Senate Race 2010: VII

Been awhile. As predicted, the races are gelling, firming up. There are run a ways and there are tight races. In some cases the candidates have swapped front-runner position. Here is the rundown:

State	Circumstance	Democrat	Republican	Incumbent	Front Runner	Spread
CT	Retiring Dem	Blumenthal	McMahon	Democrat	Democrat	16.3
DE	Retiring Dem	Coons	Castle	Democrat	Republican	11
IL	Retiring Dem	Giannoulias	Kirk	Democrat	Democrat	1.7
IN	Retiring Dem	Ellsworth	Coats	Democrat	Republican	21
ND	Retiring Dem	Heitkamp	Hoeven	Democrat	Republican	27

This is an interesting group. And only because we are seeing a much tighter race in Illinois than folks anticipated. The reason? This is Barack Obama’s seat; the Dems can NOT afford to lose this one. They are pouring it on. My prediction? They lose it.

+4 to the Republicans

State	Circumstance	Democrat	Republican	Incumbent	Front Runner
FL	Retiring Rep	Crist	Rubio	Republican	Independent
KS	Retiring Rep			Republican	Republican
KY	Retiring Rep	Conway	Paul	Republican	Republican
MO	Retiring Rep	Carnahan	Blunt	Republican	Republican
NH	Retiring Rep	Hodes	Republican	Republican	Republican
OH	Retiring Rep	Fisher	Portman	Republican	Democrat

This one has stayed stable. Ohio remains a wild card but so does Florida. I stay with my original prediction that the Dems take a seat/

-1 to the Republicans.

State	Circumstance	Democrat	Republican	Incumbent	Front Runner	Spread
AR	Term Dem	Lincoln	Boozman	Democrat	Republican	25
CA	Term Dem	Boxer	Fiorina	Democrat	Democrat	4.4
CO	Term Dem	Bennet	Norton	Democrat	Republican	6
HI	Term Dem			Democrat	Democrat
MD	Term Dem			Democrat	Democrat
NV	Term Dem	Reid	Angle	Democrat	Democrat	1.6
NY	Term Dem	Gillibrand	Blakeman	Democrat	Democrat	17.7
NY	Term Dem			Democrat	Democrat
OR	Term Dem	Wyden	Huffman	Democrat	Democrat	17
PA	Term Dem	Sestak	Toomey	Democrat	Republican	2
VE	Term Dem			Democrat	Democrat
WA	Term Dem	Murray	Rossi	Democrat	Democrat	2
WI	Term Dem	Feingold	Johnson	Democrat	Republican	2

And then this group; crazy! Washington and Wisconsin are in the mix. And Nevada is back in play. I no longer think the Dems will split Colorado and Pennsylvania; the Republicans will take ’em both. Nevada back in play with Wisconsin and Washington? Repubs get one of ’em.

Republicans +4

And the termed Repubs? No chance for the Democrats to steal one.

Final score? Republicans +7. 52-48.