Updated Electoral College: Silver vs. Rove vs. Pino

I was reviewing the data and adding some additional information when I realized I put Florida in the wrong group; Florida is a “contested state.”  Rove and Silver have it going different from each other.

Additionally I added my picks, the real value [updated as the races are called] and then Silver’s prediction confidence.

If you look at Silver as a basketball player and use his confidence % as his shooting percentage from different places on the floor, he has a 45.5% of hitting every “contested shot” excluding Florida.  That success rate drops to 24.2 if you include Florida.

That means there’s a better than 50 – 50 chance he gets one wrong.

Leave a Reply