Presidential Approval: NY Times/CBS News Poll

He’s tryin’.

The President is coming into the election against a head wind.  Unemployment is high, his signature legislative win is unpopular, and getting more so, and he’s facing some stiff foreign relationship issues.

He’s up against it pretty tough.  The relevant conversations of the day aren’t going his way.  So, I don’t blame him for trying to change the national dialogue.  For trying to pivot from issues he can’t manage well to issue that have proven to be traditional democrat strong suits.

I get the contraception pivot.

But it ain’t working.

The numbers, already bad for a sitting  President, are getting worse:

 At a time of rising gas prices, heightened talk of war with Iran and setbacks in Afghanistan, Mr. Obama’s approval rating dropped substantially in recent weeks, the poll found, with 41 percent of respondents expressing approval of the job he is doing and 47 percent saying they disapprove

Most of the country is smart enough to get it.  Most of us know that what really matters are the things mentioned above; the economy, the wars and our standing in the world.

But Obama is also worried about a second term.  And this is why he’s pandering to his traditional base, in this case women.  But even that isn’t working as well as he wants:

In the head-to-head matchups, Mr. Obama also maintained much of the advantage he had built in the last year among important constituencies, including women, although he lost some support among women over the past month, even as the debate raged over birth control insurance coverage.

Even among women he’s losing ground.  Still ahead to be sure, but he’s losing ’em.  Which, if you think about it, makes sense.  While all women I know feel strongly about women’s rights and their own health, very few of them disagree with the fact that a church or an employer should be forced to provide the services Obama wants to mandate.  Further, they ALL know the difference between medicine that cures cysts and medicine that simply prevents pregnancies.  No one thinks that we should be on the hook for casual sex.

Mr. Obama is going to have to handle the foreign issues well, not something I’m sure he’s capable of.  He did demonstrate skill in Libya, so perhaps I’m off base, but I don’t feel overly comfortable that he’ll be able to manage the coming crisis between Iran and Israel.

 

 

7 responses to “Presidential Approval: NY Times/CBS News Poll

  1. To be sure, that poll is an outlier. Rasmussen has it at 49%, every other recent poll is 46% and higher, and overall he’s trending higher than a month ago. In social science we tend to throw out outliers, especially when there are six or seven others. To be sure, Obama is faring pretty good in both state polls and national polls when put up against GOP candidates. And if jobs keep growing, well, I think you’ll have four more years to complain about Obama 😉

    • To be sure, that poll is an outlier.

      From the article:

      Sharp as the drop in Mr. Obama’s approval rating was in the Times/CBS News poll, it was not in isolation. The latest ABC News/Washington Post poll, released on Monday, also reported a drop in Mr. Obama’s overall approval rating, to 46 percent from 50 percent last month. The latest tracking poll from Gallup, also released Monday, showed Mr. Obama with an approval rating of 49 percent.

      And if jobs keep growing, well, I think you’ll have four more years to complain about Obama

      Ugh!

      • Rasmussen has Obama at 50% today, overall Obama’s been trending higher. But you’re right that there is a long time. I think this feels a bit like 1984 — Reagan was seen as DOA in late 1983, but an economic recovery and the mood improved. And Romney reminds me a bit of Mondale.

  2. Yeah, not ready to call this a trend yet either. And I think the GOP has done itself another disservice by spending the last month focused on abortion and especially birth control. Then again, it’s their bread & butter issue now that the economy is on the upswing.

    • Yeah, not ready to call this a trend yet either.

      Yup. It’s an early bunch of polls that are showing data not supported in a lot of other places. It’s bizarro that the Times show Obama down and Rasmussen show him up.

      Not to mention that we have forever left. Remember, Obama didn’t defeat Clinton until June in 08.

      the GOP has done itself another disservice by spending the last month focused on abortion and especially birth control.

      Abortion is a loser to be sure. People just hate talking about it. And hearing about.

      Contraception? Granted, my world is full of people like me. But in the office I work in women really think that while it should be widely available, they don’t think other people should pay for it.

  3. Pino ,

    As much as I love to compare Barak Obama to Jimmy Carter there is an eerie similarity to George Bush the Elder. Certainly not in the way he governed or his character. More in his political situation . Bush the Elder had a great military triumph in the first Gulf War . President Obama had a great military moment in the death of Bin Laden . Both had an economy recovering from recession . In both cases the slowness of the recoveries hurt their reelection . America tires of it’s leadership regularly . We like to throw the bums out . In Bush’s case, he was really the third Reagan term. In Obama’s case the country is sick of him after only 3 years.

    In both instances the successor gets to look really good .

    • As much as I love to compare Barak Obama to Jimmy Carter there is an eerie similarity to George Bush the Elder. Certainly not in the way he governed or his character. More in his political situation . Bush the Elder had a great military triumph in the first Gulf War . President Obama had a great military moment in the death of Bin Laden . Both had an economy recovering from recession .

      Great point!

      More even than Bin Laden is Libya.

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