Time for some status. All the big primaries are over and we know who is running against who.
First, the Retiring Democrats:
| State | Status | Democrat | Republican | Incumbent | Front Runner | Spread |
| CT | Ret. Dem | Blumenthal | McMahon | Democrat | Democrat | 7.5 |
| DE | Ret. Dem | Coons | O’Donnell | Democrat | Democrat | 15 |
| IL | Ret. Dem | Giannoulias | Kirk | Democrat | Republican | 1 |
| IN | Ret. Dem | Ellsworth | Coats | Democrat | Republican | 16 |
| ND | Ret. Dem | Heitkamp | Hoeven | Democrat | Republican | 27 |
I think we lost Delaware. And that’s okay. We weren’t going to take the Senate and this sent a message to the Republican establishment; Come big or Stay Home.
From my count, we moved from taking 4 to only taking 3.
The next group is the retiring Republicans. The only news of note is that Florida is steadily moving away from I-Crist to R-Rubio. One for the good guys:
| State | Status | Democrat | Republican | Incumbent | Front Runner | Spread |
| FL | Ret. Rep | Crist | Rubio | Republican | Republican | 10 |
| KS | Ret. Rep | Republican | Republican | |||
| KY | Ret. Rep | Conway | Paul | Republican | Republican | 7 |
| MO | Ret. Rep | Carnahan | Blunt | Republican | Republican | 5.5 |
| NH | Ret. Rep | Hodes | Ayotte | Republican | Republican | 6.4 |
| OH | Ret. Rep | Fisher | Portman | Republican | Republican | 13.3 |
We lose 0.
The biggie. This is the one that counts; Term Limited Democrats. In my mind, we move from taking 4 to taking 5. Ohio went our way.
| State | Status | Democrat | Republican | Incumbent | Front Runner | Spread |
| AR | Term Dem | Lincoln | Boozman | Democrat | Republican | 25 |
| CA | Term Dem | Boxer | Fiorina | Democrat | Democrat | 5.5 |
| CO | Term Dem | Bennet | Buck | Democrat | Republican | 2.4 |
| HI | Term Dem | Democrat | Democrat | |||
| MD | Term Dem | Democrat | Democrat | |||
| NV | Term Dem | Reid | Angle | Democrat | Democrat | 0.5 |
| NY | Term Dem | Gillibrand | Blakeman | Democrat | Democrat | 6 |
| NY | Term Dem | Democrat | Democrat | |||
| OR | Term Dem | Wyden | Huffman | Democrat | Democrat | 16 |
| PA | Term Dem | Sestak | Toomey | Democrat | Republican | 6.8 |
| VE | Term Dem | Democrat | Democrat | |||
| WA | Term Dem | Murray | Rossi | Democrat | Democrat | 6.2 |
| WI | Term Dem | Feingold | Johnson | Democrat | Republican | 8 |
Now, I admit, I AM ASSUMING that we win one of the three: New York, California or Nevada. BIG assumption. But that’s 5 to the good.
And the Term Limited Republicans? The news is so good I’m not even going to post it! We lose 0. Not even close.
That means I have the Republicans picking up 8 in the Senate. That moves us from 59-41 to 51-49.
You’ve forgotten WV, where I think Raese will defeat Manchin.