For the 23rd consecutive month, the NY Fed says that the chance of recession in the next 12 months is under 1%. However, for only the second time in 8 months has that value gone up.
The Twins have a better chance of winning the, um, of winning the, jeez, of winning the Division than we have of going into recession in the next 12 months.
As I mentioned in a recent post, I was called out by TJIC. He felt that a 200 : 1 odds wasn’t accurate. In fact, if you go to INTRADE, you will see that the odds are:
TJIC is correct, the chance that we go into recession, determined by actual betters, is much higher. By a factor of a hundred in 2010 and 200 in 2011.
And like I said in that recent post of mine:
I continue to the “Chance of Recession” as it really is a rating of some interest rate spreads. However, I have added 4 measures:
- A rolling 6 month average
- A rolling 3 month average
- A 10 month climbing trend
- a 4 month climbing trend
I have updated my data and even with those 4 new values, I see virtually no chance of recession for the next 12 months.
