Steady upwards track since April. Intrade has it at 75% that the law is struck down.
Supreme Court decisions are hard to predict since you can’t tell by public opinion trends. I think the intrade odds reflect response to public buzz which may or may not be in sync with the secret discussions between the justices. I’m not saying the prediction is wrong, only that Intrade is best for questions for which there is a lot of knowledge (e.g., polls for elections, etc.) Either way, it should be an interesting ruling!
Either way, it should be an interesting ruling!
I think they find the mandate unconstitutional. I don’t know if they sever it or not.
The Dems did have the severability clause in and then took it out; on purpose or accident? If they do strike the mandate, with or without the whole rest of the law, congress will have to get something else done.
And that might be a good thing.