Tag Archives: ACE

Tropical Storms: Strength and Frequency


Am currently having a conversation regarding the positions of our political candidates hold.  For example, Ben Carson questions evolution – a nuanced debate not meant for this post – and I countered that there are real live breathing human beings that believe tropical storms are increasing both in number and in strength.  The constraints of social media being what they are I am going to make my case here and then post there.

First, the question of frequency.  From the scientists:


Above is the frequency of All Hurricanes [top line] and then Major Hurricanes [bottom line].  It’s clear that the frequency of all hurricanes has been on a downward slope since 1997 or so.  And before that they were steady going back to 1986’ish.  While it’s true that the frequency did rise from the period 1973 through 1987, those years represented a diminished number from the recent high seen in 1971 or 1972.  And major hurricanes?  They too have seen a reduction in number from 2002 to present day.

As for force:


We’re near recent lows.  As recently as 2010 through 2013 we’ve been lower than any time since 1975.  True, there are high peaks as recent as 2006, but the most recent decadal trend is down.

Finally data on the frequency not just of hurricanes but  of all tropical storms:


Here any sense of trend vanishes – or rather, the trend is one of remarkable consistency.

In conclusion – there is absolutely no evidence to sustain the concept that tropical storms are increasing in numbers or power.

2015 Hurricane Season


President Obama has said that global warming is a threat:

“No challenge  poses a greater threat to future generations than climate change,” said Obama in his State of the Union speech Tuesday.


So what do we have to worry about as the tropical storm season quickly approaches North Carolina?  After all, global warming causes bigger and more powerful storms:

The hard truth is carbon pollution has built up in our atmosphere for decades now.  And even if we Americans do our part, the planet will slowly keep warming for some time to come.  The seas will slowly keep rising and storms will get more severe, based on the science.

Well, the predictions are in:

— The 2015 Atlantic hurricane season will be significantly less active than average, researchers at North Carolina State University said Monday.

Lian Xie, a professor of marine, earth and atmospheric sciences at N.C. State, forecasts four to six named storms forming in the Atlantic basin, which includes the Atlantic Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea. The average number of named storms since 1950 has been about 11.

Of the 2015 named storms, one to three may grow strong enough to become hurricanes, and only one may become a major hurricane, Xie said.

Not exactly consistent with the good president’s words.

Ahh, but…Mr. Obama used the phrase ‘based on science’.  What has the science been on the power of storms recently?

ACE.2015.04Down.  Way down.

Hurricane Season 2011: August, September October

The hurricane season is near over.  Once Irene hit, I was kinda focused on the damage it did to North Carolina and then I, well, I kinda forgot about the season.  Didn’t seem to be any more storms.  Then I saw that Mexico is going to be hit and I remembered I haven’t posted an update for quite some time.

So, where were we?

The predictions for 2011 are:

  • Tropical Storms: 18
  • Hurricanes: 6-10
  • Major Storms: 3-6

Though August and September we are at:

  • Tropical Storms – 12
  • Hurricanes – 4
  • Major Hurricanes – 2

With November right around the corner, it’s looking like we’re gonna hit the lower end of the predictions this year.  Further, the National Hurricane Center is reporting that the accumulated cyclone activity. ACE, is right on track.

Another good year for the guessers.



Hurricane Irene and Global Warming

Even though hurricanes often hit those places in the country where people are concerned about “guns and Bibles” I knew that the media would be quick to jump on Irene as an indication that we are experiencing Global Warming.  The fact that t hit the North East only assured that this mem would come all the sooner.

I wasn’t disappointed:

The scale of Hurricane Irene, which could cause more extensive damage along the Eastern Seaboard than any storm in decades, is reviving an old question: are hurricanes getting worse because of human-induced climate change?

“On a longer time scale, I think — but not all of my colleagues agree — that the evidence for a connection between Atlantic hurricanes and global climate change is fairly compelling,” said Kerry Emanuel, an expert on the issue at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

So says the New York Times.  Or, rather, so the New York Times says that Mr. Emanuel says.

Any more?

Among those who disagree is Thomas R. Knutson, a federal researcher at the government’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton, N.J. The rising trend of recent decades occurred over too short a period to be sure it was not a consequence of natural variability, he said, and statistics from earlier years are not reliable enough to draw firm conclusions about any long-term trend in hurricane intensities.

“Everyone sort of agrees on this short-term trend, but then the agreement starts to break down when you go back longer-term,” Mr. Knutson said. He argues, essentially, that Dr. Emanuel’s conclusion is premature, though he adds that evidence for a human impact on hurricanes could eventually be established.

While scientists from both camps tend to think hurricanes are likely to intensify, they do not have great confidence in their ability to project the magnitude of that increase.

One climate-change projection, prepared by Mr. Knutson’s group, is that the annual number of the most intense storms will double over the course of the 21st century. But what proportion of those would actually hit land is another murky issue. Scientists say climate change could alter steering currents or other traits of the atmosphere that influence hurricane behavior.

So.  There ya have it.

We agree that global warming is real, that it increases storms and their intensity, but….BUT we disagree on where those storms may go.  Why do we disagree?  Well, because, naturally, we disagree because of global warming.

Oh how I wish I majored in English and wanted to write novels:

Gore enrolled in Harvard College in 1965, initially planning to major in English and write novels, but later deciding to major in government.  On his second day on campus, he began campaigning for the freshman student government council, and was elected its president.

Although he was an avid reader who fell in love with scientific and mathematical theories,he did not do well in science classes in college, and avoided taking math.   His grades during his first two years put him in the lower one-fifth of the class. During his sophomore year, he reportedly spent much of his time watching television, shooting pool, and occasionally smoking marijuana.

Ahhh…the joys of Harvard education!

So, what do scientist say?  Ya know, scientist who actually study science and stuff?  Oh, AND study climate science?

Tropical cyclone accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) has exhibited strikingly large global interannual variability during the past 40-years. In the pentad since 2006, Northern Hemisphere and global tropical cyclone ACE has decreased dramatically to the lowest levels since the late 1970s. Additionally, the frequency of tropical cyclones has reached a historical low.

So.  There ya go.  The short term trend is showing s decrease in ACE; or storm strength.  The Times reports an increase, as if it’s fact, and then Al Gore announces anyone disagreeing with that statement is a racist.

Sounds about right.

Make up a fact, report it in the Times and then let a raging Leftist report that anyone who disagrees must be racist.  Then, don’t report it.

By the way, for further evidence that tropical storm activity is just CRAZY increasing, see this chart:

Scary isn’t it?  The way that storms are increasing isn’t it?


Global Warming: Storm Intensity

As we transition from Global Warming into climate change, we continue to debate the science.

We point to historical levels of CO2 and the temperature at the time. We can look at the rise in the concentration of CO2 in recent years and watch as recent temperatures soar.

But can we use the data that we think we have and make a prediction that turns out to be accurate?

Time thought it did.  I think they’re wrong.

Continue reading

Hurricane Season

It’s time.  Time for that annual prediction made by predictors.  And what they’re trying to predict is the hurricane season.  And to be honest, I feel sorry for ’em.

Continue reading