Senate Race 2010: III

I have covered the open seats.  Those currently held by Democrats and those held by Republicans.  So far, I have it D-57 and R-43.

This year the Democrats have 14 seats that they are going to have an incumbent defend.  In an off year for them, they are going to struggle in several; maybe many.  Here they are:

State Incumbant Party R-Candidate D-Candidate Leader Spread
AR D Republican Lincoln R 10
CA D Republican Boxer D 8
CO D Republican Bennet R 9
HI D Republican Inouye D Wide
IN D Republican Bayh D 12
MD D Republican Mikulski D Wide
NV D Republican Reid R 8.7
NY D Republican Gillibrand D 8
NY D Republican Schumer D Wide
OR D Republican Wyden D Wide
PA D Toomey Democrat R 8.5
VT D Republican Leahy D Wide
WA D Rossi Murray R 2
WI D Republican Feingold D Wide

As we can see, it is NOT a slam dunk for the Donkeys.  Republicans are in the lead in 5 races with Gillibrand and Boxer far from sure things.  To further complicate the matter, Bayh announced his retirement today.  By doing this, it moved a seat from a very safe calculus to one that is really leaning to the Republicans.  Still, several of the races are seen to be so safe for the Dems that there is very little polling being done.  Now, to be fair, so was the case 3-4 months ago when Mr. Brown was running in Massachusetts.  Stay tuned.

Right now, the way I see it–the Republicans win 4 seats; Arkansas, Colorado, Nevada and Pennsylvania.  I think Washington will trend back to the Left and the Dems will hold that one.  Indiana could be close; they are a Republican state but may enjoy splitting their votes.  I really don’t see Boxer losing but then again Gillibrand could be beat.  Given equal odds for each upset, I think that they will hold serve or upset each other.

In short, Republicans gain 4 seats.

Score:  D-53   R-47

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