Senate Race 2010: VI

Almost every state has completed it’s primary. The contestants are well understood. Some folks are calling for a switch in both chambers. While I’m not following the House elections, I just don’t see it in the Senate.

In the first group, we have retiring Democrats:

State	Circumstance	Democrat	Republican	Incumbent	Front Runner	Spread
CT	Retiring Dem	Blumenthal	McMahon	Democrat	Democrat	20.6
DE	Retiring Dem	Coons	Castle	Democrat	Republican	20
IL	Retiring Dem	Giannoulias	Kirk	Democrat	Republican	3.3
IN	Retiring Dem	Ellsworth	Coats	Democrat	Republican	10.4
ND	Retiring Dem	Heitkamp	Hoeven	Democrat	Republican	27

I see the Republicans winning 4 of the 5 seats.

SCORE Democrats 55 Republicans 45

The next group is retiring Republicans:

State	Circumstance	Democrat	Republican	Incumbent	Front Runner	Spread
FL	Retiring Rep	Crist	Rubio	Republican	Independent	4.8
KS	Retiring Rep			Republican	Republican
KY	Retiring Rep	Conway	Paul	Republican	Republican	5.7
MO	Retiring Rep	Carnahan	Blunt	Republican	Republican	4.5
NH	Retiring Rep	Hodes	Republican	Republican	Republican	8
OH	Retiring Rep	Fisher	Portman	Republican	Democrat	1.3

This one is tricky; Crist throws a monkey wrench in the whole thing. I think he’ll win and caucus with the Republicans.

SCORE: Democrats 56 Republicans 44

The next group is End of Term Democrats:

State	Circumstance	Democrat	Republican	Incumbent	Front Runner	Spread
AR	Term Dem	Lincoln	Boozman	Democrat	Republican	22
CA	Term Dem	Boxer	Fiorina	Democrat	Democrat	6.4
CO	Term Dem	Bennet	Norton	Democrat	Republican	2
HI	Term Dem			Democrat	Democrat
MD	Term Dem			Democrat	Democrat
NV	Term Dem	Reid	Angle	Democrat	Republican	1.3
NY	Term Dem	Gillibrand	Blakeman	Democrat	Democrat	17.7
NY	Term Dem			Democrat	Democrat
OR	Term Dem	Wyden	Huffman	Democrat	Democrat	11.5
PA	Term Dem	Sestak	Toomey	Democrat	Republican	1.4
VE	Term Dem			Democrat	Democrat
WA	Term Dem	Murray	Rossi	Democrat	Democrat	3
WI	Term Dem	Feingold	Johnson	Democrat	Democrat	1

Again, tricky. I think Nevada will switch. I bet we split Colorado and Pennsylvania.

SCORE: Democrats 54 Republicans 46

And the last group; End of Term Republicans:

AL	Term Repub			Republican	Republican
AK	Term Repub			Republican	Republican
AZ	Term Repub	Glassman	Republican	Republican	Republican	25	06/28/10
GA	Term Repub			Republican	Republican
ID	Term Repub			Republican	Republican
IA	Term Repub	Conlin	Grassley	Republican	Republican	17	06/28/10
NC	Term Repub	Marshall	Burr	Republican	Republican	6	06/28/10
OK	Term Repub			Republican	Republican
LA	Term Repub	Melancon	Vitter	Republican	Republican	15.7	06/28/10
SC	Term Repub			Republican	Republican
SD	Term Repub			Republican	Republican
UT	Term Repub			Republican	Republican