Dewey Defeats Truman: Obama Style

In 1948 the Chicago Tribune printed a headline announcing that Dewey had defeated Truman.  History shows, of course, that Truman was victorious.  I resonate with this feeling as we enter the final stretches of the 2012 election.  And to rely even more on historical anecdote, I’ll cal upon the old Nixon rag, “I can’t believe he won.  No one I know voted for him.”

This is where I find myself now.  I’m surrounded by everyone that thinks Obama will win.   But I know only a few people who will vote for him.

Will Obama Win The Election

Everyone I know feels that Obama is going to win the election this fall.  This includes the folks I talk to that are Obama supporters as well as those who are Romney supporters.  Obama is going to win.

But.

Very few people I know are going to vote for Obama.  And this includes a significant number of people who voted for the President last election.

Who Will Win The States

Obviously the election will come down to individual states and who will win the electoral votes.  And that’s where it gets interesting.  National polls showing such and such ahead are fun but in the end, not very useful.  A more accurate view of who is going to win comes down to who wins each state.

And it i s possible to predict who wins each state:

A University of Colorado analysis of state-by-state factors leading to the Electoral College selection of every U.S. president since 1980 forecasts that the 2012 winner will be Mitt Romney.

The key is the economy, say political science professors Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder and Michael Berry of CU Denver. Their prediction model stresses economic data from the 50 states and the District of Columbia, including both state and national unemployment figures as well as changes in real per capita income, among other factors.

“Based on our forecasting model, it becomes clear that the president is in electoral trouble,” said Bickers, also director of the CU in DC Internship Program.

Based on the individual state economies, Obama loses to Romney.  Obama isn’t able to overcome the unemployment levels that have dominated the experience of voters in states all over the nation.

Will Obama win?  I continue to think so.  However, “no one I know is going to vote for him.”

 

17 responses to “Dewey Defeats Truman: Obama Style

  1. Romney actually just narrowed the gap in one of the latest tracking polls that came out today. It’s now 46/47 in Obama’s favor.

    This election is closer than many think. That said, the Democrats are waging a superior psyops campaign by convincing most people of the inevitability of his victory.

    • Which poll? I find it hard to believe that Romney is gaining ground after two horrible weeks of campaigning. If you say Rasmussen, I’m not even going to bother responding.

  2. Reuters and NBC/WSJ have it as a 5% race, Gallup 1% and Rasmussen has Romney in the lead. Obama seems to be pulling ahead in places like Virginia and Pennsylvania, which makes it tough for Romney. Romney has a lot of Super-Pac money ready to pour into ads during the last six weeks, which could impact the election. So it is close and Romney is still in it. I think in the next week we’ll see if the video release does significant harm to Romney. If it does, it could also lead to down ticket damage to the GOP. If it doesn’t then we’re in for a squeaker. It’s too early to say Obama wins. Most models do point to Obama (even if at least one points to Romney), but at this point too much is unknown. I think Romney’s campaign has been a disaster – if he wins it will be because of the economy and inspite of his campaign. But if he can finish strong, he still has a shot.

    • Reuters and NBC/WSJ have it as a 5% race, Gallup 1% and Rasmussen has Romney in the lead.

      I agree; polls have this race closer than I would have guessed.

  3. Pino,

    If you want to see a great site that does a state-by-state analysis, look at http://electoral-vote.com/. They’ve got a great interface, updated daily, with lots of data.

    Looking at the national popular vote is stupid, and the media always does it because they need a narrative about who is “winning.” Doing the electoral tracking is far more useful, you’re right, but I have a hard time dismissing the EV.com model: take the polling in each state, come up with a winner in the state, and then award the EVs for that state. While the CU model you’re pointing to comes to a different conclusion, it’s just a model based on other factors. A particularly unpopular candidate would cause the outcome to deviate from the model, as would any other sui generis situation. Electoral-vote.com, meanwhile, would capture that sentiment because the polling would show it.

    I’m not dismissing the CU study entirely, it’s another piece of evidence to examine. But it is an outlier right now, and I’m not convinced yet.

    • I’m not dismissing the CU study entirely, it’s another piece of evidence to examine. But it is an outlier right now, and I’m not convinced yet.

      I’ll take a look at that site you listed. But yes, this Colorado poll is not reporting anything at that has been suggested by anyone. All I know is that people all around me think that Obama will win but aren’t going to vote for him.

  4. Realclearpolitics keeps pretty good track of the daily national/state polls http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/elections/

    If Romney gets the unforced errors under control, I expect this to be closer than Obama-McCain. No matter where any of us live, who we work with and are friends with, we’re probably not in touch with a representative group of voters, so I would hesitate to read too much into the anecdotal stuff from people you know.

    • No matter where any of us live, who we work with and are friends with, we’re probably not in touch with a representative group of voters, so I would hesitate to read too much into the anecdotal stuff from people you know.

      Oh, for sure. I’m a white, married, professional Christian. Almost all of my friends are in that demographic which is clearly a slice of America.

      But more of my peer group voted Obama last time.

  5. For fun I’m keeping track of the polls on my blog and giving my own brief analysis, updating frequently: http://scotterb.wordpress.com/2012-polls/

    Most of what I put there I get from the real clear politics page, which is updated frequently. I also put Reuters there, and have started putting RAND, which RCP doesn’t report. I’m doing this mainly for myself – I want to have a record of the polls during the race, in part to look at what ones better predicted the final result earlier in the campaign. I tend to think Rasmussen alters its likely voter model closer to the election in a way that gives it a more accurate final tally, while during the campaign uses one more friendly to Republicans.

    I’m also intrigued by the two polling worlds. PEW, an excellent polling outfit with thorough methodology and over 2000 likely voters shows Obama with an 8 point lead. Many other pollsters have shown five or six points. Then you have the Tracking polls and a few others calling it a tight race. Both can’t be right. Yet neither is an outlier, there are sets of polls showing both “worlds.”

  6. Case in point: Iowa. Today Rasmussen put Romney up by 3, while NBC/WSJ/Marist had Obama up by 8. Those are two very different polls!

  7. Polls are funny things. October 26, 1980 : Carter 47 Reagan 39 Gallup Pole. I wish I could remember how that one turned out .

  8. Looks like Tarheel state may be staying blue in 2012. Even a republican polling organization is showing Obama in the lead http://www.nccivitas.org/2012/civitas-poll-obama-biden-lead-gop-ticket

    • Looks like Tarheel state may be staying blue in 2012. Even a republican polling organization is showing Obama in the lead

      Obama is staying strong. I don’t think he’s making a case, but he certainly is gaining momentum.

  9. Polls seem to be predicting a close race, most within the range of statistical error. Though at the ballot box, people have a tendency to relapse back into old voting patterns. Like the old idiom goes, the only poll that matters is Election Day. Romney will have to deeply convince many 2008 Obama voters that he isn’t the best option this time around to have a chance. Incumbancy has its advantages, as history demonstrates.

    From what little of the American media I have seen, everyone seems to be focusing on what an alleged ‘disaster’ Mitt’s campaign has been right now, though this seems to be more a manufactured media sensation as opposed to an objective fact. Though considering the bread-and-circuses nature of an American Presidential Election, this really should not be surprising.

    • Romney will have to deeply convince many 2008 Obama voters that he isn’t the best option this time around to have a chance.

      I think it comes down to the fact that many people like Obama the man but don’t think he’s doing a good job. They don’t wanna fire their brother-in-law.

      everyone seems to be focusing on what an alleged ‘disaster’ Mitt’s campaign has been right now, though this seems to be more a manufactured media sensation as opposed to an objective fact.

      I agree.

      Romney’s two “gaffes” have been positives to me. The 47% comment is right on and Obama DID jack up the Libya thing. His handling of that whole situation has been a joke.

  10. Pingback: Colorado Boys | The Rio Norte Line

  11. I just reblogged this at the RNL. I apologise in advance for giving it a hawter title. 😉

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