If anything has changed in the last month it’s the fact that the chance of recession reduced by 20%. We went from the ridiculously low chance of .055% all the way down to .041%. The only times in the last 50 years it has been this low was in 1983 for 2 consecutive months; August and September.
As for the “current” recession, NBER takes an exceptionally long time to officially declare the end, up to 24 months. As I have been on the record as saying, I think the recession ended late May 2009; NBER won’t score it until January 2011, longer if I am wrong.