Very little has changed:
State | Status | Democrat | Republican | Incumbent | Front Runner | Spread |
CT | Ret. Dem | Blumenthal | McMahon | Democrat | Democrat | 12.5 |
DE | Ret. Dem | Coons | O’Donnell | Democrat | Democrat | 17.2 |
IL | Ret. Dem | Giannoulias | Kirk | Democrat | Republican | 2.8 |
IN | Ret. Dem | Ellsworth | Coats | Democrat | Republican | 19.3 |
ND | Ret. Dem | Heitkamp | Hoeven | Democrat | Republican | 47 |
As you can see, there are still 3 Republican wins.
And the races with retiring Republicans is the same as well, all Republican wins.
The situation where the Democrat is facing the end of the term is also the same, only with a bit more clarity:
State | Status | Democrat | Republican | Incumbent | Front Runner | Spread |
AR | Term Dem | Lincoln | Boozman | Democrat | Republican | 16.7 |
CA | Term Dem | Boxer | Fiorina | Democrat | Democrat | 6.4 |
CO | Term Dem | Bennet | Buck | Democrat | Republican | 1.6 |
HI | Term Dem | Democrat | Democrat | |||
MD | Term Dem | Democrat | Democrat | |||
NV | Term Dem | Reid | Angle | Democrat | Republican | 1.8 |
NY | Term Dem | Gillibrand | Blakeman | Democrat | Democrat | 22.4 |
NY | Term Dem | Democrat | Democrat | |||
OR | Term Dem | Wyden | Huffman | Democrat | Democrat | 18 |
PA | Term Dem | Sestak | Toomey | Democrat | Republican | 3.2 |
VE | Term Dem | Democrat | Democrat | |||
WA | Term Dem | Murray | Rossi | Democrat | Democrat | 2.2 |
WI | Term Dem | Feingold | Johnson | Democrat | Republican | 6 |
Still, the Republicans walk with 5.
And, where Republicans are facing the end of the term, again, no Democrat wins.
I still see an 8 seat swing for the Republicans.
Dems – 51 Republicans 49.
However, the smart money doesn’t agree with me:
You make the call. Either way, a good day at the office for the Republicans.