# June 6, 2010: Chance of Recession in the Next 12 Months — 00.041%

If anything has changed in the last month it’s the fact that the chance of recession reduced by 20%.  We went from the ridiculously low chance of .055% all the way down to .041%.  The only times in the last 50 years it has been this low was in 1983 for 2 consecutive months; August and September.

As for the “current” recession, NBER takes an exceptionally long time to officially declare the end, up to 24 months.  As I have been on the record as saying, I think the recession ended late May 2009; NBER won’t score it until January 2011, longer if I am wrong.

### 2 responses to “June 6, 2010: Chance of Recession in the Next 12 Months — 00.041%”

1. > .041%

So you think that the chance of a recession is 200:1 against?

Tell you what, I’ll offer you great odds – 100:1 (that’s twice what the data suggests).

If we stay out of recession, I’ll give you \$10.

If we go back in, you give me \$1,000.

Interested?

If not, then I suggest that you don’t actually trust those numbers.

2. If we stay out of recession, I’ll give you \$10.

If we go back in, you give me \$1,000.

Gotta admit, when placed in that context, it changes the tone and timber.

Interested?

No.

I can get better numbers at: