills, in my view. Some of this is a matter of self-selection. Students who enter college with the intent to major in journalism or communications have above-average test scores in reading and writing, but below-average scores in mathematics. Furthermore, young people with strong math skills will normally have more alternatives to journalism when they embark upon their careers and may enter other fields.
Ya think? As if the dig on conventional journalism wasn’t bad enough, he goes further and dings journalists in general.
I like this guy.