Tag Archives: 2014 Election

Election Night

Election Night

With Arkansas now in, the republicans need 10 more wins and stand and need net +4 to win the senate.


Early results are following expectations.

Kentucky to McConnell and the republicans sweep South Carolina.  That’s 3.

As a side point – South Carolina just elected the first black senator from the South and just the 5th ever.  Further, they elected a Indian-American woman as governor.

Battle For the Senate -2014 Election Tracker

Republican vs Democrat

Tuesday is a big day – the control of the Senate will be decided as 36 Senate seats are up for election.  For fun I’ve been watching the polling and have been keeping track of the races.  My spreadsheet is below and shows the races not up for election and the ones I’ve called:


Contest Republican Democrat
Not 2014 Election 30 34
North Carolina
Colorado 1
Louisiana 1
New Hampshire 1
Arkansas 1
Minnesota 1
Kentucky 1
West Virginia 1
Michigan 1
Virginia 1
New Mexico 1
South Dakota 1
Mississippi 1
Illinois 1
Oregon 1
South Carolina 1
Maine 1
Tennessee 1
Deleware 1
Montana 1
South Carolina 1
New Jersey 1
Nebraska 1
Idaho 1
Massachhusetts 1
Hawaii 1
Rhode Island 1
Texas 1
Oklahoma 1
Oklahoma 1
Wyoming 1
Alabama 1
Total Seats 49 46

Going into the election I have Republicans needing 2 to win and Democrats needing 4.  The races in play are listed above.

Stay tuned for election night results.

538 Reason The Left Is Going To Explode

538As I mature in my political dialogs, I’m really trying to control the partisan in me and rely more and more on data.

It’s hard to dispute the success of Nate Silver inn 2012.

But THIS is going to make democrats and the left in general go crazy:

Our new forecast goes a half-step further: We think the Republicans are now slight favorites to win at least six seats and capture the chamber. The Democrats’ position has deteriorated somewhat since last summer, with President Obama’s approval ratings down to 42 or 43 percent from an average of about 45 percent before. Furthermore, as compared with 2010 or 2012, the GOP has done a better job of recruiting credible candidates, with some exceptions.


Silver gave Republicans a 60 percent chance of wresting the Senate out of Harry Reid’s hands—a big blow to the final two years of the Obama presidency.


Democrat Mike McIntyre Retires

Mike McIntyre Retires

A nine time congressman is calling it quits.  In a statement released this afternoon, Mike McIntyre is going to retire at the end of his current term.

Continue reading

North Carolina Senate Seat – Kay Hagan

Already there is talk about the 2014 elections.


I never really cared about politics until about 2006.  That’s when I heard a bit of trivia concerning the upcoming 2008 Presidential primaries.  For the first time in a long time there would be no sitting President or Vice-President running.  It would be a wide open primary on both sides.


Since then I’ve paid more attention and am just now learning that there isn’t a time when someone isn’t thinking about the next election.  With that said, North Carolina has a senate seat up for bid this time around.

And the front runner is democrat Kay Hagan:

 The Rothenberg Political Report ranks U.S. Sen. Kay Hagan’s seat “leans Democrat” in the first 2014 Senate election ratings. The report – a leading Washington handicapper – says: “Given the GOP’s recent victories in the state, Hagan is almost guaranteed a serious challenge.”

The Washington Post’s political prognosticators rank the race No. 4 on their list of most competitive Senate seats. The write-up: “A recent poll from Democratic-leaning automated pollster Public Policy Polling shows Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan’s approval rating is underwater, but she nonetheless leads potential GOP competitors. If Republicans can find the right candidate, Hagan will face a tough road to reelection.”

Ms. Hagan ran in 2008 when Barack Obama’s ticket carried many a democrat to office.  However, even without Obama carrying her, I would have voted for her except for one thing: The senate was in danger of, and then did in fact, move into democratic super-majority status.  Our sitting senator at the time was Elizabeth Dole, a rather nondescript politician without a large base.  Further, she ran an especially nasty ad featuring Hagan that sealed the deal for me – almost.

I like the idea of splitting senators.  I like that Hagan spent time in the state government of North Carolina and I thought she was moderate enough.  But I just couldn’t vote for her and let the democrats get 60 seats.  Of course, as we all know, they did.  Alaska elected a democrat after their republican was subject to scandal.  And then Minnesota allowed that dipshit Al Franken to cheat his way into office and seal the deal.

Hagan is going to vote for Harry Reid if she wins.  And she’ll support most of his legislation.  However, she is relatively moderate scoring 56,52 and 76 percent more liberal than her senate peers on issues economic, social and foreign policy.

If we have to have a democrat represent us in Washington we could do worse.  And with the recent republican domination in the state, sending a moderate liberal voice to the senate might be a good thing.  The only condition that might sway me from supporting her is the balance of the senate.  If it gets close to moving past 55-45 like it is now, I am going to pull for a Hagan loss.

The State Of The State Of North Carolina

Back and forth – forth and back.

Carolina is back to trending Romney:

Raleigh, N.C. — Mitt Romney has moved ahead of President Barack Obama in North Carolina in the final week before the election, according to a WRAL News poll released Tuesday.

SurveyUSA polled 682 likely voters statewide between Saturday and Monday and found that 50 percent would vote for Romney and 45 percent for Obama if the election were held now. The remaining 5 percent were either undecided or voting for another candidate.

The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.

In a WRAL News poll conducted four weeks ago, Obama and Romney were in a virtual dead heat for North Carolina’s 15 electoral votes, with Obama at 49 percent and Romney at 47 percent.