538 Reason The Left Is Going To Explode

538As I mature in my political dialogs, I’m really trying to control the partisan in me and rely more and more on data.

It’s hard to dispute the success of Nate Silver inn 2012.

But THIS is going to make democrats and the left in general go crazy:

Our new forecast goes a half-step further: We think the Republicans are now slight favorites to win at least six seats and capture the chamber. The Democrats’ position has deteriorated somewhat since last summer, with President Obama’s approval ratings down to 42 or 43 percent from an average of about 45 percent before. Furthermore, as compared with 2010 or 2012, the GOP has done a better job of recruiting credible candidates, with some exceptions.

More:

Silver gave Republicans a 60 percent chance of wresting the Senate out of Harry Reid’s hands—a big blow to the final two years of the Obama presidency.

 

6 responses to “538 Reason The Left Is Going To Explode

  1. “As I mature in my political dialogs, I’m really trying to control the partisan in me…”

    Where’s the fun in that? 😉

  2. Hey pino – long time and all that! I see you, like me, have been posting less frequently that we once did. The allure of the outrage of the day – ignited I think by our competing cable news political channels – has diminished. Visiting around here htis morning it looks like you’re veering a bit away from that too.I’ve gotten awfully busy too, but that’s not the main reason for slowing down.

    That said – must note here that I don’t understand this perception that Nate Silver is of the left. I followed his blog – before it went to NYT – during the ’06 and ’08 elections – for the terrific analysis.

    He always felt to me like just a statistical geek – not a political anything.

    So why the perception? Do you know?

    (and Hi to Vern too!)

    • Hey pino – long time and all that! I see you, like me, have been posting less frequently that we once did. The allure of the outrage of the day – ignited I think by our competing cable news political channels – has diminished. Visiting around here htis morning it looks like you’re veering a bit away from that too.I’ve gotten awfully busy too, but that’s not the main reason for slowing down.

      Hi’ya Moe, yes, been awhile.Yes, I have the usual excuses -reasons- but mostly you describe what I’ve been feeling – I only have so much energy to pour into ‘stuff’ and lately, this political stuff hasn’t made the cut.

      Election time will be fun and then of course the buildup to 2016.

      You good?

      • I’m just fine pino – after I stopped posting multiple times a day and even skipped days at a time, I watched my blog stats drop and drop and drop and for a while felt something like grief about that! But I”m well over that now.

        After all, when I started blogging (probably true of most of us) it was because it was just so much damn fun. But I got to a point where I was trying to compete with myself and it wasn’t fun anymore. I think that’s the main reason I stepped away for a while and now am posting at a slower rate. And it’s fun again.

        Of course, no guarantee that I won’t be infected again. Elections do that, don’t they!

        • I’m just fine pino – after I stopped posting multiple times a day and even skipped days at a time, I watched my blog stats drop and drop and drop and for a while felt something like grief about that!

          Yeah – i lost my stats when I moved off of .wordpress.com and straight to my own site. I worked pretty hard for a long time to no avail.

          After all, when I started blogging (probably true of most of us) it was because it was just so much damn fun. But I got to a point where I was trying to compete with myself and it wasn’t fun anymore. I think that’s the main reason I stepped away for a while and now am posting at a slower rate. And it’s fun again.

          I want the fun back too – so much pressure to keep hits up and then to post more and more often to make sure we were “out there”.

          Ugh.

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