May 3, 2010: Chance of Recession in the Next 12 Months — 00.055%

Nothing has changed in one month.  The New York Fed continues to report the chance of Recession at 0.055%.  Looking good heading into summer.

As a note, the NBER usually reports that a recession has ended about 20 months after that recession ended.  I have been saying the “current” recession ended in the end of May, 2009.  20 months after May 2009 is January 2011.  Some folks think I’m early, which means NBER won’t report until AFTER February 2011.  We have a bit of a wait.

Chance of Recession May, 2011