Tag Archives: National Hurricane Center

Hurricane Season 2011: August, September October

The hurricane season is near over.  Once Irene hit, I was kinda focused on the damage it did to North Carolina and then I, well, I kinda forgot about the season.  Didn’t seem to be any more storms.  Then I saw that Mexico is going to be hit and I remembered I haven’t posted an update for quite some time.

So, where were we?

The predictions for 2011 are:

  • Tropical Storms: 18
  • Hurricanes: 6-10
  • Major Storms: 3-6

Though August and September we are at:

  • Tropical Storms – 12
  • Hurricanes – 4
  • Major Hurricanes – 2

With November right around the corner, it’s looking like we’re gonna hit the lower end of the predictions this year.  Further, the National Hurricane Center is reporting that the accumulated cyclone activity. ACE, is right on track.

Another good year for the guessers.



Hurricane Season 2011: July Review

I’m a little late on this post, but, on the other hand, there hasn’t been a lot to write about concerning this topic.  True to form, the Atlantic hurricane season has begun slow.  For the few years that I’ve been following this, it’s par for the course.  Start slow and then really gear down as the season moves into “adulthood”.

So, where are we?

The predictions for 2011 are:

  • Tropical Storms: 18
  • Hurricanes: 6-10
  • Major Storms: 3-6

And we are at:

  • Tropical Storms: 4
    • Arlene: June
    • Bret: July
    • Cindy: July
    • Don: July
  • Hurricanes: 0
  • Major Storms: 0

In short, for the whole of July, we are just 3 more tropical storms further along than we were in June.

And through July of 2010?

  • Tropical Storms: 2
  • Hurricanes: 1
  • Major Storms: 0

So far, 2011 is a little more active than 2010, but only if you count named storms and not hurricanes.

Hurricane Season 2011: June Review

We’re one month into the hurricane season here on the Atlantic side of the continent.  While the season begins in June, the storms really don’t start spawning until later in the summer.  I’m not a climatologist. not that that stops OTHER people -ahem Gore ahem- from pretending, but I suspect the reason the season starts out so slow is that the oceans need to heat up.  Again, I don’t know…

Earlier this year the National Hurricane Center made some predictions.  Last year as the season wore on I thought that maybe the storms would be equally distributed.  However, as I mentioned above, they aren’t.  So, the advantage we’ll have this year is that we can keep track of the season as it progresses and we can compare to the season last year.

So, where are we?  Let’s check:

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Hurricane Season 2010: Season Over

Okay, not too bad.  The season seemed busy; lot’s of storms.

But nothing news worthy.  We avoided the big one.

Let’s check the box score.

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Hurricane Update: September Review


We had more named storms in September than we had all year up to that point.

For those of you keeping track at home we’re at:

  • Named Storms – 14
  • Hurricanes – 7
  • Major Hurricanes – 5

The prediction for the year was most recently updated to:

  • 14 – 20 Named Storms
  • 8 – 12 Hurricanes
  • 4 – 6 Major Hurricanes

By the end of September the prediction called for:

  • 5 – 7 Named Storms
  • 3 – 4 Hurricanes
  • 2 – 3 Major Hurricanes

We are virtually at the full year’s predictions with all of October and November left.

Looks like they were right and I was wrong.

Hurricane Season: Update

Wowie wow wow!

Here comes the storms.

Igor went from baby to monster just like that.  And behind him is tropical storm Julia.

That puts us at:

  • Named storms – 10
  • Hurricanes – 4
  • Major Hurricanes – 3
  • Landfall – 0

Right about now, we should have expected to see 7-10 named storms with 4-6 hurricanes.

Right on track.

Hurricane Update: September 9

Say good morning to Tropical Storm Igor.  He formed off the coast of Africa and is very VERY far from the US mainland.

However, for those keeping score, this puts us at:

  • 9 named storms
  • 3 Hurricanes
  • 2 Major Hurricanes
  • 0 Landfalls

The Prediction:

  • 14-20 named storms
  • 8-12 Hurricanes
  • 4-6 Major Hurricanes

We’re on pace it would seem.

Here Comes Earl!

And two of his friends!

What started as a slow season has suddenly picked up wind, pardon the pun.  Behind Earl we have Fiona and Gaston, both named.  Both tropical storms.

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Hurricane: Update

Remember, the latest prediction is:

The updated forecast calls for 14 to 20 named tropical storms.


Eight to 12 storms could become hurricanes, and four to six of those hurricanes could become major storms, blowing winds of 111 mph or more, forecasters said.

With that said, today’s development:

Tropical Storm Earl has formed in the open Atlantic Ocean, but the system is far from land.

Earl has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph (65 kph) and is expected to become a hurricane by Friday.

That means we have:

  • 5 Named Storms
  • 2 Hurricanes

By the end of August we should see:

  • 7-10 Named storms
  • 4-6 hurricanes

That means in the next 5 days we would need to see:

  • 2-5 Named storms
  • 2-4 hurricanes

I expect zero new named storms with 1 new hurricane; Earl.

Hurricane Season: Danielle

We now have the fourth named storm of the 2010 season:

MIAMI – Tropical Storm Danielle has formed in the Atlantic, but the system is still far from land.

Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center in Miami said Sunday that Danielle had maximum sustained winds of 40 mph (65 kph) and the storm is expected to strengthen over the next couple of days.

The National Hurricane Center recently revised their forecast to:

14 to 20 named tropical storms

The season runs from June through November; 6 months.  We are nearly finished with August; half way.  That means we should have seen 7-10 by now.  We’re at 4.


Eight to 12 storms could become hurricanes…

So far we have zero, we should be near 4-6 by now.

Stay tuned…