Monthly Archives: November 2012

Obama’s Speech: What He Should Say Novermber 9th, 2012

President Obama to Speak To America

President Obama is set to take the stage in about two and a half hours.  He’s gonna address the nation and discuss the economic conditions we find ourselves in.

What Obama Should Say:

The President should admit that the campaign just finished was brutal and divisive.  Now is the time for us to come together and demonstrate that we are going to work together.  He should take the mantle of leadership and declare that it is his responsibility to bring both sides to an agreement that both can live with.

The time for the rhetoric is over.

Further, Obama should admit that we are in trouble, deep trouble, and that we need to take a long hard look at our priorities.  We can no longer continue to spend the money that we’re spending.  Are their opportunities to increase the revenues coming into the federal coffers?  Yes, yeah there are.  But the true opportunity is to reduce the size of the government while at the same time make it more efficient.

At the same time Obama needs to acknowledge that the consequences of his health care legislation is having dramatic and immediate results.  Full time staff are being reduced to part time.  Others are simply being laid off.  Obama should detail his plans to meet with business leaders, REAL plans to meet with and enact their ideas, to encourage companies to grow and hire.

What Obama Will Say:

Obama is going to take the stage this afternoon and call on republicans, and of course democrats, to compromise.  He is going to reiterate that now is not the time for partisan bickering and party ideology.  There was a time for that and it played out in the recent elections.  Obama is going to claim a mandate and that mandate is that we need to raise taxes on the wealthiest among us that they be sure to pay their fair share.

The President will remark that we are facing an economy that is growing; albeit barely.  And that we cannot risk pushing it into recession due to an unwillingness to compromise.  We need to reduce the deficit and work on balancing the budget.  And to do that, some among us are going to have to sacrifice while expanding programs that create jobs; infrastructure programs, early education programs and green energy that will produce jobs here in America.

The speech will be high on rhetoric, calls for bipartisanship and new beginnings.  But it will be weak on details and substance.  And there will be precious little in terms of the democrat’s willingness to act in a bipartisan manner.

Alternative Minimum Tax

Every single year around April 15th I feel just like the that guy.  The AMT kicks me straight in the jimmy and I just get sick.  And I stay sick for about 3 weeks until I just get numb.

So, I’m thinking.  If the Bush tax cuts are allowed to expire without a “fix”, about 30 million Americans would have to pay that tax:

Get ready to start paying higher taxes—$3,900 to $8,000 more a year on average. Unless Congress acts, some 30 million Americans will have to pay the dreaded Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT), whose rates, depending on your income, are either 26 percent or 28 percent.

If Congress failed to approve a new patch, the permissible amount for married couples filing jointly would fall, for example, from the current $74,450 to $45,000. “A lot more people would start paying a lot more money,” says Andrew Schwartz, founder of Schwartz & Schwartz, P.C., a CPA firm specializing in the tax and financial planning issues applicable to young professionals.

If no new patch were approved, says Barbara Weltman, a tax and business attorney and author of J.K. Lasser’s Tax Deduction for Small Business, 20 million to 30 million taxpayers not previously subject to the AMT would have to pay it.

I say “go for it.”  Look Obama straight in the eye and tell him to go to hell.  And then let him walk over that cliff.   The Pentagon needs to be trimmed, Republican sacred cows have to be slaughtered too, and the spending cuts that were agreed to should be honored.

If 30 million people have to pay an average of $6,000 in additional taxes, you’ll see a MASSIVE move to the fiscal right.

 

Laffer Curve – Who Is John Galt

So, it took, literally, 3 business minutes for our financial planner to e-mail us the morning after the election.  He suggested that we talk, asap, in order to adjust our portfolio.

The call occurred this morning and this is the takeaway:

  • We immediately stopped the auto investment of equities that rely on Capital Gains and Dividends.  The money that was designated for such investments will now be routed to cash
  • Begin the auto investment of purchasing municipal bonds.
  • Develop a plan to determine how much of our cash position should be allocated to those muni’s in a lump sum purchase.
  • Develop a plan to determine how much of our equity position should be sold to protect our risk to the market.
  • Review the household budget and identify the cash flow impact of maxing out 401k contribution.
  • Initiate a tax exposure picture at key levels of income.
  • If our salary  hits a level that triggers negative tax implications strongly consider giving the money away to reduce our taxable income to more favorable conditions.
  • Consider acceleration of retirement.  In essence, negotiate a more work/life balance friendly role at the office in exchange for less money/salary.  Enjoy life more and stress less while maintaining the ties to the corporation until such time as a higher income is better protected.

The advice was jarring.  The analysis was clear, direct and immediate.  The market’s reaction to the election was negative and complete.  Investors all over America were having conversations just like this one.  A massive sell off is underway with people moving money out of equities and into safer tax free vehicles like the bonds mentioned above.

Or just getting the hell out of the equities and sit on the cash.  And wait.

And that wasn’t the most chilling advice, that came in the later recommendations.  The first was somewhat humorous and carried an element of a gut reaction:

If the government is going to take 40% of your property move out of the way of that and just give the money to your favorite charity.

Seriously.  Just give it away.  The thinking is that I’m really only out 60 cents on the dollar and the charity is much more efficient at handling the money than the federal government of the United States.

But it was the third piece that really got me.  The advice was to “Go Galt.”  Negotiate, in essence, a demotion at the office in order to reduce the salary to a more friendly level and have more time to enjoy the things we might be pushing off or rushing through.

Just quit and walk away.

My wife and I hold jobs that are incredibly specialized.  The work we do, the hours we allocate to that work and the degree of competence is exceptional.  In the case of my wife I’m simply reflecting fact and you’ll just have to believe me.  As far as MY level of expertise goes, some of you may have your doubts based on the content and style of this blog; I don’t blame you that discretion.

If we did leave, the jobs wouldn’t be back-filled; they’d be absorbed.  No one would get promoted as a result.  The company would be out our production and expertise and the economy would be out the money we now couldn’t spend because we aren’t earning it anymore.

Now, for the Laffer Curve.

Let’s pretend that I’m right smack dab in the middle of the 28% tax bracket.  If I double the 401k contribution we make I will reduce my tax exposure by $7,929.  That means the government gets $7,929 x 28% = $2,220 LESS than they would have had we not gone and elected this unqualified train wreck of a President.

Not to mention the 28% of the money they lose if I just give it away.  Or the 28% they lose if I take a lower salary.

And if I DO increase my 401k contribution that means I’ll have 8 grand a year less to spend on just random stuff here in North Carolina.  It’ll mean fewer dinners out at my favorite pizza joint.  The BBQ shack down the road?  Out my business.  Ice cream for the kids and coffee at the local coffee joint?  Gone.  Jeans will have to last a few months longer, there will be fewer books paid for and less craft beer from the local beer store that just opened around the corner.

All this on top of the losses they have already incurred as a result of me investing in tax free municipal bonds. [Which, by the way, is how people like Romney get to such a low tax rate – they invest in tax free vehicles.  The nerve, right?]

Any money that Obama THOUGHT he was gonna get as a tax hike has actually resulted in a net LOSS to the coffers of the Federal Government.

But hey, Obama knows better than Romney in things like tax policy and how to increase revenues.

Good job America!

Obama’s Reelection : Rational Reaction

Elections have consequences:

After yesterday’s carnage in the stock market, strategists warned bouncing back wouldn’t be easy. Sure enough, today’s slide is starting to pick up some steam in early afternoon trading.

The Dow recently fell 93 points, or 0.7%, to 12840, which comes one day after the blue-chip index tumbled 312 points — the worst drop of the year — following President Obama’s reelection. Cisco Systems  which reported its first monthly sales drop in nine years — and Home Depot are leading the declines, as lingering worries over the looming fiscal cliff are outweighing better-than-expected labor-market and export data.

The S&P 500 is down 0.9% to 1382 (so much for holding that psychologically important 1400 level). The tech-heavy Nasdaq Comp is off 0.8% at 2913 Apple Inc. shares are down nearly 3%, and have now fallen 22% in less than two months.

“The negative equity trade is building steam,” warns Andrew Brenner, global head of international fixed income at National Alliance. “Bonds are gaining traction as the world is becoming more negative on both Europe and the U.S.”

No one thinks that Obama is going to do a good job.

Open Post To Obama Fans

What would Obama have to do to be considered a success in your eyes?

  • Unemployment below what?
  • GDP growth at what?
  • Deficit at what?
  • Debt at what?

I don’t think Obama has done a damn thing since he took office.  I just wanna know what yardstick you’ll use to judge him.

Pure Class – Liberal Leftist Democrat Fail

Without comment:

Okay, I lied.

Chris Matthews is a horrible example of a human being that is willing to throw the very people he claims to represent under the Obama bus so his team can win.

The Final Bell – Nate Silver Destroys Karl Rove

But I beat Rove too.

I’m calling Florida for Obama.  The state will have to have a recount but I don’t think it matter; Obama wins the state.  That makes Silver 51 out of 51 races correct.  Rove came in at 45 of 51.  Which makes it sound closer than it was.  The two differed on only 6 races and Silver won all 6 of them.

I, however, got 3 of them right; I lost Virginia, Florida and Colorado.  I feel pretty good, I was only VERY wrong on Colorado.  Florida and Virginia were very close.  I did pick the Badger State to flip thinking that Walker would save the day, so I get that one wrong.

Clearly we are going to have to watch 538 going forward.

 

The Slow Decline Of GM

The whole of the rust belt went for Obama.  The auto states have long been democratic strong holds and no matter what happened to GM they likely would have supported Obama.  However, Ohio has a history of swinging and was in play November 5th, 2008.

And Obama knew this.

So, when faced with the dilemma that was the failing corporations, GM and Chrysler, he made the political play to bail the companies out with government money giving a huge gift to his political allies; the auto unions.

After this move, the companies failed anyway and they both went through bankruptcy where Obama continued his assault of reasonableness and simply ignored well established bankruptcy law.  He paid the unsecured creditors first which benefited the very voters he would need later in 2012.

It paid off.

But Romney, back in 2008, wrote an Op Ed for the NY Times where he called for the managed bankruptcy of the two companies , not a bailout.  Here’s what he said:

IF General Motors, Ford and Chrysler get the bailout that their chief executives asked for yesterday, you can kiss the American automotive industry goodbye. It won’t go overnight, but its demise will be virtually guaranteed.

Without that bailout, Detroit will need to drastically restructure itself. With it, the automakers will stay the course — the suicidal course of declining market shares, insurmountable labor and retiree burdens, technology atrophy, product inferiority and never-ending job losses. Detroit needs a turnaround, not a check.

Fast forward to today:

(Reuters) – Ford Motor Co, which clung to the road with a timely swerve before the 2009 crisis that bankrupted General Motors Co, may now be pulling a similar stunt in Europe.

The Dearborn, Michigan-based automaker is scrapping three European plants and thousands of jobs while its rival appears to be stuck on the starting grid. The speed of Ford’s restructuring plan – and the comparatively slow pace of GM’s – has become more important during a protracted slump in Europe’s auto market, with sales down another 7.2 percent so far this year.

Both companies unveiled hefty third-quarter losses in the region and warned they could lose a combined $6 billion or more in Europe in 2012-13.

The bad news weighs heavily on GM’s troubled Opel unit, which has lost billions of dollars over the past decade, has a long history of ill will with its labor unions, has seen its products and brand image pummeled in the media and has shown the door to all but a handful of its top executives.

More than anything, however, the cost of making cars is simply too high, with too many workers still on the payroll given sagging demand in most of western Europe.

Ford, quick and nimble – able to respond to changing needs – is outpacing the “saved” company that Obama “saved.”

Ford adjust.  GM didn’t.  And they’re paying.

By 2009, the company was solid enough to stay afloat as GM took a government bailout and Chrysler was sold to Fiat – both through Chapter 11 bankruptcy proceedings.

Beyond the disposals, Ford seeks more gains by building future cars and trucks from just five basic platforms, compared with nine distinct vehicle architectures currently deployed.

The push to consolidate underlying technologies – led by rivals VW and Hyundai – is already lifting earnings at home. Ford’s North American operating profit amounted to 12 percent of third-quarter sales, pulling further ahead of GM’s 7.8 percent margin.

“We track how we’re performing versus Ford very closely and we’ve got a good understanding of the gap,” GM’s U.S. finance chief Chuck Stephens told reporters and analysts this week. “Obviously it’s widened thus far this year. Ford is about two years ahead of us (in) getting scale on global architectures.”

Ford’s lead over GM is closer to four years in the European restructuring stakes. And even then, Bochum’s 2017 closure should not be taken for granted, some observers warn.

Ouch.

 

Ohio To Obama – President is Re-Elected

Congratulations President.

For those of us who love Liberty, we have more work to do.

Update – 11:00

The only good -GREAT- news is that my state flipped from Obama to Romney.  I feel a fantastic sense of accomplishment even if I only moved a few people.

The news is getting worse for Romney, however.  It look like Florida is moving towards Obama though there will be a recount.  And Ohio has stopped closing; Ohio is going to go Obama.

Fun stuff even if it’s bad news for Republicans.