Shifting Priorities

I’m a week late on this; it’s been in my stack for awhile and the latest polling numbers from Gallup and Real Clear Politics reminded me that I need to push this out the door:

Suffolk University pollster David Paleologos, whose polls are aggregated into mainstream averages to show where the presidential race stands in the swing states, said he’s finished polling in Florida, North Carolina and Virginia because President Obama has no shot of winning those states.

“I think in places like North Carolina, Virginia and Florida, we’ve already painted those red, we’re not polling any of those states again,” Paleologos said Tuesday night on Fox’s “The O’Reilly Factor.” “We’re focusing on the remaining states.”

To be sure, Suffolk isn’t a polling firm I’m familiar with and they may very well be wrong.  But when a guy is watching trends this is big.

2 responses to “Shifting Priorities

  1. Other large pollsters have said his claims are odd, especially since Suffolk had not done recent polling in those states. I suspect he was rationalizing where they put their resources. After he made that statement a Quinnipiac poll showed Obama up five in Virginia (a week after the first debate), and Florida polls have shown Romney with small leads of one or two points (though over a week ago there was one outlier showing a seven point lead for Romney). North Carolina does seem to have shifted to Romney, recent polls have him up 6, 2, 3, and 4. (There was a Gravis Marketing poll that had him up 9, but Gravis is not a trustworthy poll).

  2. Today (10-20) Survey USA has Obama up one in Florida, and PPP has Obama up 1 in Virginia. Those are statistically insignificant leads, but clearly those states remain tight. It may end up being determined by the GOTV efforts.

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