Tag Archives: Skeptic

Climate Modeling vs Climate Reality

Climate Model Predictions

The next time you are faced with a Global Warming Alarmist – dare I say I repeat myself- you may ask them if they have evidence that would suggest their models are accurately reflecting reality.

The chart above from Dr. Roy Spencer via CoyoteBlog suggests that the models are off.

As Coyote mentions:

The warming from manmade CO2 without positive feedbacks would be about 1.3C per doubling of CO2 concentrations, a fraction of the 3-10C predicted by these climate models.  If the climate, like most other long-term stable natural systems, is dominated by negative feedbacks, the sensitivity would be likely less than 1C.  Either way, the resulting predicted warming from manmade CO2 over the rest of this century would likely be less than 1 degree C.

Don’t fall for the trap the Left will try to spring on you – namely accusing you of denying climate change.  Certainly the climate is changing.  And certainly:

  1. Green house gases cause warming that might not otherwise have taken place
  2. CO2 is a green house gas
  3. Man has added to the levels of CO2 in the atmosphere
  4. It is reasonable to assume that man has warmed the earth to a level that it might not otherwise have been at

It’s not global warming that I deny, it’s the Alarmist nature of the disciples of the religion that I disagree with.

Introductions And Climate Change

Global Warming.Polar Bear

I have found a great new liberal voice, writer and thinker.  Further, he’s local.  Professor Steve Greene is a Political Science prof here at NC State University.  I firmly believe that the boys at PYM and the good Professor Scott Erb will find Steve’s insights, hopefully here, and at his own place, to be interesting and enjoyable.

I hope to see Steve here often.  Even if he’s wrong 😉

Anyway, while over at Steve’s place I saw one of his posts on climate change.  In it, I was reminded of a story that I’ve had in my stack for some time now.

Which is that global warming has stopped over the last 10-15 years:

OVER the past 15 years air temperatures at the Earth’s surface have been flat while greenhouse-gas emissions have continued to soar. The world added roughly 100 billion tonnes of carbon to the atmosphere between 2000 and 2010. That is about a quarter of all the CO₂ put there by humanity since 1750. And yet, as James Hansen, the head of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, observes, “the five-year mean global temperature has been flat for a decade.”

Temperatures fluctuate over short periods, but this lack of new warming is a surprise. Ed Hawkins, of the University of Reading, in Britain, points out that surface temperatures since 2005 are already at the low end of the range of projections derived from 20 climate models (see chart 1). If they remain flat, they will fall outside the models’ range within a few years.

Economist.climate change.1

I think it’s important to point out that this gets to the skeptic’s whole point.  That while the science that suggests higher levels of CO2 contribute to a warming planet, the positive feedback that is central to the alarmist’s argument is not at all understood or accepted.

The mismatch might mean that—for some unexplained reason—there has been a temporary lag between more carbon dioxide and higher temperatures in 2000-10. Or it might be that the 1990s, when temperatures were rising fast, was the anomalous period. Or, as an increasing body of research is suggesting, it may be that the climate is responding to higher concentrations of carbon dioxide in ways that had not been properly understood before. This possibility, if true, could have profound significance both for climate science and for environmental and social policy.

I think that the jury is still out.  I don’t see indications of a catastrophic change that has or is going to occur.  Until then, I think that we need to continue to watch, to observe and accept the fact that perhaps humans only have so much influence on the climate of Mother Earth.


I Made A Mistake

In the debate on global warming and it’s impact on climate change, the left has successfully framed the position such that you are either a believer in catastrophic climate change that requires dramatic and immediate economic damage in order to save the world from literal existence or you are a denier who believes man walked with the dinosaur.

I happen to take the very real and legitimate position that :

  1. CO2 is a green house gas.
  2. Green house gases cause temperatures to rise.
  3. Man contributes to an increase in CO2.
  4. The world is warmer than it might otherwise be.

I do NOT ascribe to the belief in the positive feedback models that are necessary to create the catastrophe that the alarmists envision.

And now there is one more of me in the world.

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Outliers Versus Trends: Tornadoes And Global Warming

We are seeing tornadoes across America.

And by the looks of things, it would seem the year is bad.  Really REALLY bad.

But is it?

Well, the guys over at Poison Your Mind seem to think so:

We can’t link any individual event to global warming, but it’s a large-scale pattern that may be increasing the frequency or severity of types of events.

Nickgb creates some very compelling points in his post, I highly recommend reading all of it.  And when you’re done, stop on back and see my critique.

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